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Horny Harry
30-08-2002, 17:30
High Stakes Player
By Jarrod C. Horak
Racing On The Net dot com
Showing a profit in stakes races is not an easy task. The speed figure experts have a decisive advantage when it comes to handicapping stakes events. The higher quality animal is more consistent and value is not easily attained, so we must look beyond the obvious to fatten our wallets. I am allowing you to journey through my mind as I guide you through my thought process in a trio of stakes races run on Hollywood Gold Cup Day 2002.
Came Home held a significant class, pace, and speed figure advantage in the Grade 2 Swaps Stakes. However, I could not get his ugly Santa Anita Derby tally out of my head, and since the Swaps was run at the same distance, I thought he might be a tad vulnerable at underlaid odds. Most of his rivals were hopelessly outclassed, but two horses figured to offer value. Tracemark just finished a clear 2nd behind Came Home in the Grade 3 Affirmed Handicap, and he figured to close the gap with added real estate. Like A Hero was on the improve before unwisely trying the big boys in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes at 1-1/2 miles. I could not forgive Beau Greely for his recent mismanagement of this lightly raced but talented animal, so I opted for Tracemark. Came Home was never threatened while cantering home, and Like A Hero finished a clear 2nd. Tracemark never got untracked.
Some connections use other races to set up their respective charges for a huge effort. For example, in the 2002 Hollywood Gold Cup, Sky Jack held a pace/speed figure advantage over two his main rivals, Momentum and Milwaukee Brew. The latter figured to be seriously compromised by the lack of early pace, and Robert Frankel in his corner solidified his status as an underlay. That still left Sky Jack as the most likely winner, but if he failed to shake loose on an uncontested lead, the 10f distance could prove his undoing. With that in mind, Momentum became the most intriguing play at a hint of a price. Craig Dollase put two beautiful local preps under his belt and had him primed for a top effort in his 3rd race off the shelf. It also pays to watch race replays. Milwaukee Brew and Momentum each exited the Grade 2 Californian, with the former besting his rival by a length. However, if you saw the race, you would have noticed that Milwaukee Brew sat a ground saving trip while Momentum raced wide throughout from the outside post. In the end, Sky Jack nostrilized Momentum in a thrilling Gold Cup renewal, with Milwaukee Brew clunking up to finish a non-threatening 3rd.
The final graded stakes event contested on July 14th was the Grade 2 A Gleam Handicap at 7f for the distaff set. The extended sprint distance was the key to this race, as heavily favored Kalookan Queen appeared most effective up to 6.5f. She was an obvious contender and figured to sit a beautiful outside stalk and pounce trip, but others figured to offer more value on the win end. Irguns Angel was the most intriguing entrant. The improving miss had won both of her 2002 starts to date, and her figures were vastly superior to her 2001 numbers. Since her last victory occurred in a minor Northern California stakes race, the betting public figured to let her go at an attractive number. Queen Of Wilshire was a viable alternative to the favorite as well, but there were a few nagging problems. Most of her recent activity was on the sod, and, although very capable on the main, she did most of her best running while attending the pace. There were other speed types to compromise her chances, and her early speed could have been dulled in those turf routes. Song Of Summer had a ton of extended sprint and course experience, but she did not have the will to win. Irguns Angel was a very attractive win bet at 5-1, and Song Of Summer was the key to my superfecta. As the gates opened, Secret Liaison sped to the front and grudgingly gave way to perfect-tripper Irguns Angel. Kalookan Queen had every chance from a tracking position, but she flattened out to finish 3rd. Song Of Summer never fired.
I worked hard to uncover these hidden gems, and although my results were mixed, I wagered with conviction and selected value-oriented contenders.The final outcome will be wrong more often than not, but if you consistently make correct decisions, a profit will be made in the long run.
The British Are Coming...
By Jarrod C. Horak
Racing On The Net dot com
Horses ship to this country for a variety of reasons, such as private purchases by wealthy and crafty connections. Lasix is not permitted in Europe, so chronic bleeders show up in the US often, while horses sporting main track pedigrees with suspect turf form attempt to resurrect their careers. Our minds must be on the muscle constantly while using a wide variety of methodologies in hopes of deciphering the complexities of European form.
One of the most important aspects of an overseas invader is how he will fit with the competition he is about to face. If you are using the Daily Racing Form, a good class gauge is the Timeform Ratings, while Bloodstock Research publishes trustworthy foreign class ratings in their past performances as well. A reliable set of foreign class ratings will enable you to weed out the contenders from the pretenders.
Certain European courses are better at preparing horses for the rigors of American racing. In Great Britain, Chester is the closest thing Europe has to a United States turf course. It is flat with a left-hand turn, and with the stretch run a little over a furlong in length, positional speed is the key to success. Epsom is another key track with undulations, slopes, and sharp left-hand turns. If a horse is up to that mental and physical challenge, he should be prepared for any obstacle. Wolverhampton is a flat all-weather surface with a left-hand turn that is as close to American dirt racing as any European horse will ever come across on that continent. Lingfield Park also has an all-weather surface.
An understanding of European horses in training and key races is vital to wagering success as well. On July 6th, 2002, Dublino shipped in from across the pond following a fine place finish behind Sophisticat, and that one returned to take Royal Ascot's Group 1 Coronation Stakes impressively. Based on her running lines and foreign class ratings, she figured a tight fit in Hollywood Park's American Oaks, and she won the aforementioned Southern California grass race...only to be disqualified for interference!
Numerous overseas shippers invade the United States each year. International racing is here to stay, and if we are going to grow along with it, we must be prepared to learn the intricacies of the complex and fluctuating handicapping puzzle.
