View Full Version : trainers premiership
What would be the odds of John Size being able to win the Hong Kong title in his first year?
Can the incredible Cruz run keep going?
Or will David Hayes take it out?
Hope this ok to read....
Size certainly has got some sort of chance. Even if he doesnt win its the best training effort ive seen in HK!
37 267 13.9% A. S. Cruz 1 1 2 18 26,163,870 17,448,270 29 12 29.2% 1,042.0
33 294 11.2% I. W. Allan 2 1 3 21 33,596,650 21,637,200 22 28 28.2% 974.5
31 256 12.1% D. Cruz 0 0 0 4 20,753,015 13,566,000 23 12 25.8% -15.5
31 333 9.3% D. Hayes 0 0 1 14 34,243,100 17,533,200 30 23 25.2% -241.0
28 137 20.4% John Size 1 1 0 5 24,985,500 16,170,900 18 25 51.8% -154.5
24 268 9.0% K. W. Lui 4 2 1 25 14,511,100 9,399,300 17 15 20.9% -40.5
23 352 6.5% Kan Ping-chee 3 3 2 29 25,305,035 14,426,700 37 22 23.3% -1,465.5
21 186 11.3% A. T. Millard 2 3 0 13 15,193,170 8,607,570 20 20 32.8% -703.5
20 260 7.7% J. Moore 3 2 3 26 16,113,500 7,655,100 20 25 25.0% -1,029.0
18 187 9.6% Wong Yu-on 3 0 3 17 13,017,570 7,746,300 18 19 29.4% -755.0
16 246 6.5% L. Ho 0 1 2 19 9,885,770 5,825,400 13 14 17.5% -1,150.5
16 238 6.7% P. F. Yiu 1 0 0 14 13,348,935 6,891,300 15 17 20.2% -734.0
16 214 7.5% Wong Tang-ping 1 2 1 24 13,171,750 7,341,600 21 16 24.8% -825.0
14 225 6.2% T. W. Leung 1 3 0 20 9,537,550 4,571,400 9 19 18.7% -694.0
13 290 4.5% L. Fownes 1 3 4 26 13,849,750 5,876,700 22 28 21.7% -1,380.0
12 192 6.3% G. Lane 0 3 1 18 10,330,200 4,702,500 15 22 25.5% -742.0
11 174 6.3% D. Oughton 2 0 1 7 9,374,600 5,078,700 12 12 20.1% 2,259.0
11 166 6.6% K. L. Man 1 0 2 15 8,681,200 3,995,700 19 15 27.1% 1,325.0
10 237 4.2% Ng Ting-keung 1 0 1 18 6,489,150 3,528,300 9 15 14.3% -334.5
9 137 6.6% Ng Bik-kuen 2 1 1 8 6,494,850 3,596,700 11 8 20.4% 74.5
6 209 2.9% Wong Siu-tan 0 4 0 19 7,317,465 2,793,000 10 13 13.9% -1,689.0
5 156 3.2% K. C. Lo 0 0 1 13 4,231,210 1,544,700 9 13 17.3% -1,029.5
3 125 2.4% D. Hill 1 0 1 11 5,182,750 2,034,900 9 13 20.0% -977.5
2 98 2.0% P. Chapple-Hyam 0 0 0 8 2,360,110 649,800 3 7 12.2% -729.0
well it reads ok but what does it all mean. where did I Allan come from and how did d. cruz catch d. hayes??
rubbintug
06-03-2002, 09:07
My market for trainers premiership:
2.2 John Size
4.5 Tony Cruz, David Hayes
7.0 Ivan Allan
34.0 Brian Kan
51.0 Derek Cruz
Write your own ticket the rest..
Cyberdollars accepted..
corkey boy
06-03-2002, 20:12
An absorbing contest.
I like Hayes to win from Size and base this result on how much ammunition each has to continue turning over winners.
Both the Cruz Bro's have had fantastic runs but I doubt there's that much left in the tank for the battles ahead. Perhaps Tony Cruz will fare better of the two and take third.
I'll lean toward Hayes for two reasons. He's got a handful of horses yet to race that are just starting to crank now. The other reason is that of his older stock, they'll be at their marks again in the handicapp come season end and will be competitive. Remember January was awful for Hayes' and while not winning, his horses were getting down in the ratings.
I love John Size. His effort on debut is nothing short of staggering. Its not over yet either. He has some new acquisitions that he'll undoubtingly improve to win multiple races and he has our seemingly world class handicapper by the balls which will ensure that his horses currently racing will be well placed and competitive.
I'd love to see Size win the title but I'll go with Hayes as its been proven that the stable who can get their horses down to their mark twice in a single season fair well and that he has slightly more ammunition than Size in the way of new horses.
1 Hayes
2 Size
3 Tony Cruz
4 Allan
rubbin
Can I have $30,000 to win Size and $20,000 to win on Hayes.
Cyber Dollars of course.
What a good bet!
[quote]Originally posted by corkey boy:
An absorbing contest.
