Ruuuuggbyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

[imaufo]

There you go...you guys can keep all the rugby fans entertained here.

[imaufo]

jb
Senior Member

Registered: Mar 2002
Location:
Posts: 357
Argentina vs Namibia

Argentina currently paying $1.01 & they aint much good ?


--
"One can never be too RICH, or too PERVERTED" Oscar Wilde








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14-10-2003 09:17



jb
Senior Member

Registered: Mar 2002
Location:
Posts: 357
Blitz - 84-6 & won with a leg tied up.



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12-10-2003 13:54



jb
Senior Member

Registered: Mar 2002
Location:
Posts: 357
England vs Georgia in pouring rain.

Georgia currently a 1000-1....i cant help myself ?



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12-10-2003 11:57



jb
Senior Member

Registered: Mar 2002
Location:
Posts: 357
Its been close but the Scots are coming away now ..



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12-10-2003 11:40



Seabiscuit
Senior Member

Registered: Apr 2002
Location: Kentucky
Posts: 365
I just looked at a live score and it is only 11-15 after 57 minutes. Lucky I missed getting a bet on Scotland to win by 40 plus.


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Grumpy old men rule the world - don't you forget it!



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12-10-2003 11:31



jb
Senior Member

Registered: Mar 2002
Location:
Posts: 357
i`m filthy i missed the 100`s but i got 65`s.



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12-10-2003 11:16



jb
Senior Member

Registered: Mar 2002
Location:
Posts: 357
I got on the 40.5 start at $2.24 but geezz i`m weak becuase i`ve layed off to seal a victory.



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12-10-2003 11:02



cheesebeast
Senior Member

Registered: Jan 2002
Location: The Cheese Factory
Posts: 1252
Hard to believe they'd get special dispensation, they'd have to qualify against the likes of Korea, Taipei, Thailand, Hong Kong or something like that.

The Japs have gone fairly close to scoring on two or three occasions and while they'll probably lose they're not out for the count yet.


--
"If your wife doesn't love you, we will."

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12-10-2003 10:53

[cheesebeast]

Good to have this thread in here in sympathy with the Indians who unfortunately failed to qualify for the RWC.

I can just see it now, RWC final, year 2150 - the indian pack led by 8 burly sikhs laying seige to all comers, with a backline of very skinny yet speedy and elusive hindu saddhus winning the final by 30 points, get training, India!

[jb]

Crikey, Namibia must be close to the bottom team if Argentina can blitz them - Can imagine Aussi will thump them by 70 .

Rupeni CauCau was lucky not to be sent home , 2 games was a bit light for what he did - anyway he`ll be back for the important Scotland game &, can imagine the Scots will be filthy if he`s the diff of winning or losing ?

[Seabiscuit]

Argentina allegedly fielded their reserve team too although some people reckon they played better than the firsts. At least the lineout throws were OK this time.

yes Namibia must be just about the worst

[jb]

Onto todays game .

USA vs Fiji

Fiji Currently $1.21 but they are without there trump Rupeni & are a v-erratic side - looking over the form it appears to me that the Americans are about 10 to 20 points better than the Canadians or Uruguay......am thinking they might be value at $6.2....any thoughts ?

Better do some more study...

[Seabiscuit]

Yes on paper Fiji look slightly better team than USA but not by much. Handicapper probably fairly close again at 14.5.

I thought Fiji looked a bit poor against France as they lacked teamwork. But I have just backed Fiji to win by 18+ on Betfair at 2.44. Really just an interest bet.

Fiji having already had a game might help them.

[jb]

Yeah Fiji is full of brilliant individuals but dont work v-well as a team , they have some huge guys in there & can be v-intimidating .

I remember the USA 7`s team in HK having some speedy players...cant wait.

[jb]

Just had a look at the weather for the 3 games tonight .

Fine in Brisbane & Perth for the USA/Fiji & Uruguay/Samoa game but raining for the Italy/Tonga clash.

[cheesebeast]

USA game is under way 35 minutes gone 1st half and USA are up 6 -3.

USA still available at 3-60 in the Match Odds market, looks a fair bet, haven't been watching the game just checking the score, am on the septics at 4-90.

[cheesebeast]

6-3 halftime to USA, they can win this, go USA, reckon Fiji will get tired later in the match, they're up with the best in the world at 7's but have never been able to translate that into anything decent in 15-a-side.

[jb]

Cheese , u wouldnt believe theres no live coverage in NZ - please keep us updated.

[cheesebeast]

Check your email jb.

[cheesebeast]

Try USA 11-3 u beauty.:D :D

[cheesebeast]

2nd half had just started and still USA were available in win market at 3-80, seems a crazy price, they're in to 1-90 ish now.

[Seabiscuit]

Fiji are just a rabble as they were against the French. They are not guaranteed to beat anyone. There goes my interest bet. Such is life.

Australia should qualify top of their pool and get to play 2nd in this pool. Their quarter final should be a walk in the park as they will get to play either Scotland, Fiji or USA.

[cheesebeast]

13 - 11 USA, Fiji just scored but unconverted, 3-55 USA in win market, nice price, go USA!

[cheesebeast]

16 - 13 Fiji they're on a roll at the moment but USA still in the game and >5.20 to win.

[cheesebeast]

Conversion from the sideline for the yanks to win the game.:eek:

[cheesebeast]

No good, Fiji win 19-18.

[jb]

Geez what a game .

[imaufo]

Next contestant Richard.

Can you guys actually show a profit on this game??? If so Im willing to listen to any tips you may care to share!

[jb]

Italy win easy .

The way all the islanders have been going tonight , i`m keen on backing Uraguay at 40-1.

[jb]

Canada are $1.60 with 86.5 start....that means the Kiwis need to score 13 converted tries to win , since they cant kick it means they need to score around 16x.....they`ll need a big effort ?

[jb]

For humour i took a bit of the $1000....if u didnt know the history you`d think they were strong chances at this stage 7-3 to NZ after 24 minuites.

[Seabiscuit]

Canada are starting to open up now but it will still be hard for NZ to win by 87.

[jb]

Yeah the Canadians tired & NZ stretched them out to 68-6.

The Canadians were $4 with 65.5 start so a great effort by them to pull it off - certainly didnt look like that was enough before the game .
I quite like the way North Americans play the game - can imagine with more money & effort they could turn out one of the best ?

Looking on to tomorrows 3 games - 2 of them should be one sided with Japan-France & Aussi-Romania but all eyes will be on Sth Africa-England , cant believe Sth Africa may be $8 ....i`d back them against anyone at $8

[cheesebeast]

I'm on the Poms at 1 -16.5 handicap here, if it wasn't a night game I think would be a slaughter but the night matches are often a bit lower scoring.

[Seabiscuit]

Some free money available on England v SA. SportOdds offering 1.76 England at -12.5 while you can lay on Betfair at 1.68 or 1.69.

Sportodds also are offering better odds at England -16.5 than Betfair but no arb opportunity as yet.

First really meaningful game of the WC. I am not sure. As I have backed England to win the whole thing I will be watching the overall winner market to see if I should lay off England, back someone else or (if England do well) let it ride.

[jb]

Thats twice the Japs have surprised everyone 51-29 .

[Seabiscuit]

The Poms' confidence is growing by the minute. England odds are shrinking. Betfair odds on England are becoming poorish versus odds available elsewhere. Can virtually get an arb on all 3 BF Handicap markets with Sportodds at least.

-16.5 handicap has England at 2.06 (before commission on BF) but 2.15 with Sportodds.

So Betfair is the best place to back SA.

[Seabiscuit]

I have backed England to win by 17 plus at 2.15.

[Seabiscuit]

I have laid off my bet on England to win the whole thing.

South Africa are doing well to gain and maintain a fair share of possession.

England just haven't looked anything special. I think they should have been more dominant to justify their price.

[cheesebeast]

Never cheered so much for England in my entire life, god love Jonny Wilkinson! The points spread bets went down to the wire, and I was actually all set to cover my initial bet when England scored their try.