MY TAKE ON BREEDERS CUP FUTURE BOOK
By Marc Platt
Racing On The Net dot com
There are many different gambles in life that are made with cold calculation and work. There are others that we just guess and hope that it works out for the best.
I know that it looks appetizing to get 25-to-1 on Congaree to win the Breeders Cup Classic, but many things can and will happen between July and November that could make that $20-$100 wager go up in smoke. How would you like to bet $100 to win on Congaree in the Classic only to find that Bob Baffert ends up putting him in the BC Sprint. That makes your $100 ticket wallpaper.
The only horse I would consider (at this point) is Officer in the Sprint. I'm no veterinarian I just play one on the radio, but there has been two serious gaps in the training of this horse. When he runs around one turn he is brilliant, but he has spent a lot of time on the sidelines and the 10-to-1 price he went off in Pool #1 doesn't seem worth it to me. For a horse that may or may not make the dance I would want 20-to-1 at this point.
My point is VALUE. What value are you willing to accept 3 1/2-months out from the Breeders Cup at Arlington, a facility most horses WON'T have ever run a race at before that day?
Forget the turf events. There are too many unknown European runners who we have NO WAY of knowing whether they are being pointed to these races or not. I didn't even know the name Banks Hill until two weeks before the BC Fillies and Mares Turf race, yet I picked her and she won.
It is a lot of fun to talk about the Breeders Cup right now and watch these stakes races throughout the summer with a little extra interest and possible financial incentive, but to actually put money down on horses who could be injured in a matter of seconds during a training run. Not for me.
I'd rather sink that money into a play right now and try to take care of my immediate horse racing needs.
DESORMEAUX'S SOMEWHAT UN-EXCELLENT ADVENTURE
Pretty rough afternoon on Saturday July 6 for my buddy Kent D. Although he won three races, he got dumped after Dance Dreamer won the 4th race. Kent said he got the wind knocked out of him and then was amazed when the horse (who was running loose) turned around and headed straight for him. Dance Dreamer almost went Tabasco Cat on poor old Kent.
He then had his number taken down in the inaugural American Oaks when Dublino bumped Megahertz in the stretch.
Desormeaux sent me an email this week about the incident:
"The people involved with Dublino are FIRST CLASS. (Trainer & Owners) They have called me twice to assure me that we will get them next time. I just feel so stupid.
KJD"
The call was correct, but Kent's horse may have been more affected by the graze. This is a serious filly. Kent could be loaded at Arlington on Breeders Cup Day with Astra (or Dublino) and Milwaukee Brew.
Are Modern Training Approaches Hurting The End Result In The Belmont Classic?
By Warren Eves
Why did the three-year-old class fall short of expectations in this year’s Belmont?
It’s a question that can’t be answered with simplicity. It probably has something to do with the fact that we offer so few races beyond the distance of 1-1/4 miles. The other factor is the get rich quick mentality of owners and buyers of this century.
The illegal use of drugs, such as the steroids we’ve written about for over a century, no doubt has left an indelible mark. There’s no debating that issue.
We asked some of the people we respect what their reads were on this subject.
Publicist Mike Tanner holds some views which make a lot of sense. “My take on it is kind of a neo-evolutionary one,” Tanner begins, “that commercial breeders aim to produce rapid, early-developing precocious types(see Officer an example) at the expense of breeding for classic distance durability.
“Simple fact of the matter is that a sales-prepped two-year-old that can cut a quarter mile in a shade of over 10 second will bring a lot more than a rangier type who projects to possibly be a runner.
“The shift towards this focus began in the mid 1970s and continued even when the tax laws changed and the yearling market’s bubble burst in 1966. With fewer old guard, homebred-based operations (like Phipps, Darby Dan, etc., around) the emphasis shifted towards a win-early approach.”
Crack lady handicapper Debra Giglio has the following views on the subject. “In my mind, the reason is the result of economics in the industry that precludes the development of three-year-olds with a foundation,” says Debra.
“The two-year-old races are almost completely ruled by precocious speed horses, and recent sales have shown that people are willing to spend more money for early speed pedigrees to get returns on their investments. Many of these horses never make it through their three-year-old season.”
“There has to be some sort of effect from the medication-particularly in the breeding end. Think of it this way. For years Ogden Phipps would not allow any of his horses to race with lasix. After he changed his mind and allowed race-day medication, he sent the Lasix-raced horses (i.e., the bleeders) to Japan for breeding, not to his farm in Kentucky. Well, guess who never raced with Lasix? Our Emblem! Maybe it’s not a coincidence that his progeny is doing so well.
“Also, since I followed Gulch from his foaling I knew he (like his mother Jameela) never had an infirmity or need for any medication while racing. He spent his two-year-old season with Leroy Jolley, but D. Wayne Lukas took over when he was three and raced him into his fourth year. He retired sound, and just look at what he has produced.
“The final part of the equation involves the lack of foundation when you have a horse like Point Given who won all his preps in four and five horse fields. Then Point Given goes into the Derby with 20 horses and is overwhelmed. Obviously, conditioning is more than just training and even racing in such small fields..”
Handicapper Barry Meadows says: “I don’t know, maybe it just cyclical. Horses continue to be bred for speed, speed, speed and they are trained hard in the United States. Purses continue to be high for two and three-year-olds(unlike Europe) so that buyers and breeders can make a quicker recovery from their investment. So horses are asked questions early. Many of them can’t stand up to this and can’t make through the long grind. The number of starts per horse continues to decline and drug use continues to increase.”
