World Cup J4F Discussions

[masun]

The WCJ4F has been quite an educational experience for me and there are a few things worth talking about. Since I don't want to clutter the main thread with non-betting related messages, I am start this new thread for discussions on the competition.
To kick off this thread, after reading hobbes's comment re what the true price of the red card specials should be in the "Bank of Roswell" thread, I decided to have a look at past World Cup statistics:
98
--
Number of games 64
Total goals scored 171
Average per game 2,67
Sendings off 22
Own goals 4
94
--
Number of games 52
Total goals scored 141
Average per game 2,71
Sendings off 15
Own goals 1
90
--
Number of games 52
Total goals scored 115
Average per game 2,21
Sendings off 16
Own goals None
Average no. of red cards per match:
98: 22/64 = 0.34
94: 15/52 = 0.29
90: 16/52 = 0.31
Of course in some matches more than one players were sent off but the number of such matches should be quite small. So let's say on average there's an approx. 1/3 chance that a player will be sent off in a match. Since Rosewell's initial deal was $5,000 for a $50,000 bonus, in fact it was a very good deal.

[Horny Harry]

Thanks for that information Masun!
I can se now that hobbes can definatly not be trusted. 9-1 bah haumbug!

[hobbes]

i stand corrected masun. hey i never claimed to be a soccer expert anyway.
nevertheless my impression from watching english, italian and spanish games across some years led me to guess a red card occurred less than 1 game in 10 ( feel free to correct me again ).
it would seem they are much tougher in the WC. ( or p'raps the additional pressure causes the players to lose their cool more often ). :confused: :confused: confused.gif

[Seabiscuit]

Masun, do you have any further stats on red cards. Such as red cards per country or referee or round of the tournament etc?
It seems to me the chances of a red card could vary in each game based on these and other variables. For example someone once told me (and don't know if it is true) that in Germany people don't cross the road if the light is red but no cars are coming. So if this is true then Maybe Germans are great respecters of rules and so unlikely to incur red cards (or less likely than average). Also South Africans have a reputation (don't know if is true) for being great respecters of authority. So in a Germany v South Africa game the odds of a red card might be 100-1 not 2-1.
Also the other night that Chinese ref in the Brazil v Turkey game seemed a bit trigger happy with the red cards. So I think the ref might be relevant.

[masun]

Seabiscuit, check out this link for some red card statistics:
http://www.worldcuparchive.com/STATS/stat_disc.html

[masun]

For example someone once told me (and don't know if it is true) that in Germany people don't cross the road if the light is red but no cars are coming.
Don't know what it is like now but it was certainly true when I visited Germany some years ago. I was out one night and had to cross the road. There were no cars and the streets were almost empty save for two Germans (and me of course). The red light was on. I looked at the Germans. They didn't cross the road. So I followed their example and waited...and waited for what seemed like an eternity. This eposide stuck in my mind because to this day I stil can't decide whether it is an example of German discipline or rigidity.

[masun]

nevertheless my impression from watching english, italian and spanish games across some years led me to guess a red card occurred less than 1 game in 10.
After much digging -- I didn't realise there are so many soccer databases out there -- I've found these figures:
Average no. of red cards per match in the 2001-2002 season
English Premier League 0.08
Italian Serie A 0.09
Spanish La Liga 0.02
German Bundesliga 0.10
I wonder if the figure for the Spanish league is correct because it's so out of whack with the other countries.
Anyway, based on the above figures, one can say that there's a player sent off every 10 matches or so in the major European leagues.

[hobbes]

thx for the stats masun. you are a true champion.
They didn't cross the road. So I followed their example and waited...and waited for what seemed like an eternity.
well fuck that for a joke -- i would have crossed the road -- as i do routinely every night when i am out in wanchai ( i thought red lights were optional ).

[masun]

Strongly disagree about the fractions - any punter worth his salt will tell you fractions in sportsbetting is what it is all about.
Toerag can you please elaborate? I know little about sports betting and so would appreciate your enlightenment.

