View Full Version : BETTING 25/06
GERMANY 2.15
DRAW... 3.00
S KOREA 3.75
specialweek
25-06-2002, 07:35
hobbes,
I am a little confused as to your prices.
I know you pointed the fact out to PD about his book and perhaps his book was a little too generous, but how can you offer 3's about a draw as there is no such thing?
specialweek the dividends i quote are for 90 minutes only which is the standard english / european way of betting. actually the asians use a much more sophisticated method with 1/2 goal or 1 goal h'caps so there are only 2 results not 3.
the draw at 90 minustes can then be split into extra time win for team a + ET win team b + penalty win team a + pen win team b.
so if the draw is $3 or 33.3% the ET wins and penalites should be around 8% or $12, so i thought PD's prices where a bit skiny for the ET and penalties on the whole. AS Hobbes took advantage of!!!!
[ June 25, 2002: Message edited by: Scarper ]
new prices
GERMANY 2.10
DRAW... 3.15
S KOREA 3.90
just had a look at a few sites re the draw and golden goal or penality prices, and they seem to be fairly ridged with the draw and all the GG, pen prices. i cant imagine that they dont research these prices but i imagine there should be more variance.
anyone got any stats on knockout comps GG or PEN CHANCES???
this isnt my market (from betfair) but it seems to me the germany GG should be shorter c/f the korea GG and both shorter than the penalties.
germany 90 -- 2.15 = 46.5%
germany GG -- 10.5 = 9.5%
germany pen - 11.0 = 9.1%
korea 90 ---- 4.10 = 24.4%
korea GG ---- 12.5 = 8%
korea pen --- 12.5 = 8%
total 105.5%
these prices indicate that there is a 50% chance that there will be no goals scored in ET(both GG and pen are the same price). can that be true, would love to get the stats. the 90min draw is a 34.6/105.5 = 32.8% chance which seems ok.
Have not searched for any stats on GG or penalties because I suspect the number of games would not be large enough to have any significance. As for this WC so far, of the 12 knockout games -- 8 2nd round matches + 4 quarterfinals -- 7 were decided within 90 mins, 3 by GG and 2 by penalties.
Btw, both penalty matches involved Spain: they won one (beating Ireland) and lost one (to Korea).
corkey boy
25-06-2002, 19:13
I have 40K on South Korea in normal time please hobbesy.
7k on Korea to win within 90 mins @3.90.
100k korea @ 3.9 please hobbes.
Horny Harry
26-06-2002, 00:45
Harry would like 100,000 on the draw please and 200,00 on South Korea ( I think that they will be trying harder and have a home town advantage)
50,000 on South Korea please Hobbes...go the reds.
corkey boy
26-06-2002, 03:32
Hobbes cleans up per usual. Fucking Krauts, get into the final without playing a team ranked in the top 20 ! With a bunch of no names to boot !
Winfried will be happy no doubt.
[ June 25, 2002: Message edited by: corkey boy ]
Would be an interesting or even a politically highly charged match if it turns out to be a Germany v Turkey final. There are many Turks in Germany and some members of the Turkish team were in fact born in Germany and don't speak Turkish very well.
yeah cant agree more corkey - the germans are not final material, and they can even shoot at goal without screwing it up totally - but thats the luck of the draw!
i vote the wc is returned to the 1st round - 2nd round, quarter, semi, final system where the second round is another group of four and the top two teams go through to the quarter finals.
[ June 26, 2002: Message edited by: Scarper ]
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