Ira Kaplan of the Daily Racing Form is not quite so quick to dispense the current bunch of sophomores.
“I think it’s too early to make the blanket statement that the three-year-olds have fallen short of expectations,” says Kaplan. “After all one of them was good enough to win the Derby and Preakness. I don’t think you can begin to know how good they are until at least the fall when they face older horses. Or, really, until next year when they are all grown up.
“Who’s to say Sarava doesn’t win the Jockey Gold Cup? Or Sunday Break the Woodward. Or War Emblem the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Let this crop of three-year-olds run its course and then we can look back and rate it.”
The other factor which has not been mentioned by our panel has to do with the rise up through the ranks. How many modern day trainers have learned the ropes from the likes of a Charlie Whittingham over a long period of time? It’s a hurry up world we live in and maybe a goodly share of today’s trainers simply don’t know how to prepare a colt for such a test as the Belmont.
This gives us some varied views on why the thoroughbred of today appears to have great difficulty dealing with marathon races.
Maybe my perspective is a residue from all those years of investigative reporting on the illegal use of drugs by trainers. I’m among those who tend to believe the get of many finely bred thoroughbreds have been damaged.
One part of the answer I am sure of. The majority of modern day trainers did not serve a lengthy apprenticeship. Those who learned the thorough slow process under the likes of Charlie Whittingham gained something special. Patience ruled. Long gallops. Plenty of time between big races. The details of such a shedrow are complex.
While publishing the Quarter Horse Report at Los Alamitos Race Course years ago I also learned a valuable lesson. At that famed racing surface we learned to value the “exertion” factor. Physical exertion plays a key role in each horse’s cycle. If a horse runs all out and posts a lifetime best, chances are very good he won’t run back to that effort.
Colts who are asked to tackle the Triple Crown are defying the odds. If a trainer has never had the experience before this can be likened to mission impossible.
There Are No Easy Answers
by Jarrod C. Horak
Racing On The Net dot com
We are often asked on our radio show about the importance of horse, jockey, trainer, and weight in the handicapping process. Each race is a new puzzle and there are no easy answers, but I am going to try to shed some new light on the aforementioned angles.
Anyone who states that "It is the horse, stupid", I say dream on. While the horse is doing the actual running, he cannot win the race by himself. He needs the proper conditioning, training, and a capable rider to guide him through the terrain. A talented horse in the hands of a competent jockey/trainer team is a very dangerous commodity. Put that same animal under the care of inferior connections, and he will most likely be a major underachiever...and a money-burner!
The significance of a jockey in a given situation is relative to his strength or weakness with a certain trainer, along with how his riding prowess compliments the style of the horse. If a rider proficient with late runners shows up on a one-dimensional speedball, they will probably not make a productive team. However, put that same rider on a sustained runner in a race filled with speed types, and you have the makings of a wagering opportunity (unless you are one of those jockey fanatics). One guy hates Jerry Bailey and says Eddie D is horrible with favorites, while another loves Pat Day. I say to them that you should never let passion cloud your judgment. If you do, you are heading for certain handicapping suicide.
The trainer is by far the most important factor in the handicapping process. He is the coach, and everything he does must be dissected, while everything he says must be taken with a grain of salt. When handicapping a race, I am analyzing the trainer. If a competent trainer switches to one of his money riders, and shows more than one profitable angle, such as route to sprint, turf to dirt, etc, then a golden wagering opportunity may present itself. Intent does not guarantee victory, but it helps lead you down the path of success. Trainer intent is the biggest angle in horse racing!
Does weight actually have any effect on a 1,000 pound animal? If I were a horse, maybe I could answer that question, but since I am not, the question remains an enigma. Therefore, weight is totally irrelevant as far as I am concerned!
It is just as important to know who cannot win as it is to select winners. Incompetent connections saddling a false favorite can lead to inflated prices on the true contenders. Our job as handicappers is to isolate the contenders from the pretenders, while allowing value to lead us to the cashiers window.
STICK TO THE CLAIMERS AND STAPLES OF RACING!
By Marc Platt
Racing On The Net dot com
Okay already. Enough. It's time to get back to what we do best...Win or lose money on cheap claimers and maidens we know nothing about. The hoopla is over with and we can gear up for the Breeders Cup and races that won't matter until late fall.
It's the every day nuts and bolts races that make our daily lives that much richer, not Triple Crown races. We spend so much time devising a betting strategy for the big race, we leave out the possibility of a Sarava ($154.00). I used this runner in all my exotics, but did I have one penny on him to win, place or show? No way. I made a lot of money off him in the Sir Barton Stakes at Pimlico on Preakness day, but like most of you thought he was overmatched in the Belmont. Little did I realize how bad this year's crop of 3-year-olds really is.
I make my money picking winners in allowance, maiden races and claimers not Grade One races. Maybe next year I will limit myself to spending $10.00 on each race and just using them in the Pick Threes and Pick Four. I never seem to learn. I get so caught up in the hype and hysteria and my common sense goes right out the window.
I suggest that we stick to what we know best and not chase a bad bet just because everyone else has to. The money we make in a cheap claimer spends the same as the cash we may once in awhile score in a major stakes race. Treat it like every other race you play and you won't be wiped out as often.
We all have a collection of bad race track shirts, mugs and bobble heads (I love the bobble heads). These are the spoils of many a bad day at the track and a few good ones sprinkled in.
It is a good idea to take an emotional inventory every so often at the great game of horse racing and what we as players are doing. Ask yourself that age-old question. Are you growing as a bettor? Have you made adjustments and changes in your betting patterns that will enable you to keep going?
