Guest writers

[Horny Harry]

Perils of Winning
noel moitra noelmoitra@now-india.com 9/16/2002
It is sad that a horse that reaches Class 1 on outstanding form and obvious merit are condemned to run at backbreaking weights throughout its career. The `A` family is an outstanding example : Appeaser,Alchemy,Alameda,Acrobat and others like Bold Chieftan and Mega Top,handicapped at the highest rating.
This is a serious case of blackballing by weight,the judge and jury being the same. Such horses may get one in a lifetime run at lower weights,Acrobat being one.At 50 kg,he won recently in Race 137. I was disheartened by the distances between Acrobat and Self-Styled who ran a blinder and now stands exposed. In next to no time, this game tryer will be in Class 1 at midweight.Aslam Kader ran a poor race as he should have won by a distance!Acrobat had won a similar race in Bangalore but at 59 or 60 Kg, I can`t recall.Perhaps he was briefed to just win, who knows? The penalty imposed on him is just 0.5 kg [from 117 to 118]. No wonder that this lot of horses share wins against each other, being owned by the same owner. The handicapper tends to use such horses as the data-base to handicap other horses. This system is a sad example of muzzling good horses. What then is the remedy?

[Horny Harry]

KUNAAL Date : 9/19/2002
Subject : BEWARE OF RACE FIXING Click on
Message :
EVERY NOW AND THEN WE COME TO HEAR FROM PEOPLE AROUND US THAT ALMOST ALL THE RACES ARE FIXED, WELL WHAT DO YOU SAY WOULD YOU BELEIVE ON ALL THIS STUFF. HEY C`MON IT HARDLY MATTERS BECAUSE WE ALL ARE SO MUCH INVOLVED INTO THIS FIELD THAT NOBODY OF US CAN COME OUT OF IT SO THE PROBLEM IS THAT WE ARE EXCEPTING IT WITH ARE EYES WIDE OPEN. THIS RACING SHIP IS OWNED BY BIG SHOTS TRAINED BY HUGE LOTS AND RIDEN BY FEW TOTS, (ALL IN THE FAMILY) WE START WITH MAKING IT OUR HOBBY AND END UP BEING A PROFESSIONAL BY MAKING IT OUR FULL TIME PROFFESSION, WE DO HAVE OTHER WORKS IN OUR HANDS TOO BUT COOL OFF MAN IT`S JUST TO PRESENT OURSELVES IN THE PUBLIC. WE ALL KNOW BOKKIES ARE ALWAYS THE GAINERS AND PUNTERS ALWAYS A LOOSER AND IT`S GONNA BE LIKE THIS ALWAYS. THESE DAYS THE FAVOURITE HORSES ARE SUPPOSED TO COME FIRST FROM THE VERY BACK AND THE BACKMARKERS ARE WINNING LIKE NEVER BEFORE, I KNOW NOTHING IS GONNA CHANGE BUT ATLEAST SOME OF US CAN CHANGE THIS SOMEDAY. I WILL WAIT FOR THAT DAY TO PLACE MY BET TILL THEN KEEP YOU EYES WIDE OPEN THERE IS MORE AND MORE TO COME MY FRIEND.

[Horny Harry]

