View Full Version : FORM + PRICE REVERSALS
allegro winner of R1 on 1/10/02 @ 38/1 had not finished better than 2nd last at his 3 starts last season at an average price of 209/1. raced with blinkers, trained by leung and ridden by ESM.
Another black mark against leung !!
has been another since then ( i think a fownes horse so will have a look ).
i don't mind 100/1 winners as these things happen sometimes but combined with the lower dividend it shrieks of the horse not trying at its previous starts ( let's get it down in the handicap and go for the kill ).
Steppin Short
11-10-2002, 19:22
The system in HK and Macau allows a trainer plan, and hopefully regain some costs for his owner.
Ok there maybe some unhappy punters, but if you follow the rating system, you will see where a horse is at a mark where he can win.
Early season often brings some surprises to some. A lot of the horses are not in top form, having rested and not in full race condition, where as some, such as Allegro, was in work throughout the break, although light work, but he was kept ticking over. He had the advantage of fitness and class relief, was at his mark and racing against some unfit horses.
Black mark for Leung? I'd say clever planning.
The handicapper is a little hard to figure out at times. Example Annabatik beat Hidden Dragon by a lip, A copped 10lb, whilst HD only 5lb. If you consider HD seemed a little unlucky, probably due to greenness. Harsh treatment for Annabatik
The system in HK and Macau allows a trainer plan, and hopefully regain some costs for his owner. Ok there maybe some unhappy punters
I think there must be more than a few unhappy punters.
From the steward's report on Oct 9:
quote:However, Mr Woods was advised the licence he has been granted by the Stewards to train in Hong Kong is not a right, it will be renewed annually and he has a responsibility along with all other licensed trainers to assist the Club to promote the sport of racing and provide an on track product which creates confidence for the fans in today's competitive environment.
How can this kind of form + price reversals possibly create "confidence for the fans in today's competitive environment"? It's precisely this type of reversals which drives punters to soccer betting.
cheesebeast
11-10-2002, 23:27
Surely soccer and other sports teams show inconsistency in their form?
I think the Sean Woods saga is a bit different to a form reversal as mentioned below and believe he has a valid point re tactics, seems like the stewards want him to know who's the boss?
Surely soccer and other sports teams show inconsistency in their form?
The first thing is that we're not talking about mere inconsistency but a *dramatic* reversal.
Moreover, as far as football and other sports are concerned, these sports per se do not involve any form of gambling. OTOH, at least in HK, the raison d'etre of horse racing is gambling. The JC is inviting the public to bet on the outcome of the races. We the punters therefore have a right to question how come such dramatic form reversals can occur. And remember it was not just a form reversal but a price reversal as well. If there are more winners like Allegro, punters might as well play the roulettes.
chrischrissie
12-10-2002, 00:37
An old sudy of form books seems to indicate that in handicapped races, horses frequently win for the first time in the current season when their postmark figures in the the last race is at the lowest this season. Of course their OR is also at the lowest and normally, perhaps, on a winning mark. Surely this is the fun of working out handicaps to try to follow training patterns for every handicapped horse has it's chance once in a while.
Christopher
P. T. Barnum
12-10-2002, 02:59
in the great scheme of things you punters have it pretty good in hong kong. on a world scale the degree of corruption you have to deal with is low indeed. surely you are over-reacting to your well quoted scandal involving the horse allegro. he was a southern hemisphere import who ran 3 times in his first season, appearing unfit and with poor riders and against far better opposition than he met when he returned to win. his handicap rating fell from 52 to 50 to 47 and then to 37, which he won off. he wore blinkers for the first time, had a top jockey and raced extremely poor opposition. this was borne out by the fact that he wasn't able to cope with a little stronger field the next run. and while his winning-day odds were not 100-1 as before, he was still one of the outsiders in betting and the difference in his odds was a mere 3 percent. but I am not a card-carrying member of the horse racing is squeaky clean union because we all know, where there's money, there's corruption. just work out a way to get your head in the trough and don't waste your time whining about it.
he was a southern hemisphere import who ran 3 times in his first season, appearing unfit and with poor riders and against far better opposition than he met when he returned to win. his handicap rating fell from 52 to 50 to 47 and then to 37, which he won off.
maybe he was not trying his nest in those races if the trainer deliberately raced him less than fully fit and with the poor jockeys.
assuming the public rated him a 200/1 shot again ( and why wouldn't they ) the 2.17% on him in the win pool may have scooped 80% of the win pool AND ALL THE OTHER POOLS.