You're right Seabiscuit they didn't look anything special but they ground out a decent win, they're still a good shout to get to the final because they've only got to get past France. They seem to lack any attacking instinct in their backline, and Wilkinson is nothing to all the wraps they have on him.

[Seabiscuit]

English fans are easily pleased. England won by 19 pts in the end but I did not think they were overly impressive. But now they have been bet down to 2.62 on Betfair.

Until the charge down try South Africa were right in the game. Margin flattered England.

World Cup looks a bit more open than the English fans are prepared to admit.

[Seabiscuit]

Yes J Wilkinson got my bet home on England to win by 17 plus. But SA kicker missed quite a few so perhaps I should thank him instead!

[jb]

I thought when they needed to go up a gear they did .

France were disapointing - Japan certainly have played above themselves so far , the game against USA could be v-close ?

Picking the top tryscorer is a lottery at the moment but the Frenchman Michalak looks hard to beat in the top point scorer.

[Seabiscuit]

The English look like being the master penalty pullers of this tournament. The game plan is just get the ball in the opposition half and pull a penalty - Wilko slots the goal. Or if they don't give away a penalty Wilko slots the drop goal. Australia pretty much used similar tactics to win in 1999.

I don't like this sort of stuff and so now I would like to see England lose. I thought that ball in hand England were nothing special (although they did have some injuries). I think England can be beaten.

It is possible that the whole France-Scotland-Fiji-Japan pool is a dud. Either that or Japan are a very good minnow side.

[cheesebeast]

Ireland v Namibia on now in poor conditions - I'm going to have a bit of the namibians at the points spread, should be hard for Ireland to rack up a big score in the rain?

[cheesebeast]

Maybe not, these namibians are awful, haven't got a bet on yet, what to do?

[cheesebeast]

Think I'll stay out, the Irish are looking OK here.

Georgia v Samoa looks interesting, I think the spreads on BF are too low, get on the Samoans.

[cheesebeast]

Can't help meself - the odds are a bit screwy on the Namibians at halftime?

Namibia +59.5 points @ 2-32
Namibia + 62.5 points @ 1-74
Namibia + 65.5 points @ 1-62

Don't think there should be a 60c margin for 3 points so I'm on the Namibians at +59.5, hope it pisses down for the next 40 minutes.

[Seabiscuit]

I see Gunslinger on Betfair chat is declaring the Georgians on the handicap markets. I might back the Georgians myself on handicap of around 40 or so. I thought their forwards went OK against England. My only worry is that whenever they got the ball against England they gave it away by either kicking it or dropping it. I hope this was just a result of the pressure of playing a top level team and they realise you can only score points if you have the ball in your hands.

I missed the Irish game but it looks like the 59.50 handicap will be close.

[Seabiscuit]

I have just backed Georgia with 39.50 start at 2.08 with Sportodds who were offering slightly better odds than Betfair.

[cheesebeast]

Yep the +59.5 handicap's close all right, two minutes for Ireland to get another try, I've closed out for a nice profit, looks like the Irish might get it.

[cheesebeast]

I'm not convinced by Gunslinger's arguments, I think it's very difficult to line up form from these minor countries. Unfortunately didn't see England v Georgia but they must have been reasonable the Georgians.

Samoa is easily the best of the South Pacific teams, most of their team play Super 12 or in England - they looked real good to me the other night against Uruguay, they've got a decent set of backs and should score plenty of points, I think the bigger handicaps will probably be very close?

Good luck out there.

[Seabiscuit]

I saw Georgia play England and I was quite impressed by their forwards. Big strong boofy guys who held on pretty well. I also felt they showed some nice skills elsewhere. As I said below they were hopeless when it came to maintaining possession. If they can get a decent share of possession I think their tough forwards give them a show of keeping within the 39 limit.

I did not see Somoa play and the scoreline looked impressive so I am betting blind to some extent.

[Seabiscuit]

Another game where the handicap is going to be fairly close. was around the 40 mark this game and 15 point margin at halftime. But Georgia likely to tire a bit in the second half.

Somoa are a bit better than I thought. Simple but effective game with lots of decisive hard running.

Georgia though are no mugs with the forwards again going quite well for a minnow nation. Problem as I suspected is keeping possession. Again they are just kicking the ball away too often. They would be better off if they had more of a go. Also they are hopeless when receiving a ball from the kickoff after scoring points so get no momentum.

[Seabiscuit]

Handicapping very accurate again. Line betting was around 38.50 most places. Final margin 37 to Samoa.

[jb]

Good call betting the handicaps in the wet ....well done.
guys.

[cheesebeast]

Game on again tonight, cheesebeast got on a nice roll over the weekend so here's hoping it can continue.

Scotland v USA - looks to me as though Scotland are excellent value in the points spread tonight?

Scotland -22.5 @ close to evens, the biggest spread of -33.5 is @ 3-80 to 3-90. Perhaps will stay away from the bigger spread market but might lay USA for a bit in there?

Scotland beat Japan by 20+ only pulling away in the last 20 minutes. Looks OK form after Japan gave France a bit of a fright. And they nearly beat South Africa in SA prior to the tri nations which makes me think if they're on their game they could go OK in the bigger spread market.

I think the spread is so low due to the close score Fiji v USA 19-18 but have a suspicion that Fiji aren't much good?

My theory about these match ups is that the 6 Nations teams are a level or two above the other countries as they get far more competitive rugby on a regular basis.

I'm piling in to the Scots.

[jb]

I think your right about the Fijians , is hard to think that the Jap form is fairly strong but thats whats happenned ??

Tricky game , good luck CB.

[cheesebeast]

You would probably have seen this in the NZ Herald JB, I thought quite a good summary.

David Kirk: The going is about to get tougher

20.10.2003


We have learned a lot about four of the five World Cup contenders in the last week.

France remain the enigma. As they have been at all previous cups. Brilliant one minute, bumbling Inspector Clouseaus the next.

They were truly appalling against Japan in Townsville, but all of us believe they will solve the riddle of their own inconsistency at some point in the tournament.

Journalists travelling with the French team believe that this is a much stronger side than the one who beat the All Blacks in the semifinal in 1999. Then, France were the team of youngsters having a go. Now they believe they are a disciplined, structured team of hardened professionals. We will see.

The England-South Africa match yesterday was the big one of the tournament so far and we learned a great deal about both teams. It is now clear that if the All Blacks are to win this tournament they will have to beat South Africa, Australia and England in consecutive weeks.

That is a tough assignment, far tougher than the run any previous All Black team has had to the final.

The odds on England's winning the cup must have shortened after yesterday's match. France in a semifinal will hold no real worries for England. They have had the psychological edge on the French for a couple for years now and their suffocating style of play is tailor-made for wearing down a team who rely on passion and inspiration.

The only risk is that Superman, not Clark Kent, turns up in a French jersey on November 16.

We need to face the facts squarely: England were very good in Perth against South Africa.

They soaked up 60 minutes of Springbok fervour, a fervour that, as we know in New Zealand better than most, comes from a deep and hungry reservoir of rugby tradition and history. It meant everything to the Springboks to win that match, absolutely everything, and they threw everything at it.


The English lineout was efficient and muscular, but the scrums were surprisingly inconsistent. I think this sent more of a warning sign about the quality of the Springbok scrum than a hint that the All Blacks might find a weakness to exploit.

In any event, should the All Blacks play England in the final, they will not want to engage in an energy-sapping set-piece battle.

What was most impressive about England, besides their composure and Jonny Wilkinson's kicking for goal, was their outstanding defence.

It takes a number of forms. First, they are rock-solid around the rucks and mauls. The communication and organisation is clear and their physical presence is enormous.

They go forward, with monster ball-carriers invariably slowing the release as they "roll away" with the urgency of a sloth on holiday.

I have always thought that Neil Back was too old and not skilful enough to be a world-class No 7, but in the style of play that England have developed, he is a huge contributor.

The English midfield defence is also very tight, but it is the swarming, suffocating defence from broken play that really sets them apart. Every player is a good defender, they all go forward to make tackles, and the second tackler arrives quickly.