I like Hayes to win from Size and base this result on how much ammunition each has to continue turning over winners.
Another consideration is how the ammunition is distributed. Judging from past results, a trainer whose horses are more evenly distributed among the different classes has an advantage over those who are top- or bottom-heavy.
Haven't done any detailed analysis but it seems to me that in this regard Hayes has an edge.
[ March 06, 2002: Message edited by: Masun ]
rubbintug
07-03-2002, 05:57
Update as of midnight Mar 6:
1.9 John Size
4.5 Tony Cruz
5.0 David Hayes
7.5 Ivan Allan
41.0 Brian Kan
61.0 Derek Cruz
You're on gelded!!!
cheesebeast
10-03-2002, 03:23
Update as of tonight Rubbintug?
What looked like a bold call a week or so ago not so bold now,as John Size marches on - 2 winners from 2 runners on Wednesday night, 2 from 4 today, his more recent strike rate must be looking pretty damn good. :) :p
corkey boy
10-03-2002, 20:17
Agree cb and i think my waffle a few posts ago should be disregarded.
No matter how much ammo either camp has, Size is seemingly assured to get multiple wins from each runner.
In view of that I'd like to change my tips
1 Size
2 Hayes
3 T Cruz
4 Allan
"Power is the ultimate aphrodisiac." Henry Kissinger
from shark on tnhrf >>
"It was JJ Size. His horses were hand walked twice a day EVERY day of the year, as well as being trained to enjoy their work and want to try. Were very happy horses that had a routine and very few track injuries, hence the success.
I knew one trainer in Randwick that only walked a few horses one afternoon, then a few the next ,while the others went nuts in their boxes wanting a turn, top bloke eh, shocking strike rate too."
size and dye combine to win 3 of the 1sst 6 races of 10 today so size now tied for 1st with cruz and allan. can he hit the front before the day is out ?? :cool: :cool: :cool: :cool: :cool:
cheesebeast
31-03-2002, 00:05
YES
:D :D :D
John Size hits the front with a win by the appropriatly named SCORE.
he now has 41 wins for the season. Go champ!
SlimChance
31-03-2002, 02:31
maybe a 5 timer next weekend!
anyone know gary moores records ???
Wouldn't write IWA off just yet.
Four-midable Size chases prize
Alan Aitken 31/03/02
Rookie trainer John Size finally conceded his chance to win the Hong Kong trainers' championship at the first time of asking yesterday as a four-timer at Sha Tin swept him to the top of the ladder in sensational style.
Shane Dye surged into second on the jockeys' table aboard the Size-trained Century Star, Billion Delight and Toymark to take the trainer level with Tony Cruz and Ivan Allan with 40 winners at the head of the table before Weichong Marwing pumped the rejuvenated eight-year-old Score past Monards in the final race to send Size clear on the leader board.
"I suppose I have to agree now that there is some possibility I might win it, but I'm sure I'm going to have to keep on training winners at the current rate," he said. "This is an extremely competitive environment, there are plenty of top trainers here and the system itself makes it tough to keep winning as the horses rise in the handicap.
"It isn't like, say, Australia where new horses are coming into your stable all the time. If I am going to win, I have to win with the horses that I have now. It has probably been easier to get to this point than it is going to be to stay here, but I have to say I'm extremely grateful.
"I could not have expected to have enjoyed a smoother entry to Hong Kong racing than I have had and whatever happens between now and the end of the season, I am very pleased with what I've done."
The laconic Australian has been all but unbackable in private championship betting for several weeks as his waves of winners continue to roll in, but the man himself has been unwilling to discuss the concept as a genuine possibility . . . until now.
"These other guys have been here a lot longer than me and they know the system better than I do, so they may have plenty still to come," Size said. "I don't know what pitfalls lie ahead in terms of the programming for the final part of the season and I don't know how many winners it will take to win the title - possibly less than Brian Kan had last year because there are several trainers capable of winning - but I think it's going to be important to find horses that can win more than one race if I'm going to get there."
When Toymark won to take him level with Cruz and Allan, Size took time out to thank his assistant, Benno Yung, for his part in such a successful debut season. "Before I came here, I was not really aware of the extent of the job that the assistant trainers do in Hong Kong and they do a marvellous job," he said.
"They carry a lot of responsibility and often I guess it isn't as well recognised as it deserves to be. Benno has been absolutely invaluable to me in the stable and helping with owners and in my communication with staff. I felt now was the time to say thank you."
This email was cleaned by emailStripper, available for free from http://www.papercut.biz/emailStripper.htm
tunginbum
04-04-2002, 05:58
There's no doubting his remarkable achievements this season...JJ Size....but he must be concerned about the number of bleeders he's producing.
More than any other stable - and 2 more to the list tonight...Cogito and My Favourite.
He may have inherited a few 'bleeders' but nonetheless, I'm sure JJ will be concerned.
Always a concern when a hot stable keeps producing bleeders ?
Not taking a strong position either way on whether there should be concern - but just a thought that it is Size's first experience here. This time of year is notorious for bleeders HK/Macau/Sing but perhaps there are ways to keep it to a minimum , ways of which he is unaware at this stage?