Sometimes it only takes one bad day at the track to remind me how vulnerable we all are when it comes to winning and losing at the track.
Just a thought.
The Day J.O. Tobin Slewed The Slew
By Warren H. Eves
Famed Seattle Slew passed on May 7, 2002.
Here are some recollections of the thoroughbred some sports fans call the greatest athlete of all time.
It was the day before J.O. Tobin would get his final tune-up for his meeting with Seattle Slew.
A disappointing crowd of 31,156 turned out at Hollywood Park. My beat back in those days was the Southern California horse racing circuit for the Pasadena Star News.
Seattle Slew waited in the wings.
J.O. Tobin had been rushed into the Preakness by owner George Pope turned in a smashing effort on this day. Under a feathery 107-pound impost the three-year-old son of Never Bend established a new track standard for 1-1/8 miles over the infield turf course at Hollywood Park.
Bill Shoemaker was aboard. J.O. Tobin merely toyed with five outclassed foes.
“Let me tell you,” Shoemaker said, “that horse( Bill was talking about Seattle Slew) is gonna have to do some running to beat my horse. We were only beaten about five lengths by him in the Preakness, and, believe me, my horse had a lot more trouble than that in the race.”
J.O. Tobin met older horses in his tune-up race. He eclipsed a six-year-old record of 1:47 1/5. He bettered the record set by Ack Ack in July of 1971.
Seattle Slew arrived at Los Angeles Airport by plane along with Hunza Dancer. The bargain $17,500 purchase was whisked off to Hollywood Park. Veterinarian Jim Hill accompanied the ‘Slew. Hill sedated Seattle Slew for the six-hour flight.
Not since the mid fifties, when famed Swaps was the talk of the racing world, had so much excitement been generated. Phones were ringing off the hook at Hollywood Park. Ticket scalpers were using every ploy to acquire tickets.
The ‘Slew’s every move was being covered by the media. Seattle Slew would be going for his 10th consecutive triumph in the 1977 Swaps Stakes. The pot was $300,000. Not since Citation had a Triple Crown winner gone on display in California.
“In the 31 years I’ve been around this is the greatest response I’ve ever seen,” said Hollypark’s operations manager Al Ramsey. “We’ve gotten letters from Texas, New York and New Jersey. You name it. I have a friend of mine up in Las Vegas I haven’t heard from in five years. And, I get this phone call from him. He’s congratulating me, on my new promotion. And, at the end of the conversation, he’s asking me how it looks for Swaps Day.
“Then he asks. By the way. Could I get him 20 tickets for his clients on Swaps Day? I said, no way! I said that he could come down and take his best shot with the rest of the people on Swaps Day. I told him that 3,000 reserved seats would go on sale at 10 a.m. as soon as the gates open.”
There was a group of people who called Hollypark’s ticket department from San Clemente. That’s a beach community midway between Los Angeles and San Diego. They were coming to the Inglewood oval at 5 a.m. on race day. They planned to wait at the gates until they were opened.
Brokers were trying to buy blocks of 50 to 100 tickets. All of these people were told the same thing, get in line with everyone else. Even a religious organization, which claimed they had been praying for Seattle Slew, tried to acquire tickets.
Extra help was hired by Hollypark. On the day of the big racecars were to be parked in the stable area, on the Getty oil field north of the track near Gate 7, and on the perimeter roads. Additional parking would be available on the polo field.
Seattle Slew was bedded down in barn 60. He had more security than Cuba’s Fidel Castro. They roped the Slew’s area off. The colt, reportedly insured at a cost of $3,000 weekly, seemed undaunted by all the hoopla.
The Thursday prior to the big race Seattle Slew came out to gallop one and a half times around the oval with Mike Kennedy. All eyes were on the champion.
I remember this day like yesterday. Trainers lined up their ponies at the gap in order to watch. The guiney stand was packed by the curious. Seattle Slew looked the part. He looked strong and rugged. He handled the track well. Trainer Billy Turner was pleased.
Seattle Slew bumper stickers and T-shirts were being sold. Hollywood Park obtained permission to use a special S-Slew code on its pari-mutuel tickets for the Swaps Day Stakes. They were projecting a minus pool in the betting. Management was too concerned about it. Thousands of tickets backing Seattle Slew would never be cashed anyway.
The Slew had slain 87 foes in nine starts. After winning the Belmont, it was revealed a total of $125,000 had been returned to the state of New York. That figure probably represented uncashed tickets fans had retained as souvenirs.
At the draw for post positions Seattle Slew drew the two slot. Post four went to J.O. Tobin. A surprise entry of Mr. Red Wing upped the field to seven. The gross value of the 1-1/4 mile event would be $316,400.
Seattle Slew’s success story began Sept., 20, 1976. He broke his maiden by five lengths at Belmont Park. It was the beginning of something big in horse racing.
He had three lengths to spare in an allowance race victory at the distance of seven furlongs in October. The Slew’s next test was the Champagne at the distance of a mile. He led every step in 1:34 2/5. The winning margin was 10 open lengths.
“After the Champagne,” recalls part owner Mickey Taylor, “we knew we had something special.”
Trainer Turner was calling the shots. The Slew, without question, was something extra-ordinary. It was on to Hialeah for an allowance race. He scored by nine and smashed the track record for seven with a clocking of 1:20 3/5.
The Flamingo was next. The result was the same. Seattle Slew scored by four over Giboulee.
Next came the Wood Memorial. It was a wire-to-wire win for the Slew at the Big A.
They were ready for the Triple Crown.