Most importantly, all the players seem to read the defensive lines well. They make the right decisions early and press up and in. This is a team who have played together for a long time and their defence shows it.

Australia and New Zealand both had easy games at the weekend. Australia gained a lot more from their 90-8 win over Romania than New Zealand did in their 68-6 win over Canada.

Australia really needed the performance they put together. Thirteen tries, 11 by backs, Larkham ghosting into gaps and off-loading hard and flat, Rogers hitting the line square, sure hands, quick interchanges, changes of direction, lots of support for the ball-carrier. It is a long time since we have seen that from a Wallaby team.

They started the tournament a long way from where they needed to be to win it. Their only hope is to build through each match and steadily improve, gaining confidence, precision and settled combinations as they go.

The win against Romania will have given the team, and especially the backs, the confidence to play the only style of rugby they can play and hope to retain their crown.

The All Blacks were effective in putting Canada to the sword. But it was not a match that particularly took the team anywhere. It was just another match against a weak team. When they had to, the All Blacks went up a few gears.


In the big ones they will not have the luxury of a quick change-up when they need it. They will need to play with the foot to the floor from the first minute.

The pool match against Wales has a lot more significance than a predictable win. In this match the All Blacks will have to play well enough so they can go on to beat South Africa and Australia, for they will need the confidence and precision to do that.

And as for the final against England - if the All Blacks make it that far, which I believe they will - they will need another box of tricks altogether.

[cheesebeast]

NZ have named their team to play Tonga on Friday and Nonu is in the reserves, so they're in a bit of strife trying to get their best team on the paddock due to injuries, form etc.

[Seabiscuit]

I won't be betting on tonight's game. There seems to be something weird going on with the Brisbane games so far - I just get a blue screen (can hear the sound but no pictures). So I missed watching USA play the other day. I didn't really watch Scotland play either so have no real opinions on either team. Here is the form courtesy of the BBC Sport website. Interesting the USA thumped Japan in May (in the USA). Of course Scotland struggled a bit to put Japan away the other night. Apart from that the form does seem to suggest that Scotland are better. But they do have to beat 22.50 start. So without seeing the teams I am staying out.

FORM IN 2003
16 Feb: Scotland 6-36 Ireland
23 Feb: France 38-8 Scotland
8 Mar: Scotland 30-22 Wales
22 Mar: England 40-9 Scotland
29 Mar: Scotland 33-25 Italy
7 Jun: S Africa 29-25 Scotland
7 Jun: S Africa 28-19 Scotland
23 Aug: Scotland 47-15 Italy
30 Aug: Wales 23-9 Scotland
6 Sep: Scotland 10-29 Ireland


FORM IN 2003
12 Apr: Spain 13-63 USA
27 Apr: USA 58-13 Spain
17 May: USA 69-27 Japan
18 Jun: Canada 11-16 USA
21 Jun: England XV 36-10 USA
28 Jun: England XV 43-6 USA
23 Aug: USA 8-42 Argentina
27 Aug: USA 35-20 Canada
30 Aug: USA 31-17 Uruguay

1 England (1298),
2 New Zealand (1278),
3 Australia (1108),
4 France (1103),
5 South Africa (1006),
6 Ireland (929),
7 Argentina (858),
8 Scotland (756),
9 Wales (699),
10 Samoa (675),
11 Canada (569),
12 Fiji (561),
13 Italy (549),
14 Tonga (527),
15 Japan (457),
16 United States (445),
17 Georgia (363),
18 Romania (357),
19 Namibia (303),
20 Uruguay (295).

[Seabiscuit]

Interesting write up from NZ there Cheesebeast. NZ have a very easy pool but get a very tough draw after that. NZ will have to win 3 serious games in a row to win. If all the games go according to plan and NZ do have to play SA, Aust, England then it might be worth laying NZ at 2.82 Betfair and then backing NZ allup in each game. I suspect the allup bet might pay more than 2.80 or so. But of course there is a risk of things not going to plan (eg France make the final).

England do have a pretty soft run to the final.

[Seabiscuit]

Finally got pictures for Brisbane tonight. Only early days 7 minutes (gone) but I do like the look of the enterprising USA play. Their running nice angles with nice short passes and halfback controlling things. More like rugby league style play. I like it and better than the stodgy play of most rugby teams (even the top ones) who just run straight and hard into the defence without any attempt to breach the defensive line with some cleverness.

[jb]

Half time 24-9 - USA started good but fell away.

[Seabiscuit]

Yes. USA are quite OK when they get the ball in their hands and better than most minnows. But their lineout is poor. This means they struggle to get possession and the pressure builds up. You cannot score points without the ball.

[jb]

Yeah there lineouts are awful but they play everything else pretty well ?

They kick good , its 12-24 now to Scotland.

[cheesebeast]

What an awful game! I've swapped sides am on the Yanks now @ +22.5, hope they can hang on, so many errors from both sides and the ref's having a shocker......

[jb]

Cheese your first call was spot on - the Fijian form looks poor - Scotland will prob beat them easy ?

[Seabiscuit]

Yes it was an awful game. It is starting to look like that whole Pool is pretty awful. France can be dangerous on their day but the rest are awful. Scotland will probably go through and Australia probably get them in the quarters.

USA just kept dropping the ball in the second half but for some strange reason Scotland weren't scoring any points.

[cheesebeast]

I guess my first call was close to the mark - I swapped again at the end when I thought the Scots would get their margin, ended up with a small profit but nowhere near as much if I had let my original bet ride - I think if you trade actively in these games you can do quite well? I'm basically running from the TV to the computer which is too far away and not quick enough to get some of the good prices!

[cheesebeast]

Italy v Canada tonight - my first instinct was to go with the Italians but on second thoughts have decided I'm game to take them on, I sure think the match odds of 1-12 are way too short, I would have thought much closer to 50/50?

Both teams posted similar scores against NZ, am just going against my theory of rating the 6 Nations teams a bit higher than the likes of Canada but we will see. I think Italy tend to mix their form a bit. they kept England to a 35 point margin in the 6 Nations and got thrashed by plenty more by some of the other teams.

Some chance of showers which might help Canada whose forwards looked decent against NZ.

Good luck! Could be the first upset of the tournament.

[Seabiscuit]

According to one version of the rugby world rankings Canada are ranked ahead of Italy.

1 England (1298),
2 New Zealand (1278),
3 Australia (1108),
4 France (1103),
5 South Africa (1006),
6 Ireland (929),
7 Argentina (858),
8 Scotland (756),
9 Wales (699),
10 Samoa (675),
11 Canada (569),
12 Fiji (561),
13 Italy (549),
14 Tonga (527),
15 Japan (457),
16 United States (445),
17 Georgia (363),
18 Romania (357),
19 Namibia (303),
20 Uruguay (295).

[Seabiscuit]

I have not seen either of these teams play so I am just following these rankings (which seem half reasonable). I have backed Canada +14.50 at 2.52 on Betfair. Canada were beaten twice by the USA this year but only by an average of 10 points or so.

[jb]

Agree , when both sides played NZ they looked about the same strength & i dont need much encouragement to back an outsider......hopefully this will be first favorite beaten ?

Also jumping onto the 14.5 start....go the Canadians!

[jb]

The Canadians put in a massive effort for the first 20 minuites against NZ , if they can repeat that then the 10`s is huge value for trading ??

[cheesebeast]

Here's the Canberra weather map - looks like the rain is approaching.

You can also get a bit of $15-00 about a Canada/Canada half time/full time win on BF but no in running betting in this market.

http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR403.shtml

[jb]

I read where they have played 3x previously & the Canadians lead 2-1........geez i`m a bad rugby judge but the 10`s looks overs .

[cheesebeast]

Never seen that bookings market b4 - I'm not betting in there but if this is a tight match there could be a yellow card or two!

[jb]

I didnt fully understand the bookings bet....what is it ??

Light drizzle at the kick-off & thats got a tad heavier.

Currently 3-3 after 26 minuites.