Sheer chance is an argument too, given that a high proportion of horses bleed in HK/M/S anyway.
________
new developments in Prathumnak (http://pattayaluxurycondos.com)
Monty Burns
04-04-2002, 20:35
Could be any number of explanations. But I wonder if his successful methods have just a small kink, by getting horses (particularly internal bleeders)that might have previously been protecting themselves to suddenly go out and want to race - and give everything. It could just bust those delicate types. But who really knows? And as we all know, a change of weather is never a good time for bleeders anyway.
cheesebeast
04-04-2002, 23:54
Anyone know if Size had a history of bleeders in Sydney?
Anyone know if Size had a history of bleeders in Sydney?
I remember someone saying so some time earlier but have not been able to find the original message.
Shallow Hal
24-04-2002, 01:51
News today that Best Of The Best has been transferred to Size.
Wonder if he can get some magic back into that old horse's legs?
As for the championship. Well, Size just isn't backing off...cannot see him being headed. But will be interesting to see if he can back it up next season with many higher-handicapped horses on the books.
Few trainers in HK have ever been able to follow one great season with another.
Hopefully Size can come up sufficient new horses to keep the phenominal run going. He's certainly a marvellous trainer.
[ April 23, 2002: Message edited by: Shallow Hal ]
horseshoof
24-04-2002, 09:01
Who said that SIZE didn't matter!!!!!!!!!!!
Smithers
10-05-2002, 16:11
Millard has been having a lousy run lately, seems he can be hot-and-cold. No winners since March some time?
And to make matters worse, he lost 4 horses yesterday, all moving to Tony Cruz. Citizen Kane was the most notable of them.
Millard has been having a lousy run lately
Remember reading some time ago there were problems in his stable, something to do with the exercise riders and/or mafoos not happy with the workload or whatever. Maybe someone can enlighten us on what really happened.
He pushed the horses too hard.
The majority of the horses in his stable are not well, lots of them have legs problem, especially the young horses.
No happy horses in his stable.
No happy staff in his stable.
Millard , before he got here hadn`t he had numerous convictions for drug use , last season the same thing happenned..wheels came off after Xmas , mail then was he was out of juice ?
corkey boy
11-05-2002, 21:19
Whatever he's got he has to work his horses a lot for it to do any good. Invariably, new acquisitions to his stable put on a lot of weight and their coats appear in enormous condition. Look how huge Noble Boy has become since moving from Fownes (up an avg 15 lbs). His griffins do not appear as babies either.
Nothing wrong with building a horses strength and condition mind you but to get to this stage the horses require loads of work and some just aren't copping it.
See the old pink stockings fella is rolling out plenty of big guns to see if he can run down Size. Even talking about backing up old Indigenous this weekend?
Probably going to be decided on the last day the way things are going.
Size had another bleeder on Saty night.
tunginbum
13-05-2002, 18:49
Millard ended a long drought on Saty night - along with Fayd'herbe.
They team up with the stable star Noble Boy on Wed night - returning after a little holiday and now going for 7 in a row !
Noble Boy has gone up a total of 56 handicap points since the first win of the season.
[ May 13, 2002: Message edited by: tunginbum ]
It's really incredible we have so many multiple winners this season. Yesterday Money Win chalked up its 4th win after moving from Brian Kan to D Cruz. Century Star also had its 4th consecutive win after switching from Eddie Lo to Size. Before that we had Noble Boy with 6 consecutive wins (Fownes to Millard) and Darwin also 6 wins (Lane to Size) -- from what I know, this is the first time ever that there are two horses with 6 wins in the same season.
An idea for the JC: in view of these results, perhaps there should be a policy whereby a horse cannot stay with the same trainer for more than, say, 10 or 15 races. This should save us the hassles of having guess whether a horse is trying or not!
right masun -- i cannot remember 2 horses both having 6 wins in the same season either, but as rubintug pointed out my memory for such things is not the best.
hobbes unfortunately my memory is not very good either. I remember reading something about there being two horses with 5 wins each in the same season in 1979 or thereabout. In any case, it was a long long time ago. The appearances of Size and Doleuze have cause an "El Nino" effect to the results this season.
In the same season I would not have thought 5 wins was rare - infrequent but not rare -
Last season Super Molly and Lucky Six both won 5 races.
99-2000 No Money No Honey won 5
98-99 Ho Ho won 6
97-98: Indigenous and Holy Grail both won 5, Billion Win 6.
________
Nexium Attorney (http://www.classactionsettlements.org/lawsuit/nexium/)
An interesting tidbit from Apple Daily. Should J Size win the premiership, he will NOT be the first trainer to do so during his first term. That distinction goes to J Moore who ahieved the feat in 85/86 (48 winners). However J Moore had already worked in his father George Moore's stable for a long time before becoming a trainer himself, whereas this is Size's first season in HK.
vBulletin v3.6.2, Copyright ©2000-2012, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.