TIPS & TRICKS
noelmoitra noelmoitra@now-india.com 9/22/2002
TRICKS OF THE TRADE:HOW TO ASSESS HORSES
There is much behind the old saw: ‘Horses for Courses’. This term was introduced at least 300 years ago, by the Brits. This was when each Earl, Count, Lord or personage worth his name had his own string of horses and his own racecourse. Every racecourse has its own peculiarities and this led to the fact that local runners had an advantage.
So how do you assess horses? There are many factors that go into the complex algorithm to reduce a large field to four and then pick three. The best is for “Win”, the others for place. Lets look at some factors that are horse related:
a) Bloodline is always first. The cognoscenti keep their data secret, naturally so.Sometimes one has to go back three or four generations. The average generation being 6-7 years, it is important to go back 12-15 years. These horses tend to reach the higher classes and stay there. The Stallions generally start from the age of 5 or 6 , while the dams could be three year olds ! That’s fine, but what about the proletariat? Leave him to study the Race Cards
b) Balance of the horse. Without a saddle, it must stand out as a pretty picture. The entire body must be regular and totally straight: vertically and horizontally, except for the hump, which should be a smooth & regular curve. It should not look gross or have a sagging belly. When it walks, all muscles should flow freely. In a gentle run, every stride must be the same as different pairs of legs are involved. The neck must move gracefully. Horses that have a pronounced neck high movement will lose in a photo-finish.
c) Left alone, its tongue must not loll. It must appear lazy! It must not sweat too much, as that betrays an unsound temperament and a higher than normal heart rate. Such horses rarely cross 1200m.
d) On the gallop, one must not see a barrel-chested style. Only 75% of its chest should be visible front on, as one of the forelegs should cover 25% of its chest, indicative of a correct aerodynamic progress.
e) Tail swishers are best avoided. That betrays a vacuous mind.
f) The head should appear to move dead straight, which is an indicator of perfect balance.
g) The head must move in tandem with the Jockey’s head. This is a two-way thing as the Jockey must also co-operate. Nelson Reuben had the best posture onboard a horse and that’s why he was rated the best finisher ever, who rarely lost a close finish. The neck-reach forward must be with the minimum elevation of the head, as a 10-degree incline will cost the horse upto 6 inches of length ! I have seen a horse that was actually ahead of the other lose because the head was too high. Those who have seen the British hurdler Colin Jackson will recall that he dipped his head a good 12 inches to the wire.
Much more later, depending on response.
Noel Moitra

[Horny Harry]

wrong information by trainers
http://rubens.anu.edu.au/student.projects/tajmahal/216.GIF
palazzio alphie@emirates.net.ae 9/29/2002
After reading your article that Aerospace will turn class one sprinters as said by his trainer and Infinite will reach class one as said by his trainers where did they run this is all mis leading information to misguide the punters.After racing experience with more than 30 years and some connection with the people of the racing insiders some times trainers mis guide their Owners and even go to the extend to put the blame on small time Jockeys that they are not saitisfied if the riding but do they dare to compalin against any
senior Jockeys who are doing well as they have to rely on them for race gallops or giving runs in a particular race and to get the right information

[Horny Harry]

Tips and Tricks 4
noel moitra noelmoitra@now-india.com 10/14/2002
TIPS AND TRICKS –4
1. Please read my earlier article on ‘tips and tricks’ where I had stated that Horses blazing the track are best avoided as they are being re-conditioned. I gave you the example of Aldeburgh vs Nationalistic. I predicted that the roles would be reversed if these two ever met again, which is exactly what happened on Derby Day. I had a side bet with my colleague of one Pepsi and, boy, did I down it with relish.
2. Some more tips:
A] Never back an on money horse that is below half money. Play ‘Place’ only. I know of a big time punter who lost 5.7 Crores in Calcutta and today comes to the race-course and tries to borrow money to play. He is humiliated by one and all. His fault: Only backed odds on horses and put down 10 Lakhs on these horses. He sold off his entire empire worth 12 Crores for 6 crores and left in disgrace.
B] Always back a 3 yr old filly making its debut from Uttam Singh’s [ now his son’s] stables. Cover it with Place. If that filly is a 4 yr old debutant, put your shirt on it
C] Always back a decent horse owned by the Goculdas’ and trained, of course, by Lagad, BUT ONLY IN A TROPHY RACE. Incidentally, the elder Lagad never ever gave anyone any tips, including his own brother. I predicted a win for Tuglak at 40 to 1. You may say that I am shooting off after the race; I certainly accept your misgivings. I got this advice in 1977, 25 yrs ago and claim a 82% record. Think about it. This very same tipster now owns and runs a very profitable Restaurant in Delhi, all finance coming from Goculdas’ stables!
D] Download races if you can. Study the bend position. Any horse that is being whipped will not win in similar company.
E] Avoid the Litolier Family for now. I cannot explain why here.
F] Make a note of horses that invariably run wide throughout the race. It will not win that race but will spring a surprise when least expected. Study Appeaser’s runs. It has always lost by running 3 wide and won as it liked,once recently in a 1400 m race, of all things! A long distance runner and at the highest rating level today !
G] A known sprinter cannot win beyond 1600 m. A known stayer can win a sprint. Royal Tern and Wild Eagle are 2 examples.
More later
moitra

[imaufo]

Posted By: SexyGal Posted Date: 12/15/2002

Subject: Welcome Andy Nicholls

Good to see another talented Jockey in India! He`s sure learn many intricacies of racing, at this young age by being at the right place at the right Time.