[cheesebeast]

2003-10-21 17:30 (HK) (2003-10-21 19:30 (AEST)) What will be the total points make-up of Yellow and Red Cards in this match? This market will be suspended at the start of the match. Regular Time only.

Yellow Card=2pts

Red Card=5pts

So options are 0 points = no cards
2 - 5 points
> 6 points

Tight game here but Italy looking more likely to win - Canada are getting shafted in the scrums and lineouts, the points spreads might tend to favour Canada due to the conditions but they're not offering much attack the Canadians so might struggle to score too many points?

[jb]

Half time & its 9-6 to Italy .

Yeah the Italians offer more on attack but not by much.

[Seabiscuit]

Yes the Canadian lineout and scrum is a real worry as they are struggling to get possession. The only thing that is saving them is that Italy are quite ordinary with the ball (dropping it a lot). I think Canada need to get some more points to cover the points start. It is possible Canada could fade in the last 20 minutes and let in a few tries.

[cheesebeast]

Still close - Canada actually seem to be getting into the game a bit in the last 10 minutes, went closeish to scoring a try, keep it up boys.

[Seabiscuit]

Even though Canada did not win that was a good call Cheesebeast. Canada went close in the last 10 minutes there to winning it. Bringing on that tall guy to fix up the lineout late in the 2nd half helped a lot.

I must say that Italy are very ordinary for a team that gets plenty of experience against good sides in the Six Nations. The Italians really plodded.

[jb]

Yeah good judgement CheeseBeast - the 10`s were overs , i`d say they were around $2.50 to 3.00 ?
I thought the Canadians were going to score in the last 5 minuites...turned out a super game.

That slippery ball makes it hard to get a lot of points.
I think there were 2 or 3 yellow cards ?
Actually most games have players sent off , makes the game more entertaining ?

What about tomorrow CB Argentina - Romania ?

[cheesebeast]

I had a good game there guys, my best yet I think - ended up with a small loss in the win market - I covered when I figured Italy were going to get home which was before Canada got close, and they sure got close! - but cleaned up nicely in the spread markets.:D

JB they have stats for yellow cards on the official RWC website, so can check there for which teams might be more likely to offend. Actually the stats looked quite low but seems when I'm watching matches the cards are not too infrequent? And perhaps some of the refs are a bit more trigger happy than the others, I might go through it all later tonight and keep tabs on it.

Off the top of my head I would have thought Argentina would be vastly superior to Romania, although I was fairly disappointed with what the Argies produced against Aus. Romania certainly got pasted by Aus the other day, perhaps not their strongest team?

Seems Romania were only beaten by 40 by France recently and actually looks close to a full strength French side - score was 56 - 8 in Lens, France. And they held the Irish to a 28 margin earlier in the Cup - maybe the money should go on the Romanians - anyone see the Ireland v Romania game? They actually only lost the second half 19-17.

Would be inclined to back the Romanians in the +49.5 market with some confidence, and probably have a crack at them in the +43.5 market too. But will probably go down to the wire. The report from the RWC site tends to suggest the Argies aren't going all out in this one and are more concerned about Ireland who they want to beat to qualify second. Will post this above.

The spreads they choose are interesting - that Irish game the other day where there was a 60c margin for a 3 point difference in spread I suspect was due to the 7 point thing - the 43.5 and 49.5 spreads in this match are just above the 6 and 7 converted try difference - so in effect the Argies have to get ahead by 7 and 8 converted tries on those two spreads. Might help the Romania backers.

[cheesebeast]

A Pumas change

Argentina have announced a vastly changed lineup for their clash with Romania on 22 October at Aussie Stadium, coach Marcelo Loffreda making six modifications to his starting lineup and also naming his third captain in as many games.

Ever tuning his first XV for both the rigours of a Rugby World Cup calendar and also the particulars of his opposition, Loffreda has opted for a side that can best handle the physically tough and unpredictable Romanians, with flanker Santiago Phelan to lead the Pumas, squad captain AgustÃ*n Pichot sitting on the bench for the match.

“We have two games in 96 hours, if we had five, six, seven days from game to game we could do other selections, but in this case we must use our resources as best we can,� Loffreda said.

“Romania played a very physical and tough game against Australia, when somebody plays that type of game you're not sure how they are going to react because maybe they'll try to take revenge [for their defeat to Australia].

“I think that will be the reaction of the Romania team, they will try to play us as the last game they can take [win], so it will be very, very difficult for us.�

Corleto looks forward

Star full back Ignacio Corleto will sit on the bench for the match but, like Loffreda, believes the forward contest will tell the tale of the match.

“The important things is not their ability with the ball, but in with their forwards,� Corleto, who scored Argentina's opening try of RWC 2003 against Australia, told rugbyworldcup.com.

“If you play with a lot of phases their defence struggles and becomes disorganised. Australia did that and it caused miles of problems.�

The last encounter

Last time the two teams met was in August 1998, and the intermission has witnessed a marked change in style for both nations with players for both sides competing professionally, mainly in France.

Ten Pumas in Wednesday’s line up that were also in the side that beat Romania 68-22 that day - Jose Orengo, Pichot, Gonzalo Quesada, Nicolás Fernández Miranda, Phelan, Rolando Martin, Pablo Bouza, Pedro Sporleder, Omar Hasan and Federico Mendez.

Diego Albanese, who also played that day but will be rested for this RWC match, believes the two sides though similar in content are different in form.

“In that time both teams were not professional. In our team, 95% played in Argentina [were not professional] now only a handful do,� Albanese said.

“A lot of players play for money now, including the Romanians who play in various professional European teams.

“With such time passing since the turn of professionalism I don’t know which team will be better because the only thing I know about Romania is that a lot of the team plays in France.�

The opinion of the rival

One of the players who stood out in the last encounter for Romania was fly half Ionut Tofan, who alongside his captain and centre Romeo Gontineac will face the Pumas.

Tofan remembers the last match to be a tale of two halves, the first competitive and hard fought, the second injury fraught which allowed the Pumas to eventually run away with the game.

“Argentina did have a competitive team but they have changed a lot since. They are now elite. In the case of Romania we have also grown, but at a slower rate,� he said.

All the action of the Aussie Stadium clash can be caught at live at rugbyworldcup.com from 20.30.

[cheesebeast]

Match is in Sydney with some chance of rain which may help keep the score down.

Wed, Oct 22

Late shower
min: 15°C
max: 23°C

[jb]

Sounds like there could be some yellow cards ?

[cheesebeast]

Argies have blown like a gale in the -49.5 spread market. From around the 2-40 mark out to 3-00 now - may be team news related, but the 3-00 now looks tempting.

I've got no confidence whatsoever in tipping this game, it seems very tricky to me, will just have a small interest here I think.

Looks like some chance of rain. :confused: :confused:

NEW SOUTH WALES:
A moderate to fresh milder south to southeast change moving through the Hunter
and Midnorth Coast during the afternoon and reaching the far north coast
tonight. Warm northerly winds ahead of the change with chance of isolated
afternoon thunderstorms on the Mid North coast today and about the far north
coast and adjacent ranges tomorrow. Isolated showers or drizzle developing
after the change on the coast and adjacent ranges, mainly overnight and morning.
Fine inland although some cloud developing in the southern inland tomorrow ahead
of a late southwest change.
Moderate southwest to south winds inland, tending northwest tomorrow in south
ahead of the change.

[Seabiscuit]

Tonight's game is too tricky. Handicaps of 45 or 46 look about right based on facts and figures.

The fact that Romania got slaughtered last time and Argentina won easily lead me to think Romania would be more likely to be value on the spreads. Especially when Argentina would really be focusing on the Ireland game (you would think). But I haven't seen Romania play and am unsure if they have anything that will hold up a better team for a while.

I will leave tonight's game alone.

I have instead had a small bet on tomorrow's game Japan v Fiji. I have backed the Japs with 27.50 start at 1.32 on Betfair. At first I was thinking Fiji might improve here (and they might). But according to those quite accurate Zurich ranking Fiji are only about a 9 or 10 point better team (and several bookies have gone up with this as their 1.90 mark). 1.30ish with 27.50 headstart just looks like a good bet even at skinny odds.