“He educated this horse like no human being,” said horseracing expert Frank Tours who was working for the New York Racing Association. “You should have been there the day of the cloudburst and they wound up walking him. Those hard boots were going out of their minds. No way, they said, would he win the Derby with tactics like that. But he did.”
And win the Derby he did. Breaking badly, the nation watched Seattle Slew plough his way through the field going for the first turn. He went on to win. The roses were in the hands of the Slew crew.
Historic wins in the Preakness at Pimlico and the Belmont completed the grand slam. The Triple Crown was his.
You would think credentials like that would scare off all comers. Not so! There were those who gave J.O. Tobin a good chance of halting Slew’s win string in the Swaps at Hollywood Park.
Jockey Jean Cruget should have known it was not going to be his day. Cruget got into an altercation with a gateman trying to enter Hollypark on the day of the big race.
J.O. Tobin scored a smashing eight-length triumph in the Swaps. He got an assist from jockey Darrel McHargue aboard Text. J.O. Tobin missed the track and world record for 1-1/4 by only two-fifths of a second.
The winner took the track away from Seattle Slew from the start. J.O. Tobin led every step under Shoemaker. Longshot Affiliate finished second. Text ran third.
The Slew had been slain. It was sad. He finished 16 lengths back of the winner in fourth.
A crowd of 68,115 jammed into Hollywood Park. They came to cheer for Seattle Slew and backed him to the hilt. They bet a record $659,742 on the colt who was going for his tenth straight.
Around the clubhouse turn, McHargue Text positioned on the outside flank of Seattle Slew on turn one. Cruget was caught in a switch aboard Seattle Slew. His famed mount nearly clipped heels. J.O. Tobin was being geared down a bit while racing on the lead. The Slew had no place to go. Cruget had to check his horse.
J.O. Tobin, the English champion as a two-year-old, opened up a clear lead down the backstraight. The Slew continued racing inside Text. He inched into second as they approached the half-mile pole. That’s when you knew, the undefeated string of the Slew was in serious jeopardy.
Shoemaker was engineering another one of his fantastic front-running rides. The Shoe asked J.O. Tobin to open up a bit off the turn. There was a deafening roar from the large crowd. Fans jammed closer to railing to get a better view.
The Slew was a beaten horse with three-sixteenths of a mile to go.
When Seattle Slew returned to the unsaddling area, the fans let him know they had come to see him run. It sent chills up my spine.
“I knew we were beat into the first turn,” said Cruget. “He just wasn’t himself—at least in the race. He was fine warming up. And the track was fine. He didn’t have any problems handling the track. He just didn’t fire.”
Cruget made no reference to his altercation with the gateman.
“I didn’t expect to be on the lead,” said Shoemaker. “But when he broke so well I just went on with him. When the gate opened he broke like a bullet. Today he got it all together. I think this is a good horse. I thin, if he had run like this in the Preakness, he would have beaten Seattle Slew.”
During the press conference, Shoemaker was asked if he felt J.O. Tobin was a better horse than Seattle Slew? “I don’t think he would have beaten him today or in any race he has ever run,” said Shoe. “I don’t know how much better he is, but I think he’s a better horse.”
It marked Shoe’s 7,244th lifetime win. It gave him is 703rd conquest in a stakes race.
Shoemaker felt J.O. Tobin’s Preakness race was much better than many had thought. Why, owner Pope was asked, had they dodged Seattle Slew in the Belmont if they felt J.O. Tobin’s Preakness effort was so good? Pop didn’t have a good answer.
The facts were trainer Johnny Adams had been pushed into hurrying J.O. Tobin to make the Preakness. It was well known that Pope ran the show. J.O. Tobin simply had so much talent he was able to bounce back in the Swaps. He overcame it all.
They ran the last race at Hollywood Park on that famed day around 7 p.m. The third largest crowd in history had bet an all time record of $7,232,800. That sounds like peanuts compared to the big numbers that have been racked up since the inception of simulcasting. The last of the cars were leaving the stable area where the overflow had been jammed at about 8:35 p.m.
Mickey Taylor, co-owned of Seattle Slew, said it all: “He just didn’t fire. He got beat by a very good horse. I’m Sorry we disappointed the wonderful people in California.”
All was not lost for the Slew crew. Reportedly the owners were paid a performance bonus of $100,000 the minute Seattle Slew came out of the gate. Our sources claim it was a deal similar to the one made with Rex Ellsworth when he took Swaps to Arlington Park to match with Nashua.
Jockey Cruget didn’t go ho0me empty-handed. Remember the horse that flew west with Slew? Hunza Dancer and Cruget won the $113,900 American Handicap the following Monday.
Having had the night to think about Seattle Slew’s race, Cruget commented to us: “Usually when I came out of the gate I have had to take hold of him. But after the first turn, he didn’t go anywhere. I think, he might need to be sent to the farm to freshen up a bit
WATCHING POOLS AND PROBABLES
By Marc Platt
Racing On The Net dot com
There are players who stand in front of monitors and watch the exacta, double and pick three probable payouts and make marks on clipboards all day long. They chart the betting action on all the horses and note which horses may be taking action.
A good example may be a horse running in the next race who may be a long shot, but is taking action in the rolling daily double from horses in the race that is about to run.
Let's take a look at a scenario where you may be able to cash a ticket on a long shot you like.
Making Your Pick Count
You've done your handicapping prior to the races and you know you like a horse in the 5th race No. 5, Until Dawn. This horse is 8-to-1 on the morning line, but you feel he should be a favorite and you are ready to unload on the horse.