Apart from honing his horsemanship, of course he will, by the end of Mumbai season, learn may things like:

1. How to make sure you will loose a certain race without incurring the wrath of officals(if at all).Gone are the days of how Robin Corner strangled Generous Patron, instead learn from how Kamlesh made sure he lost on RAMBUS or even better learn from YS Srinath how he made money on the latest racing farce while he lost a Certain One horse race on Dark Knight@ bangalore. Or better still learn from Mark Gallagher while he enacted a fine drama astride Fabulos Star while making sure "their" fancied Accede wins!


2.Keep the confidence of Trainers & Bookmakers rather than anything else. (which is paramount anyway). Again please refer on how Mark Gallgher quickly discarded his sporting owners in favor of rookies!


3. Mislead everyone by giving fake information on the potential of horses, here you can learn from the likes of Aslam Kader for his famed comparsion of " hall of Honor" (-- a very medicore race horse ) with a 8 Geared Car. or even trainers Imtiaz sait who declared in the press recently & with great confidence that his ward "Infinite` will reach ClassI before you say "hary the horse", while fully knowing it can hardly grace the board in the upper class!


4. more sophicticated stuff like providing fake feedback on horses to small time owners & trainers. This thing is what will cut him from the ordinary, while making millions overnight!eg: how pesi Shroff misled trainer Pradeep Annaih on the chances of his ward Tapitio Vs The Pelican !!

Good luck gentleman, more tips on the art of making big in small time soon !





:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

[Handy Harry]

noel moitra noelmoitra@aol.com 12/15/2002


1. It is all very well to know the theoretical considerations about how to assess a horse. It has to be put into practice some time. No matter how well versed with Racing one is, there is the final factor to be added, viz, the Human/ Racecourse factor. This one factor can blow all theory to smithereens. Let me use my own example of today.

2. I found it difficult to read the first two races, though Edelweiss seemed a good place prospect. I left out the first two races, since I do not bet till I am sure of winning. What happened next defies logic. This is what is called the “ Racecourse Effect”.

3. Yesterday, Hawke Bay ran away with his race, a quiet coup. The same combo was in the third race today, the horse being Estonia. I, along with my group played this horse for win at 4/1. There is more to follow. Zimbali is a full sister to Grand Passion who won her first 2 races by a ‘Distance” each time. One of our group saw a Syndicate Punter put 3.0 Lakh on Zimbali for Place at 6/1. So did we/I but at 5/1. Blind betting , with no logic behind it .

4. Backing Jockeys. JP Murtagh came down to run Mimosa and Free Radical. He is the current Champion Jockey in Ireland. Mimosa was backed down to 3/1 from 5/1. Spaniards Inn was too good to leave, so we played both to win, at 13/4 and 9/4 respectively. If either won, we would win. That is exactly what happened. Looking back with a saner perspective, Mimosa was run to give Murtagh a feel of the course. See how the atmosphere clouds rational thinking? Spaniards Inn was unbeatable.

5. Calculations. I had assessed the next race in my own way. I took Aerospace as a cinch and progressed through this line. I got the following result:

Distances from Aerospace:

Secret Path : Sh hd

The Avenger: Hd

Don’t Look Twice: 2.5 L

Royal Honey : Neck

Razia: minus 0.5 L.[ if fully fit ]

This was a case of Reductio ad Absurdum, as taught to us in school. Ergo, Aerospace would not win. Secret Path was available at 7/2 Place.

Cheers.

In the Guineas, the main factor was the Draw, with 22 horses in the field. Priceless was in the grey zone of 16/10 to 19/10, an indicator of uncertainty about this horse. Back came JP Murtagh and Free Radical. Shamaal was at a huge disadvantage at stall 19. Free Radical was freely available at 7s, Shamaal was at 3/1 Place. Bingo. Again, where did cold and rational assessments go? Out the window. Tomorrow, if you run Shamaal vs Free Radical on a one to one basis, Shamaal will win by 1 Length. The draw did her in. I, on my own, backed young Nicholls in both his runs. Divine Intervention, a lost entity came in third from nowhere, at 12/ 1 Place, 62/1 Win.