Japan are about 4.40 to win outright which is OK too (on Betfair).

[jb]

Last night Romania with 43.5 start was about $2.15 , now they are into $1.85.

Been disapointed with the Fijians & impressed with the Japs , yeah i`ll back them with a start & prob with odds as well..

[zeditave]

bit of fun for you guys, and maybe a free bet for your mates who haven't found the need to use an exchange yet...

http://www.betfairpromo.com/BFworldcup/australia/

[cheesebeast]

Too hard Zed - the All Blacks won anyway.:p

[cheesebeast]

I'm real keen on Japan, match odds, points spreads, everything! Love the way they play, they're fearless and have decent backs so should get some points up, the Fijians play like headless chooks I struggle to see them winning?

Your 1-32 bet's in to 1-18 Seabiscuit, nice, crazy spread I think.

Japan/Japan halftime/fulltime has been matched at 6-00, might be a good bet when there's a bit more liquidity in that market, should get a better price than that if the straight win price is 4-50

Note from below report Nicky Little - Fiji's goalkicker is actually in the reserves, as is Vunibaka the Crusaders winger - Serevi is playing at 10.

From RWC website

Ins and outs

Japan has made seven changes to the side beaten by France in their last start. The Cherry Blossoms have lost the services of their experienced lock Hiroyuki Tanuma for the rest of the Tournament after the 30 year old damaged ligaments in his right knee against France. He has been replaced in the starting line up by Hajime Kiso.

Other starters in the pack include props Hajime Yamamoto, coming off the bench for Shin Hasegawa, and Masahiko Toyoyama.

In the back line, fly half Takashi Tsuji returns for Yuji Sonoda, Yukio Motoki and Ruben Parkinson are the new midfield combination while Tsutomu Matsude wears the No. 15 jersey.

Fiji has also made seven changes to their team with loose head prop Isaia Rasila in the starting side after attending his mother’s funeral in Fiji.

Lock Kele Leawere, fly half Waisale Serevi and full back Norman Ligairi also get another chance to impress. While Emori Katalau (No. 4), scrum half Sami Rabaka and centre Epeli Ruivadra all get their first start at RWC 2003.

Key players

Rupeni Caucaunibuca is again missing for Fiji, the wing serving the second of his two match suspension, although Vilimoni Delasau proved a more than adequate replacement with some dazzling runs against the Eagles.

Fly half Nicky Little will again be an important figure for the Pacific Islanders and not only for his kicking.

However Fiji will not be the only team with explosive wings at Dairy Farmers Stadium with the Cherry Blossoms’ own Daisuke Ohata and Hirotoki Onozawa having caused France and Scotland no end of problems with their speed.

New Zealand born fly half Andrew Miller was at the heart of everything Japan did against France, making several breaks and kicking well for touch.
.

[cheesebeast]

TOWNSVILLE
Humid. A shower or two overnight and morning. The chance of thunderstorm
tonight. Light to moderate NW to NE winds, fresh at times during the afternoon.

[Seabiscuit]

Japan are into 1.13 or 1.14 on the 27.50 line. That is a much more reasonable price.

I have also backed Japan to win with 7.50 start at 2.40 odd on Betfair.

Fiji were a rabble when I saw them against France. No teamwork. Hopefully the same thing will happen again and Japan maintain their standards. If this happens Japan have to be a good chance to win outright.

[jb]

Agree with everything been said about Fiji - they are full of individuals & dont operate as a team.

I`ll jump into the match odds...good luck guys.

[cheesebeast]

What do u think about the weather forecast - hard to say if wet weather is likely to favour either team, at a guess might help Japan a bit more as they are more structured and Fiji will just biff it around and knock it on more? The Japs have a dead-eye dick goalkicker too from memory?

Also note from ninemsn.com.au they reckon the wind's about 29 km/h so might be a bit of an advantage for the team that plays with the wind in the first half.

[jb]

The Japs did have a good goalkicker but i was reading where the coach has sacked him for the game....dunno whos kicking now?

Can imagine the wet weather will favour the Japs more for the same reasons u mention.

[Seabiscuit]

That wasn't a very good result. Japs losing by 28 when I had only a 27.50 start.

It was a bit of a strange game. Japan had plenty of possession and territory but everytime they got inside the Fiji 22m line in the second half they dropped the ball.

Fiji's backs were too big and strong for the little Japanese backs in the end.

[cheesebeast]

Ouch, sore bottom, got shafted there!:mad: :mad: :mad:

[jb]

Yes bad result .

What about tomorrow ?

[cheesebeast]

Looks tricky to me today JB.

Forecast for late thunder?

http://mirror.bom.gov.au/radar/IDR503.gif?20031024151542

Looking at this weather map seems like plenty of rain about.

NZ have started very slowly against Italy and Canada but they're just as likely to fly the gates in one of these matches?

Given the weather you'd have to think Tonga might be able to restrict the scoring but hard to say - in their favour is NZ having yet another midfield combination?

I think better to get involved for small stakes and trade throughout the match - I'm going with the Tongans on the highest spread.

I think I got caught out a bit by the wind last night - it was a bit tricky to pick up how strong it was on the TV - but that drop goal form halfway was a clue. I think it kept the Japs in the game and gave them a flattering scoreline.

For all that they were impressive in parts and woeful in others. Their scrum pound for pund would have to be the best at the CUp, they were pushing the Fijians around at will in the first half, although another sign that they were tiring was that their scrum was nowhere near as dominant in the second half. Woeful under the high ball, seemed they were terrified of being monstered by big Fijians!

[cheesebeast]

Georgia could be an OK bet in the spreads, they kept Samoa to 37 points and slowed England down, SA have something of a second string lineup although some of their new guys might be a bit better than the 1st team regulars, their new backline looks OK?

Some chance of rain in Sydney too.

[jb]

Cant blame anyone being scared under the high ball with those Fijians steaming at yuh.

These Tongans can go a bit - they hung in there against Italy & were v-competitive against the Welsh , one good thing u need when backing longshots is having a good goalkicker......the Tongans have a fair one ?

Anyway 67.5 start is a big one - that means about 10 converted tries , if theres any rain about it would only slow the game down - can imagine NZ will have a huge edge with scrums/lineouts & also have a stack of xtra pace out wide....makes it tricky ?

[jb]

NZ - Tonga should have more than a few yellow cards - the Tongans said earlier they were hoping to bash a few...should be interesting ?

Just got a live weather report & good chance of thunderstorms & a rough chance of hail.......geez that`d be good ?

I`m backing both roughies with the start....cheers & good luck 2 all.

[Seabiscuit]

The Japs had it all over Fiji in the forwards but the Fijian backs were too big, fast and strong. Japan for some reason kept passing it out to the backline and never went anywhere. Also they just dropped it all the time they reached the 22m line. I think the Japs should have just kept the ball in the forwards all the time.

I thought the Japs tended to throw up the white flag a bit in the second half and were a bit disappointing. I actually quite like the USA to beat the Japs now in the Pearl Harbor replay. I think they have more competitive spirit if a bit less skill.

The wind probably did flatter Japan in the first half.

Tonga v NZ - leave me out. The All Blacks have been getting some criticism and might be in a take no prisoners mood.

Georgia are a bit tempting with 60 odd start. I quite like their big strong forwards. My worry with Georgia is they just kick the ball away as soon as they get it (or drop it). This is dangerous and could leave them open to a massacre. So I might leave tonight's games alone.

Some good ones on the weekend.

Samoa v England - I like Samoa with 51.50 start
France v Scotland - I like France 21.50 handicap but might not bet as I have already got a nice arb going there
Argentina v Ireland - very interesting game. Undecided there.

[jb]

35 - 0 to NZ at half time.

Most of the game has been played in rain but they reckon the worst is over..........they have just come out onto the feild & its pouring ????

I dont think 67.5 is enough start , reckon the Tongans will be gasping shortly ?