You are standing at the monitors before the 4th race waiting for the daily double probable payouts from all the horses in the 4th race to your No. 5 in the 5th, Until Dawn and you notice that the probable payoffs are low with your long shot. What that means is Until Dawn is taking a lot of early action and will likely be a shorter price than his morning line.
How can we still cash a ticket on the horse if he wins and get the value of his morning line if we know he will get hammered?
Looking At the Double Probable Payouts
That isn't always an easy question to answer, but I would carefully monitor the daily double action right up until post time of the 4th race and if the price goes up, I would heavily consider playing that double with the contenders of the 4th race to your horse and starting a pick three with those same horses in the 4th race, "singling" (using just one horse) your horse in the middle leg and using the contenders in the 6th race.
This is the best way to ensure you are getting some value from that 8-to-1 morning line price. More people are likely to ignore a long shot in the middle and late legs of a pick three and you will still be able to capitalize on that horse if he gets bet down. If you catch the first leg of your daily double play, then you don't need to make a win bet on that horse. If the horse happens to get bet down to a favorite, then you already have a bet on the horse in the double that is close to what his morning line value was.
When a horse is taking action in the double
4th Race 5th race Double Probable w/ 5 (8-to1)
1 5 $35
2 3 $21
3 20 $156
4 9/2 $33
5 5/2 $42
6 12 $105
7 7/2 $45
4th Race 5th race Double Probable w/ 6 (2-to1)
1 5 $31
2 3 $17
3 20 $95
4 9/2 $40
5 5/2 $21
6 12 $98
7 7/2 $25
Looking at Exacta Probable Payouts
Exacta probable payouts can give bettors a good indication of which runners are "live" and which runners are "dead on the board." The betting public doesn't know anymore than anyone else as far as which horses will actually run well, but you as a gambler can take advantage of situations that seem logical to you.
It is very important to NOT let the "wise guys" at the track dictate what you do as a bettor. Your opinion is the one that counts most and it is important to watch what is going on and try to take advantage of a betting opportunity that YOU see happening in front of you. Use your logic to make the wager and don't be swayed by a horse taking a lot of action that you feel doesn't warrant the attention. Sometimes those horses win, but you will make out better in the long run with your own convictions.
The most important factor in watching pools and probable payouts is betting opportunities and not what the public is doing.
Remember racing is a pari-mutuel experience; you against the other guy. The only way you will come out on top is to stick by your guns and wager accordingly.
WHAT IF IT RAINS?
They do run in the rain.
In fact, some horses prefer the goo. They are bred to run on off-tracks. Your job as a horse player is to figure out which horses will perform well over a sloppy track and which ones won’t take to it too well. Many rainy days you will see people walking around muttering to themselves. It is true you need to be a real die-hard to be out there in a driving rain.
THE FIRST DAY
I am now going to give you one of my trade secrets when it comes to handicapping horse races for an off track. When you go on the first day it rains, key on horses with a lot of speed. Horses who run on the front end don’t get mud kicked up in their eyes. You will often see jockeys on speed horses come back to the unsaddling area with clean silks. The first day it rains the track is usually sealed by the track superintendent, which means that the surface was packed down and water won’t usually seep into the track. The track will usually play fast on that first day and you can make a few bucks.
THE SECOND DAY
I don’t make a killing on that first day usually; it is the next day when the track is muddy. That is the day when the longshots start popping up with big races. You will see horses who have been running poor races recently on fast racing surfaces move way up on the off track.
I live for the day after it first rains. You need to be an astute observer of the weather conditions in your local area to take advantage. In the Daily Racing Form there is each horse’s “wet track” record. That can be a very valuable aide in helping you cash a ticket. You need to look back in the past performances to that horse’s running line on a wet or sloppy racing surface. The horse racing gems are the ones who are in current bad form, but have run well in the goo.
I have hit many pick threes using 20-to-1 long shots on the day after it rains. I like to call it the second day.
You can also pick up a book called “Mudders And Turfers” which lists all the turf sires and their offspring’s percentage. This can be a valuable asset to your handicapping for rainy and post rainy days when the surface of the racetrack is drying out. That is the time to capitalize on this most lucrative of horse racing situations.
It's "Garbage Time" For Racing Fans
By Marc Platt
Racing On The Net dot com
Believe it or not, this is my favorite time of year as a horse racing fan. Well really as a fan of making money at the track. I have a strategy for collecting on races run at the end of the year.
All the big races are now over and barns are looking to re-stock, re-energize and just take it easy before they have to gear up for the big meets right after Christmas. Races are hard to fill, especially in Southern California. We will see a lot of five, six and seven-horse fields with horses dropping in class. Some runners will take huge plunges in claiming price. The trainers are putting the "For Sale" signs up on these horses and dumping the dead weight.
You may ask how this impacts the bettors?
It does!
As a handicapper, I always look for runners who look healthy. Smaller barns usually thrive in these situations when they have a runner who fits perfectly in the scheme of a race. These horses usually go off at mid-price, usually around 4-to-1 or 5-to-1.
What I'm saying is to stay away from the short-priced dropper and take a chance with the mid-priced horse who has run well at or about the same racing level for the past several races in his past performance line. You can just look at his last three speed figures to gauge his competitiveness in this situation. You will know the opportunity when you see it. There will be several short-field races with horses taking big drops in claiming price coming up every day.
Sometimes you will get beat, but as a rule it's a good time to pick up some extra Christmas shopping money on a healthy horse who looks outclassed, but may NOT have as many physical problems hampering his progress. I know we aren't veterinarians, but there are a few signs of unfitness to watch out for.