Now look at Shamaal’s owner/trainer and Jockey. The same as Cat’s Whiskers’. Another winner. Logic? NIL.

In the last race, my erudite friend’s calculations showed that Pink City should beat Ladybank by 3 L, Stunning Force by 3.5 L and that Montekin was a no-hoper. He played Pink City at 3/1 place. I played Nicholls each way and Pink City place. Pink City was a rational choice; so was Stunning Force for Place, not win. Yet, I played on instinct, not logic, though, on hindsight, Ladybank was at a 2 Kg dis-advantage vis a vis Stunning Force.


I am not saying that I am a top-class punter, far from it. I broke all the rules that I myself had spelt out in my Tips and Tricks. Yesterday I had lost Rs 170/-, the last 115/- on Nicholls. I won only my first bet and lost the next two. I recovered through totally unaccountable betting and freely admit that hindsight is the best winner. The human mind is fickle, no matter how much one preaches. Racing rules the waves, not Brittania.

Noel Moitra.





:eek: :eek: :eek: :p

[Handy Harry]

TIPS & TRICKS XVII- HOW TO ASSESS RACES


NOEL MOITRA noelmoitra@now-india.com 4/21/2003

A large number of people have asked me often as to how I pick long odds winners. My standard reply is: I just picked a winner, long odds are out of my control as 90% of all punters have very short memories or are unable to understand the data available in the Race Book.


Since the latest query was on DAOL vs Star Look, let me take you through the simplest method of sorting out a race. I, of my own, have derived an algorithm that caters for:

1. TRACK COND. + FALSE RAILS

2. STALL NO IN SPRINTS

3. QUALITY OF JOCKEY

4. PET DISTANCE, as well as certain other factors like Std Dev; double integration of the accn factor vs distance and stretch strength etc,etc.



Assumptions: N/A for beginners.



1. FOR 14-1800M, 1 sec = 5 kg as 1 sec= 7.5 Lengths.

2. For 11-1200m, I sec= 7.75 L

3. For 1000 m, 1 sec = 8.0 L



Every average horse has a Winning Rating Zone. This zone varies between 2-3 Rating Pts. Fully 20 % of the horses are either exceptional, above average and well below average. The Rating Zone changes with each race depending on whether a horse is on the way up or going downwards to reach its winning Zone. Class I horses are excluded. This theory is valid for horses between 15-70 Rating units only.



Lets leave Secret Halo out for the moment.



Divine Elegance, who is a bleeder, won at a rating of 36 in race 112 in Pune, as a 3 yr old. Distance to next horse 2.25 L, ie, 2.25/7.75 x 5 kg x2 RTG PTS. This works out to 3 RP. It reduces by 10% in Mumbai.



Had D.E been rated 39, she would have still won. Her winning zone was thus 38-40, as the race commentary said that she won easily. This is proved in her next race where she came 6th at a rating of 52.



She improved slowly and at an RP of 50, came second by 1.0 L as a 4 yr old.

There is a decent improvement in horses from 3 yrs old to 4 yrs old. Her Rating zone was now 47-49. With more improvement, her RP could well be 49-50 rp. Thus she was outside her win zone in this race. Progressing further, based on Race 351, her TIMING UNIT was 73.01[win time of race]+ 1/7.75 + [58-54 kg], her allotted wt vs wt in race 351. This works out to a total package value of 73.01+ 0.13 + 4/5[0.8] units =73.94. On this basis, OATH FUL / DANG.ZON / KRAFTWERK/ STAR status. could be eliminated at first sight. QD is a miler and shedding wt and was out of it..

That left Sec.Halo / Star Look/ Moon Fan / Stun force and Daol.

Daol`s win zone was based on his run against Truffles in race 314, ie,36. Thus his runs in races 201/269 were not true to form. Upcoming horses gain with each race. Smart trainers train their horses in actual races and the horse comes 7th or 8th , giving no indication of improvement. Then these horses are let loose and Bingo- a long odds winner.