[cheesebeast]

NZ looked good there in bad conditions, for the first time in the tournament they showed their hand in the backline with some snazzy moves and I reckon they'll take a power of beating later in the tournament.

[jb]

Yeah that was a better effort , hard to get that many points in wet conditions.
The goalkicking was massive , i reckon they`ll be trying to slot Mcdonald into the main team , i wonder whos coming out ?

Anyway my records still intact....havnt tipped a winner .

Go the Georgians.

[cheesebeast]

I think they'll be tossing up between McDonald and Carter for goalkicker, my money would be on Carter finding a way into the team somehow. Most of those kicks tonight weren't too close to the touchline.

[cheesebeast]

Weather map says it's pissing down in Sydney? Go Georgia.....

[jb]

Geezz u guys are good judges at the rugby.

Half time & the Boks lead by 18 - the way these Georgians r playing the 60.5 start is looking sweet ?

[Seabiscuit]

I saw the first half of Georgia game (won't bother with the second). Good to see Georgia keeping the ball and not kicking it away. Again their forwards are doing a good job.

[cheesebeast]

It's not in the bag yet JB but the market was offering a damn good price on Georgia 10 minutes or so before half time, even now at 1-70 + it looks a bit generous towards the Georgians, although not impossible for SA to get another 43 points it would seem unlikely if they can go hard for another 40 minutes?

[cheesebeast]

Show me the money.:D :D :D

[Seabiscuit]

Did anyone see Australia win by 142 over Namibia today? I missed it.

Backing France to beat Scotland by 22+ at 1.90ish.

[Seabiscuit]

France 51 Scotland 9.

Impressive display by the French. They are a well balanced side. Good lineout, good forwards, backs and halves. Based on tonight's display they are a contender to win the whole thing.

Scotland didn't make too many mistakes for the first 50 minutes. The Scots just lack talent and were simply outclassed. They just caved in to the French pressure. They will be easy pickings in the quarters (most likely against Australia). Of course Scotland have to beat Fiji to make the quarters.

Wales beat Italy earlier. Both teams pretty useless.

[jb]

Yep , agree with your thoughts about France - liked them the first time i saw them but they lost it a bit against Japan but now back in favour....dangerous side because they have a solid all round game & there kicker is one of the best but he did miss one tonight that he should have got.......can imagine no problem getting thru to the semi against England.
Well done on the +22+ u guys are much better judges than me.

Naturally i saw the game against Nambia......what a blitz but hard to get a line on it because i think the Nambians had there B-team in ?

[jb]

I was keen on backing England & give a good start but not happy with the current odds.........giving 45.5 start & only paying $1.80 is not my cup of tea..

Thought Ireland-Argentina could be close & i`m not too sure which way to go.....Argentina at $3.4 appeals to me as they have got better since there openning run against Aussi.

Any thoughts guys for todays game ??

[cheesebeast]

I'm on Ireland and the Poms - I think if this Ireland match is tight like the Italy v Wales game was for a while yesterday it might be a good plan just to trade like a maniac?

Haven't seen much of Ireland this tournament but they were a decent team and no. 2 in 6 nations. Argentina a bit disappointing against Aus and perhaps better at home.

I'm betting England on the max spread - it seems the top 4 teams are hitting their straps and all seem to have put in strong performances recently. Jonny should be good for 20 points if he stays on long enough, and I reckon you should get the chance to trade out of that higher price at some stage of the match unless it's close all the way but England should be too big for the Samoans, might be wirth laying England for the first 20 minutes if it is tight initially and then swap sides?

[Seabiscuit]

I won't be betting on Ireland v Argentina. I have not seen Ireland play. The form for both looks good and the 6.50 handicap seems about right. It could be argued that Argentina are marginally better value on Betfair but I really don't want to have a go without having seen Ireland.

Ireland have the motivation of revenge as Argentina knocked them out last time. But Argentina must be fully motivated too as they must win this game to survive. Ireland get a second bite of the cherry against Australia.

Too hard to call.

I have bet on Samoa with 48.50 start at 1.90ish. I am going purely on the fact that I think Samoa have been playing quite well while I think England have been below par slightly and are perhaps in decline with all those Dads Army types. But I must admit I could have this one totally wrong. Based on the Zurich World Rankings which seem amazingly accurate England look a 55 or so point better side than Samoa so would be a good bet to cover 51.50 start. They might be due to fire today.

In the end I am going for Samoa and trusting my intuition from watching both sides last games. Samoa are quite good for a "lesser" team and England just a touch disappointing versus my expectations last time.

[jb]

Thx guys...

[cheesebeast]

I'm running around like a mad woman shitting at the moment - in my wisdom I decided to swap sides and bet on the Argies about 30 seconds before Ireland scored a try so got an awful price, am back in the money now just and happy to be on the Argies, this is apparently a 10 point win according to the commentators, sure looks like it and Argentina's forwards are looking strong.

[jb]

The Nitemare continues......

[Seabiscuit]

Saw the second half of Ireland v Argentina. Not that impressed with Ireland. I think Australia should be able to grind out a win against Ireland. Australia then get Scotland and an easy path to semis. France will probably beat Ireland even if Ireland beat the French earlier this year.

[jb]

Agree , dont think Aussis got much to worry about - even though Ireland beat France earlier its had to see them beating them on current form ??

This game looks a cracker - England has made 8 changes to the side that beat the Boks.......?

[Seabiscuit]

Great start Samoa. Probably all downhill from here though.

Don't Samoa kick the ball? I remember them kicking it against Georgia but they seem to have a no kicking policy tonight. Nice change for a rugby team.

[jb]

They must be dead - Wilkinson has missed from in front.

[cheesebeast]

Good call on Samoa Seabiscuit, I'm getting shafted.:mad: :mad:

[Seabiscuit]

What odds were Samoa to win the first half???

[cheesebeast]

Any Other Result to England/England for HalfTime/Fulltime market was matched at 40 - 65, or some England/England was layed at 1.01 so 100.

[jb]

Damm.......i`ll be filthy if Samoa get up as i`ve backed almost every roughie so far..

[cheesebeast]

U can still lay England at 1-04 to 1-05 in the win market if you believe in miracles - I'm in there as my get out strategy.:rolleyes:

[cheesebeast]

There's a new 24.5 spread market showing on the home page if you want a chance to get out of trouble, or get into more trouble.

[Seabiscuit]

England are starting to make mistakes under pressure. Not a good sign for them.

[cheesebeast]

England have eased out to second favourite in the Tournament Winner market while this match has been going on.

[Seabiscuit]

Maybe they should be 4th fav.

England have had to bring on their top forwards. That is a bit embarassing.

[Seabiscuit]

Now I am starting to feel bad for not backing Samoa outright. England are rattled and I am not sure they are going to get out if he kicks this as Samoa threaten to score another try.

I would have backed Samoa outright against South Africa but I felt England would win OK with their penalty pulling tactics and Jonny boy to kick the goals.

[Seabiscuit]

I backed France to win the whole thing yesterday after watching them beat Scotland. I never thought I would get a chance this early to make a trading profit. But I won't be doing this. I will stick with my inital plan which was to stick with the French until the final and then lay off if they make it that far.

I initially backed England at 3.25 before the tournament believing them to be Worlds No 1 blah blah blah. I was happy to sit on the bet until the final and not lay it off. But I was shocked with their performance against South Africa and laid this bet off at half time in the England v SA game. SA were matching them in all departments but goalkicking and SA are only 3rd best trinations team when playing in Australia. England are possibly even worth laying now. After tonight I am really starting to think what I suspected during the SA game. England are a good but not a great side that peaked between World Cups and is now on the downslide.

New Zealand are probably the best team but have a tough finals draw with 3 serious games. At least England have a softer run which kind of justifies their price. I think it is actually a fairly even contest between the top 4 or 5 teams when you look at the runs to the final and the abilities of the teams.

I am happy to stick with the mercurial French at the double figure odds to win the whole thing.

[jb]

What a massive game , it changes the betting for the whole tornament.