In the PP's you should carefully examine every horse's training pattern. If you see a horse entered in a race with no works in months, you should be suspicious. If that horse raced against much better competition two months ago and hasn't worked in two weeks, you may want to avoid betting the horse when he is entered on the drop. Sometimes these horses win, but they are a terrible wager. Horses with large gaps between races, but have a big win on their ledger early in his career are the types to stay away from.
This is the time of year trainers give away their infirmed animals. There are always barns that will grab these animals and rehabilitate them for racing next year. Just because a horse is banged up now, doesn't mean he won't come back in four months with different connections handling his training and win. It is the "now" we care about. Do you want to bet on a horse that shouldn't even be out there running? I don't.
I do want to bet on a horse where the conditions set up nicely for that horse to win, or run well enough to help me in an exacta or trifecta situation.
Now is the time to look for opportunities, avoid the garbage and make a little extra cash at holiday time.
WILL IN-HOME WAGERING MAKE A DIFFERENCE?
By Marc Platt
Racing On The Net dot com
It's coming...It won't be long now...Don't change that dial.
The reality of the situation is that the race tracks won't see any significant change come January when the California horse players will be able to bet horses from the comfort of their homes (legally) through phone accounts and on the Internet. It may take a few years for the handle to show the effects.
What we are likely to see is more hard core players making larger bets through services like Youbet.com and Callabet and many other services popping up to service the demand that will exist.
The key to making in-home wagering work will be to attract sports gamblers to the sport of horse racing. Those hard core guys who will bet hundreds of dollars on football and basketball games are the target of the race tracks. Once a gambler learns he can get 10-to-1 on a horse and he/she learns a few of the basics, they will flock to horse racing. That is what the management teams at the tracks are hoping.
The reality of the situation is horse racing is still an under-promoted game and the entities that produce the product still don't do enough to educate people. Newcomers are still overwhelmed by the amount of information they are afraid to absorb when trying to make an uneducated guess. In football you only need to pick the winning team and cover a spread. In racing you may have 10 other horses to beat. How does a new player learn to have the confidence when there are so many factors to calculate?
These are the dilemmas facing newcomers to the Sport Of Kings.
Right now Magna and CDSN (Churchill Downs) have a big opportunity if they take advantage. They can develop programs and literature to simplify the learning process. They can have seminars on track for newcomers, they can develop online services to help new players to the game.
This is a game that must be learned and the companies that thrive are the ones who can teach. At Hollywood Park they have paddock previews with jockeys and trainers and other handicappers to go over weekend cards. At Santa Anita handicappers go over the weekend cards and have been doing so for years.
These are good for weekend players, but don't really go in depth with the basic fundamentals of picking winners.
The information is out there if you are eager to learn the game. If you want to get those players who may want to spend their money in other areas, you will have to go that extra yard to teach them the basics of the game.
It will be interesting to see what Magna does concerning a television feed. Will they put their own racing network together, or will they go with TVG (Television Games Network).
TVG does a pretty good job dumbing the sport down and explaining the basics to its audience. That is the approach that will have to be taken as more and more states get involved with in-home wagering. Simplifying a complicated sport isn't as simple as it sounds.
It may take a few years to really notice the impact of in-home wagering, but the companies who figure to profit the most should take a long-term look into getting that new player they so badly desire.
Sensory Overload: What I did On My Summer Vacation
By Marc Platt
Racing On The Net dot com
If you are a fan of horse racing, you might think that watching television feeds from almost every racetrack across the country and getting paid to do so would be heaven.
Not me.
I spent the summer of 2001 working at Youbet.com in the Racing Operations Center (ROC). I was an operator who basically monitored up to six racetracks at a time for changes and payouts for the Youbet customers. The good part of the job was getting to watch Del Mar and Saratoga, which I would go bet early bird and catch the races later in the day. In fact, the guys call me "Mr. Del Mar." The bad part was having to watch racing from the bush tracks and harness tracks across America. It was an education, but definitely gave me more of an appreciation for the major circuits.
I will do my best to describe the action inside the ROC on any given racing day. We run up to 20 tracks at a time with television sets up at half volume. Try to imagine racetrack feeds coming from 20 television sets at the same time.
The guys in the ROC are all great, but rapidly approaching burnout. I was there four months and went home each night with a scattered brain. The guys all work hard and take pride in their efforts, but have to be de-sensitized to the Sport Of Kings. We watch more races in a day than some people do in a lifetime. There are bright spots, but plenty of headaches. My fellow operators would bark out something and half the time the response was a loud "WHAT." My comrades and I may need some down time to recover our hearing. We click a lot of buttons on our computers with track "condition changes" and "rider/driver" changes. We even do medication changes and the all-important "nasal strip" changes, just kidding on that one. The Internet horse player who comes to Youbet.com is well-equipped to play the races. The product is excellent.
I am not enamored by harness racing. There are many fans who clamor each racing day to catch the action at Balmorral, Pocono Downs, Mohawk, Ocean, Maywood & Elmira. I personally don't get it, but respect those who do and can find ways to profit. There are plenty of Youbet.com customers who follow that sport rabidly, but I look at harness as something in the neighborhood of rodeo.
The thing I really got to love about the job were the personalities involved in the Inter-track shows, especially Great Lake Downs. GLD is a very small racetrack located in Muskegon, Michigan. Their Inter-track show is hosted by track announcer Matt Hook and Media Relations Director Jamie Goddard. She is a "hottie." All the guys in the ROC love Jamie, and she knows something about racing. She and Matt joke around and give out their selections half-an-hour before the races. We usually mark down her selections. The guys all the love the blonde bombshell, who may not be a day over 25.