Take this race: 1200 mtr, not 1600 as in race 314. First : DAOL



Timing units=[99.40 less 13.00 for 200m less 13.4 for last 200]=73.00 + zero timing as winner, less wt 56-54=2kg=0.4 sec=72.60



In this fashion, Star Look =72.70, Moon Fan =72.72 & Stun Force way behind. Secret Halo is a good sprinter but was outside his win zone by

1-2 units, placing it fourth a neck behind MF.



Hence, Daol should beat Star look by 3/4 L, Sh Hd between SL & MF, N between MF and SH.



This is a simple but effective method of calculating where a horse features. It cannot be very accurate as there so many variables involved. A horse can win a race in poor timing but go on to win in a much better time. Handsome Lad won his race in a poor time but by 7.5L. It was not fancied even for place in his next run. Those who saw its next run were astonished as it almost won. As is known, when ever a horse wins by 5 L , it should be backed again-- Place if not Win.



Having a fair idea of where a horse stands in a race, start again from its previous win. Look back further if you so desire. Trace its links and read through them. This will again give you a fair idea of the same horse, but from another angle. Do read the comments for each of these races to summarise the race.



What this program will do is prevent you from making an ass of yourself and play Win for Marmalade at 60 Kg against a vastly superior horse like Star of Nature. Having applied my algorithm, I predicted that Star of N would beat Star Dusk by 7L and another 1.25 L to Marmalade. I played S-O-N AT 14/10, S-D-Place@ 5/2, F/C, SHP, QUIN, TAN leaving no room for further gain. I then sat back and did the dooooo!



This is how I got LOC at 7/1, Simply Red at 6/1, Snow Star at 6/1, Amaranza @ 6/1, Celestial Fantasy at 4/1 PLACE and so many others. The big win on Simply Red in the first race allowed me liberties that I could never have taken otherwise.



Try this simple method and see how it goes. As you can see, Class is not mentioned at all. Just Rating. If a class VB horse runs 1000 m in 60.3 secs, it has won in Class II timing. That’s all. It is not a Class II horse , just a VB horse that has run in an outstanding fashion.



Next time, I will introduce class and proceed further.



Noel Moitra

[imaufo]

Osho | Thursday, January 29, 2004 11:48:52 IST


This is one of the most penetrating maxims of Heraclitus: The sun is new each day.

http://www.cybernoon.com/images/January2004/2901guest.jpg

Hunger is new each day. Love is new each day. Life is new each day. To say each day is not good. Each movement, each gesture, each moment - everything is new. If everything is so new and fresh, then why do you become dead and bored? - because you don't live out of inner harmony. You live out of the mind; mind is old. Each sun is new, each morning is new, each hunger is new, each satiety - but the mind is old.

Mind is past; mind is the accumulated memory. If you look through the mind it gives a deadness and oldness to everything; everything looks dusty, dirty. Put aside the mind, put aside memories! If you can put aside memories, your wife is new every day. It is only because of memories that you think you have lived with this woman thirty years and you know her well. Who knows? Nobody ever knows. We remain strangers eternally.

How can you know a person? A thing can be known, not a person. A person is freedom. Each moment he changes. How can you encounter the same person again? If you put aside the mind, if you don't look from old eyes, then your wife is new; every gesture is new. Then there is a constant, continuous excitement in your life, continuous aliveness.

This day you will feel hungry - that hunger is new. And this day when you eat, that food is new - because nothing can be old in existence. Existence is always in the present; new, fresh, always moving, a dynamic force, a dialectical movement - river-like it flows.

It is said that people die near about thirty and are buried near about seventy. Even thirty seems too long; this proverb must be from the very ancient days. Now young people come to me - just eighteen, twenty - and they say, "We feel bored." They have become old already. You have taught them; you have conditioned their minds already.

Youth is a quality of being. If you can look at the world without the mind you will remain young forever. Even in your death you will be young, very excited that death is approaching - a great adventure, a culmination, a door open now to infinity.
Nothing is ever the same. Everything goes on changing. Only mind is old and dead. To be capable of looking at life without mind is meditation.

Courtesy Osho Times/www.osho.com