I`m glad to be on France & Aussi but wont be doing any trading until the semis.

After that i had to have a round of drinks on Samoa to win it outright at the 1000`s - based on that i`ll be on them to beat the Boks (just got $3.80)

[Seabiscuit]

jb I just had a look. You can get 5.20 on Samoa to beat SA at the moment on Betfair.

[Seabiscuit]

Someone has just snapped up all the money between 5 and 5.20 Samoa to beat SA.

[jb]

Thx Seabiscuit - yeah i ended up with a lot of that , i originally took $3.8 for who would win pool C without England .

As i keep saying i`m not a good judge at the rugger but after that game i reckon Sth Africa-Samoa is about 50/50 especially as the Boks are going thru positional changes (again)

What about tomorrow USA-Japan ?

[jb]

I`ve had a look at the teams for tonights game & the USA have made 2 changes from there normal team , Klerck moves from the bench into lock & Salesi Sika moves into the centres.

Japan has 4 changes from its last game Hasegawa moves back into fullback , Sonada is back in at half back, Kurihara moves from fullback to the wing & George Konia comes off the bench & moves onto centre.......unsure how the changes will effect the USA team but reckon the Japs have a slightly better team with Konia starting ?

The experts reckon the yanks will be too strong in the forwards but i suspect the Japs have more pace out wide ?

In the kicking department i guess there wouldnt be much diff between Hercus & Miller ?

Theres been 30 games so far & the favorites have won every game.......Any thoughts ?

[Seabiscuit]

Interesting game tonight. I have been quite impressed by aspects of both teams at least as far as minnows go.

According to the Zurich world rankings both teams are equally matched. If this is correct then you would have to go for Japan as they are outsiders in the betting.

Here is the form for the two teams prior to the World Cup.

FORM IN 2003
12 Apr: Spain 13-63 USA
27 Apr: USA 58-13 Spain
17 May: USA 69-27 Japan
18 Jun: Canada 11-16 USA
21 Jun: England XV 36-10 USA
28 Jun: England XV 43-6 USA
23 Aug: USA 8-42 Argentina
27 Aug: USA 35-20 Canada
30 Aug: USA 31-17 Uruguay


FORM IN 2003
17 May: USA 69-27 Japan
25 May: Japan 34-43 Russia
5 June: Japan 5-63 Australia A
8 June: Japan 15-66 Aus A
15 June: Japan 86-3 Korea
6 July: Japan 20-55 Eng XV

I am tipping USA. I think that Pearl Harbor still haunts the Americans and they will never really forgive the Japanese for that. For this reason USA will be specially motivated. You can see they were motivated in May when they thrashed the Japs 69-27. The thing that sticks out to me from the Japanese record is that they have lost every game this year bar one to Korea. But I think we can ignore that game (as we can ignore USA v Spain). Japan's defence seems suspect as they tend to let in a lot of points. I felt against Fiji they had glazed looks in their eyes the last 20 minutes and ran up the white flag. In this competition they have done well for 60 minutes in every game then faded badly last 20 minutes. I don't like that. USA on the other hand have won 4 from 4 this year against fellow minnows Uruguay, Canada and Japan. I thought they competed OK all the way against Scotland despite the scoreline. Japan have played two games against minnows (Russia and USA) and been beaten comfortably both times.

The betting on Betfair is actually a bit cramped if you want to back the USA. I have pulled off a nice arb but weighted it towards USA so that if they win by 13+ I win a fair amount but if they fail to do this I get my money back. But that is my tip - USA to win by 13+ inspired by thoughts of Pearl Harbor.

[jb]

Thx SB - based on that info the yanks look the tip but no chance i`d back them at $1.40.

Seems like the Japs do run out of puff late...interesting game i cant wait.

[Seabiscuit]

jb if you go off the Zurich world rankings the teams are equal. So Japan would be a good bet at the odds on offer. Some person called Ster has followed these ranking throughout the tournament on Betfait chat and claims 20 wins out of 26 on the even money spread.

So there is some case to be made for Japan.

I just don't like the way they haven't won a real game all year. Perhaps they don't know how to win. So I am tipping against the rankings.

[jb]

Geezz that game yesterday has changed the outright winners market , Englands drifted & all the other chances have shortened , i think everyones over-reacted & i`m now backing the Poms....go Wilko!

[jb]

Thx again SB , having a closer look theres quite a few changes to the Jap team & the team they have now is certainly much stronger which evens things up a bit...think i`ll go & have something on them.

[cheesebeast]

I'm with you seabiscuit - I reckon the Japs are only good for 60 minutes and then they hit the wall. That USA v Japan game in May in San Fransisco was interesting - Japs led 17-5 in the first half, 17-17 at halftime, and then USA put 40 points on the Japs in the second half. USA team only has 3 changes from this match whereas the Japs have 6 changes including their 10, Miller who directs their backline fairly well.

I can see something similar happening tonight - so am planning to be on Japan in the first 40 - 50 minutes, and will switch sides to the USA some time around then if this cunning plan unrolls as the match progresses. And this has been the pattern for Japan in their matches against France and Scotland, close for 60 minutes and then they've gone to pieces.

USA currently 3-35 in -16.5 point spread market, could be a tasty price in this spread some time later in the match.

Good luck!

http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/special_events/rwc/

[jb]

U blokes r better judges than me , so i dived in & took the Japan/USA half time/Full time score...........your prob right the Japs run out of puff late in the game....hope the`re in front at half time ?

Those weather sites are ex thx CB..

[jb]

U blokes are bad judges...the Japs are gone after 5 minuites.

[cheesebeast]

They're coming back, tried to lay US in win market when score was 14-0 at 1-04 but Japs scored a try, layed them at 1-10 so clawing back.

[jb]

The yanks are playing to there adv & they look too big & strong ?

[cheesebeast]

If the theory about the yanks pulling away in the last 20 or so minutes is on the mark the 1-80 in the -16.5 point spread market looks very attractive, that's where I'm going.

[Seabiscuit]

Yes I'm sticking with the USA after watching the first half. Japan's defence is poor. Their only hope is to get better than 50% possession but they are struggling in the lineouts.

[Seabiscuit]

Yes I would go with USA to cover 16.50 from here.

[Seabiscuit]

String of penalties to Japan early in second half and all the possession to Japan early in the second half meant the USA could not run away with it.

Good on the Americans for scoring in the last seconds though. I needed a 13 point margin to make money out of the game. When No 13 USA got the ball there at the end I knew I was in with a shot. He goes OK. Not sure about No 11 though.

[jb]

Yeah looked like the ref backed the japs ?

[Seabiscuit]

Tomorrow's game Georgia vs Uruguay. Another battle of the minnows. I have just backed Georgia at -10.50 to win this at 2.00 on Betfair.

Zurich Ranking have Georgia about a 6 or 7 point better team.

I have seen each of Georgia's games and I have liked what I have seen. I like their forwards strength. But I also I have liked the fact they seem to have improved with each game. Last game they run the ball more and got a try. I sense they are growing in confidence.

I saw Uruguay play South Africa. A bit hard to judge as they lost by 66. But I felt Georgia went a bit better against England than Uruguay did against SA. I might be selling the Uruguay team a bit short. But I am counting on Georgia having improved throughout this world cup so that they can outscore the Zurich World Ranking mark of 6 points. Poor old Uruguay copped a series of beltings in their games prior to the World Cup. Hopefully they have forgotten how to win like the Japs.

[jb]

Thx SB , i saw the last game when Georgia went down to the Boks & couldnt believe my eyes when they had them on the ropes for a while.....luved the commitment & heart they showed .

[imaufo]

Hey, this looks alright! :D

[Seabiscuit]

Where did this come from?

At least it frees up the Indian forum for all those Indian racing fanatics.

[Handy Harry]

By special request SB.

Lots of complaints from the Indian racing supporters so we had to do something.

[cheesebeast]

Now I can get some sleep, I've had a bunch of Hindu racing fanatics outside my place the last 10 days burning effigies of Jonny Wilkinson, singing Jonny takes it up the doodah, they're happy now.