I'd love to get Jamie to come work for a Southern California racetrack, if only for selfish, personal reasons. Just kidding. Great Lakes Downs is so small that a $100 win wager will knock the odds down from 10-to-1 to 8-to-5, but Jamie and Matt are amusing enough to keep my interest. Jamie even does the paddock preview once in awhile. It certainly made for a more enjoyable summer.
You really want sex appeal, check out the Beulah Twins (Ohio). Rumor has it these girls were featured in Playboy Magazine with a full spread. They do a decent job giving out winners at Beulah, but more people are interested in their other attributes. The people who do the Mountaineer Inter-track show, Mark and Nancy are very informative and give out lots of winners for that often-played West Virginia track. They do an excellent job and seem to love their job. I have to say that some of the harness Inter-track shows make me want to jump out the window. Fortunately, Youbet.com is a one-story outfit.
Working at the ROC was a great experience, but as they say too much ice cream makes you lose your taste and the same can be said of horse racing. I will try to keep my senses intact and keep my horse racing intake to a few tracks at a time from now on.
I would like to wish Ruben, Dante, Jack, Jerry, Ron, Lucky, Chris and Cliff (Bojangles) the very best

Horny Harry
06-09-2002, 04:50
High-diving into the Future Pool
Jason Levin | Special to NTRA.com
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Nearly $10,000 was bet on Street Cry in last weekend's future pool, more than any other horse. 12 hours after the pools closed, it was announced the Godolphin colt, the race favorite in the pools at 6-1, had been retired. That, my friends, is the essence of future betting. It is the ultimate racing gamble, trying to predict the future in a sport where the athletes are inherently fragile and inconsistent creatures.
The people getting 6-1 were figuring that was good value because he was the top older horse of a weak crop and needed only to beat the three year-olds to win the $4 million Classic. They also knew that there were 8 weeks to go before the big dance and that anything could happen between now then. That was why they got 6-1, and not the 2-1 he would have been had he gone on to win the Jockey Club Gold Cup on Sept. 28 as scheduled. His problematic front right ankle, the one that kept him from running in the 2001 Kentucky Derby, flared up again and all that thinking is out the window. So is the ten dimes.
There were other interesting developments in future pool three, as we all learn more about how these bets work. Somebody dumped close to a thousand dollars on Gygistar in the Sprint as soon as the pools opened on Friday, making him the heavy favorite. He remained favored after two full days, and floated upwards slowly from then on, but still closed as the solid second choice at 6-1. The early money acted like a magnet, drawing others in.
If something seems to good to be true, it usually is, and in this case it was the surprisingly high odds on red-hot California speedster Disturbingthepeace in the Sprint. A winner of six straight, his morning line seemed about right at 8-1, yet he never dropped below 20-1. California sprinters have dominated the Breeders' Cup since its' inception, and since June, he's been the best in the west. Sure enough, I bet him, at 21-1, with just 4 minutes left before the pools closed. About a minute later, somebody else bet him too, and with both hands. He closed at 11-1. It was far and away the biggest dump of late money in any of the three pools to date. Was it “smart” money? We'll find out on October 26.
Apparently, name recognition counts for quite a bit in the futures, as evidenced by the amount of money bet on Derby winner War Emblem in the Classic. Coming off a no-excuse sixth in the Pacific Classic, he was the early future pool favorite and closed as the second choice at 7-1. The top three finishers in the Pacific Classic; Came Home, Momentum, and Milwaukee Brew, closed at 12, 9 and 14-1 respectively, far better value than the star-crossed Derby winner. With the defection of Street Cry, Godolphin is now far more likely to run their second-stringer, the front running E Dubai. A fast, classy older horse, he'll press War Emblem every step of the way, compromising both of their chances and setting the stage for a closer to sweep by in the stretch.
Occasionally, races are run during the wagering period that dramatically impacts the pools. This time, there was but one, the Forego. A Grade One, six and a half furlong sprint at Saratoga, it attracted last years' winner, Squirtle Squirt, who hadn't run since late January, and the hottest sprinter in the east this summer, Orientate. Prior to the race, both horses were 10-1. They ran as a team through a blistering opening half-mile, at which point ‘Squirt faded and Orientate kept right on going and drew off to win impressively. Cue the wagering. Orientate was hammered to 4-1 favoritism and the defending champ rose up to 12-1.
Not much of note happened in the Distaff wagering. The race sets up as a classic bi-coastal match race between the California-based Azeri, and the New York-based Summer Colony. However, Summer Colony stayed near 8-1 for most of the way while Azeri was around 5-2, exactly where she closed in the first pool six weeks prior. Finally, in the last few hours, Summer Colony was bet down to 5-1, and Azeri closed at 2-1.
Gambling is all about risk and reward. Street Cry bettors took a fairly short number on what they thought was close to a sure thing and got burned. The same was true for those who took Beat Hollow at 5-1 in the Turf three weeks ago. The price was far too low on a horse with obvious distance limitations and when it was announced he was being pointed for the Mile, not the Turf, those folks paid the price.
Those who had Came Home at 60-1 to win the Classic in the first pool, or Medaglia d'Oro at 25-1, are riding high. If there has been one lesson to come out of this initial foray into the Breeders' Cup futures, it's that taking short money with so much time left before the big day is a poor percentage play. The reward just doesn't justify the risk. If you really like a horse like Street Cry or Azeri, better to single them on top and spread out below in exotics come the big day, an angle that shows a huge profit over the past few years.
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