All such horses with horrific form are going to drop a lot in the ratings. when the big price drop comes i will continue to assume they were not trying in the past whether they win or not.
he was a southern hemisphere import who ran 3 times in his first season, appearing unfit and with poor riders and against far better opposition than he met when he returned to win. his handicap rating fell from 52 to 50 to 47 and then to 37, which he won off.
Allegro's first run was also a 1600m race on March 24, a race he lost by 32-3/4 lengths. My question is: can one seriously accept that the changes above are sufficient to account for the 30+ lengths improvement?
this goes back to the other post talking about how you have to look at other things than just form. the horse has had a 2 month break to acclimatise and improve.
this is part of racing.
Some valid points being made here. And Hobbes is probably right, although when these new horses are considered not-trying, often they are simply not fit or not settled in or not wearing the gear they need to produce their best. Unfortunately the poor old punter doesn't usually know about this until it's obvious and too late.
chrischrissie
13-10-2002, 06:22
Of course horses are run whilst unfit, over wrong distances, with wrong jockeys, against superior opposition, etc. etc. This is what handicapping is all about! Every horse technically is meant to have a chance but in reality most haven't a hope in hell of winning. They are not in the race to win. The old saying, of course, is never to ask a horse to do what it has never done before. Old VDW used to quite all these. This is not being unfair to the punters - rather it is surely time for perhaps the industry to educate a little more as to what handicapping is all about. Ideally it is right that the top and bottom weights finish abreast, or very close, - and it often happens. That is good handicapping.
Christopher
although people in HK dont really have a choice, sometimes it's a good idea to stay away from handicap races. after all handicap races are supposed to give everybody a chance. that's why you get outsiders winning.
english racing is great, with a lot more level weights races, it's a lot easier to pick who the standout is :)
Kan qualified for quiz show
ALAN AITKEN
------------
Rookie trainer Sean Woods has been on unfamiliar and sometimes hostile territory with stewards over riding tactics - and even taken umbrage at it - probably because British trainers are brought before what passes for the judicial system there only in the event of suspected wrongdoing. In this environment, he will in time grow more used to the regular questions asked for the sake of reporting. However, he might currently think he is the only one being quizzed.
Form guides show that Saturday's long-priced winner Perfect Score (Jimmy Ting) was 10th at the start, then last to the turn, before running 12th over 1,400 metres at his first run for Brian Kan Ping-chee. A more accurate report of field position would place him about seventh after the start and very wide, whereupon Ting elected to drift to the tail of the field in order to get closer to the rail from barrier 14.
On Saturday, from the same position, Ting had no hesitation in rolling forward, putting his horse into the race where he could get balanced and Perfect Score never looked like losing. While it is accepted that the firmer ground and improved fitness played a role in the horse's win, the absolute reversal in tactics was a stark omission from the stipes' report.
Now it would seem reasonable that, having experienced Perfect Score once, Ting was more aware of the horse's abilities and, with the slower lead pace in the 1,600-metre event, decided his best prospect of getting a better run from a fairly one-paced horse was to do what he did. There is no argument with any of that but, for the sake of consistency, it might have been appropriate to ask the question, especially when the result was so different.
english racing is great, with a lot more level weights races, it's a lot easier to pick who the standout is
i couldnt disagree more. racing here is so much more exciting as a result of the handicapping. And races with a clear favorite and not much else would send me to sleep and i certainly wouldnt be having a bet.
chrischrissie
22-10-2002, 12:59
Consistent form + ability + probability + hard work = winners. It seems to work!
Christopher
Win On Track
24-10-2002, 11:44
racing or in fact punting is very easy.
Fit horses run faster than fat horses.
Just find out who is the fittest.
Horses put in poor performances because they have lost their fitness.
Its that simple.
Horny Harry
24-10-2002, 15:17
How do you tell if a horse is fit or not? Is this as easy to learn as you say? If it is easy, why isnt everybody winning?
Win On Track
25-10-2002, 11:42
Its easy once you spend about 20 years learning.
I rate horses in a percentage before races in Australia and this information helps me to seperate the unfit from the fit, with great success.
Not everybody would be capable of rating horses, in fact I think there a very few in the world that can do it with some high degree of consistency.
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