[toerag]

I have my own price range. To bet that price range correctly I must be able to place the precise amount (using $100 unit for the sake of this game) providing the book is offering me an advantage.
I hope that my advantage is correct. For me to be profitable I have to be right about selecting the best chances ... plenty of times :( .
Now back to a great game of football.
[ June 07, 2002: Message edited by: toerag ]

[masun]

In the real world best you could do would be .01/.03 on one game in a 1000 and that to a sum that would be hardly worth the effort.
I just had a look at the betbrain site to see how true this is. I just looked at the 10 most popular matches listed on the front page and checked the best odds on offer:
South Africa v Slovenia match.
http://www.betbrain.com/odds/showmatch.jsp?matchId=88286
At the time of my visit, the highest odds were:
Highest 3.40 3.40 3.00
Converted to probabilities, these become:
29% 29% 33% => total = 91%
Cameroon v Germany
http://www.betbrain.com/odds/showmatch.jsp?matchId=88306
Highest 4.50 3.70 2.25
22% 27% 44% => total = 93%
So there might be more arbitraging opportunities in the real world than we think?

[toerag]

Yes, maybe so but there is a lot of books to open accounts with and there are limits ... in the case of 'Fonbet' (3.40 listed below) ...
" .... minimum bet stake on any single event is $2, and $1 on a combo bet. The minimum stake on one combination in a system bet is $0.5 (but minimum $3 overall stake on the whole system). The maximum bet stake is up to 2000$, and is determined by the corporation for each event.(Soccer - $2000, American sports (NBA, NHL, MLB, NFL) - $1000, tennis - $400, other events $100-$300) Maximum winnings for one bet are 10000$. Maximum winnings for one client per week (Monday through Sunday) are 20000$ ..." - this practice is not uncommon.
It is a common marketing practice for 'new' net sportsbetting companies to offer a loss-taker to get clients signed up and their money in the books bank account where their money-people can work the financial markets.
Also, with Germany I think there are taxation issues for international transfer of funds - in and out. AND I frankly would not bet with a company that was not properly accredited by institutional bodies.
Personally speaking, the Australian companies offer competitive odds to reasonable amounts (Canbet, Centrebet, TABsportsbooks). They have forced the large 'tax-free' European firms into playing a very competitive market.
[ June 08, 2002: Message edited by: toerag ]

[masun]

I frankly would not bet with a company that was not properly accredited by institutional bodies.
Which are the relevant institutional bodies?

[hobbes]

Personally speaking, the Australian companies offer competitive odds to reasonable amounts (Canbet, Centrebet, TABsportsbooks). They have forced the large 'tax-free' European firms into playing a very competitive market.
no way toerag. the European firms would have been forced to lower their vig by the vastly bigger asian markets with a 2.5% vig not those mickey mouse australian books. back in '94 the max they might have set one for was A$20k -- not even worth opening an account for such trivial sums ( by asian standards ).

[toerag]

Bookmaking firms in Australia are heavily regulated by the government so your funds are guaranteed. Bookmakers in the UK also have an assoc. and many of their internet sites carry an accreditation even though many large UK firms operate out of Gibaltar/Isle of Wright - warranty still applies. Books based in the US are also strongly regulated.
I would be careful about Carribean firms unless they are very big (T/O) and anyway they are usually an affilate of a major corporation.
In short, read the rules, read about the company etc --- research - there are plenty of BB's about and punt smart :) .

[masun]

Do you guys have any idea how the bookies set their soccer odds? I remember reading somewhere that as far as horse racing is concerned, most of the smaller Aussie bookies use ratings provided by a certain company and then adjust their markets based on the amount of money received. Is there a similar provider of soccer and/or sportsbetting odds? Surely it can't be the case that all the bookies have huge computer dept to do the necessary number crunching.