[jb]

Our own sports thread , beautiful..

Anyway heres the preview for the tonites game from planet rugby....

Preview - Georgia v Uruguay 27/10/03
The Wooden Spoon in Pool C
Georgia and Uruguay, the Lelos and the Teros, meet at Aussie Stadium in Sydney on Tuesday evening. Both teams are looking forward to the match. After all the rugby field will be leveller for them this time in their Pool C match for up till now they have taken batterings from the other pool teams - England, Samoa and South Africa. Now they are fighting at their own weight.


It is certain that the battle will be eagerly engaged, both sides striving for a first victory at this year's Rugby World Cup - in Georgia's case a first-ever victory.

In 1999 Uruguay had their chance to win and beat Spain 27-15 at Galashiels. Of the players who won four years ago, Juan Menchaca, Alfonso Cardoso, Diego Aguirre, MartÃ*n Mendaro, Nicolás Grille, Juan Carlos Bado, Juan Alzueta, Pablo Lemoine, Diego Lamelas, Guillermo Storace, Rodrigo Sanchez and Nicolas Brignoni all return - 12 in all.

The battle between the two sets of forwards could be especially interesting as that is where both sides are at their best. It is there that the match could just be enthralling - a bit more enthralling, one hopes, than sumo wrestling.

But then sumo wrestling is enthralling for aficionados, and connoisseurs of forward-play may find this encounter more interesting than most.

Outside of the forwards, the Georgians may well have greater creativity and enthusiasm, playing as most of their players do in the flair-filled clubs of France. They are more likely to score tries than the Uruguayans.

The Uruguayans have made three changes to the side that lost to Samoa. Sebastian Aguirre comes in to fly-half to play inside his brother, Alfonso Cardoso comes back onto the wing and Hernán Ponte comes onto the flank. Lock Juan Carlos Bado has a throat problem and may well be replaced by Juan Miguel Alvarez.

The Georgians have made seven changes from the team, which battled bravely against the Springboks.

Irakli Giorgadze and Tedo Zibzibadze come into the centre and Brive-born Grégoire Yachvili, whose brother is in the French squad, comes off the bench to play on the flank.

Zurab Mchedlishvili comes into lock with gallant Ilia Zedginidze moving to No.8 where he is happier. Goderdzi Shvelidze comes in to tighthead with Avtandil Kopaliani shifting to tighthead. Malkhaz Urjukashvili on the wing.

Players to watch:

Georgia: Above all, the Georgian halfbacks are worth attention - Paliko Jimsheladze at fly-half with his productive boot and lively Irakli Modebadze, one of the many excellent scrum-halves at the World Cup.

Uruguay: One will inevitably watch forwards, especially tighthead Pablo Lemoine but above all their tireless, powerful No.8 Rodrigo Capo. Outside of their pack their most likely looking player is fullback Juan Menchaca.

Head to head: That will be about front row to front row - head to head, shoulder to shoulder, muscle and sinew to muscle and sinew, beef to beef.

Prediction: It's not an easy one to call but the Georgians look more likely top score points. Paliko Jimsheladze looks a bit more reliable a kicker than Diego Aguirre, and outside of that Irakli Machkhaneli and Malkhaz Urjukashvili look more likely to score tries.
Zurich Computer Prediction: Georgia by 11 points.
Planet Rugby Prediction: Georgia by 10 points.

The teams:

Georgia: 15 Irakli Machkhaneli, 14 Malkhaz Urjukashvili, 13 Tedo Zibzibadze, 12 Irakli Giorgadze, 11 Archil Kavtarashvili, 10 Paliko Jimsheladze, 9 Irakli Modebadze, 8 Ilia Zedginidze, 7 Grégoire Yachvili, 6 George Chkhaidze, 5 Sergo Gujaraidze, 4 Zurab Mchedlishvili, 3 Avtandil Kopaliani, 2 David Dadunashvili, 1 Goderdzi Shvelidze.
Replacements: 16 Akvsenti Giorgadze, 17 Soso Nikolaenko, 18 George Tsiklauri, 19 David Bolgashvili, 20 Merab Kvirikashvili, 21 Vasil Katsadze, 22 Besik Khamashuridze.

Uruguay: 15 Juan Menchaca, 14 Alfonso Cardoso, 13 Diego Aguirre, 12 MartÃ*n Mendaro, 11 Carlos Baldasarri, 10 Sebastian Aguirre, 9 Juan Campomar, 8 Rodrigo Capo, 7 Hernán Ponte, 6 Nicolás Grille, 5 Juan Alzueta, 4 Juan Carlos Bado, 3 Pablo Lemoine, 2 Diego Lamelas, 1 Rodrigo Sanchez.
Replacements: 16 Juan Andres Perez, 17 Eduardo Berruti, 18 Guillermo Storace, 19 Nicolas Brignoni, 20 Marcelo Gutierrez, 21 Bernardo Amarillo, 22 Joaquin Pastore.

Kick-off: Tuesday, 19.30 (GMT 08.30), Live in the UK on ITV2
Venue: Aussie Stadium, Sydney
Weather conditions: Scattered clouds, High 23°C, low 14°C
Referee: Andrew Cole (Australia)
Touch judges: Nigel Williams (Wales), Donal Courtney (Ireland)
TMO: Iain Ramage (Scotland)

[Seabiscuit]

There is a website called SportsPunter www.sportspunter.com which has tips and tipping comps etc.

Their Sportstron computer is predicting that Georgia has a 55% chance of winning, Uruguay a 44% chance of winning and the draw the rest.

But the computer then predicts Georgia to score 22 and Uruguay to score 24. Talk about having a bet eachway!

Anyway I have not followed their tips so far but might have a look at them over the remainder of the tournament. With every fav winning you did not need to be a genius up to this point anyway.

Anyway one thing is clear - Sportspunter's computer has Uruguay as a big Value bet in this match.

I am sticking with Georgia to win by 11+.

[jb]

I cant recall the Uruguay team playing much as they were blitzed every time but i was taken with the Georgians when they played the Boks , i`m a bad judge but on that game they`ll win by 30 ?

[jb]

Should`ve known i`d put the kiss of death on these poofters.

[Seabiscuit]

Looks like I've got this one wrong. The Uruguay team is playing a bit better than I thought. The Georgians though are complete and utter rubbish. I don't know what I ever saw in them. I am slapping a ban on all things Georgian as far as betting commodities go. I will not back Georgia in anything for at least the next 4 years.

The first half was so woeful I am not even going to watch the second.

The rest of this week is rubbish. Canada v Tonga, Namibia v Romania. No bets for me there.

France v USA is a bit better but I think no bets there either as you have no idea how the French will go with no pressure on them to perform.

No interesting betting games till at least the weekend.

[jb]

After 32 games the favorite finally got beat & i never made any money , oh well theres always tomorrow.

Canada - Tonga , yeah i might watch the horses for a change ?

[imaufo]

Can everyone please go to worldviews for a moment and vote for a poem???

[cheesebeast]

Here's the NZ team for the Wales game - this is close to the top team he'll be hoping to win the Cup with, Jack still injured will probably be there, difficult to tell what will happen if Umaga is available because I think Mitchell has decided he can't risk using Spencer as no. 1 golakicker. So McDonald is no. 1 goalkicker, I'm a big Carter fan so a bit disappointed but McDonald's OK.

15. Malili Muliaina (Auckland), 14. Doug Howlett (Auckland) 13. Leon MacDonald (Canterbury), 12. Aaron Mauger (Canterbury), 11. Joe Rokocoko (Auckland), 10. Carlos Spencer (Auckland, vice captain), 9. Justin Marshall (Canterbury), 8. Jerry Collins (Wellington), 7. Richard McCaw (Canterbury), 6. Reuben Thorne (Canterbury, captain), 5. Ali Williams (Auckland), 4. Brad Thorn (Canterbury), 3. Greg Somerville (Canterbury), 2. Keven Mealamu (Auckland), 1. Dave Hewett (Canterbury).

Reserves: 16. Mark Hammett (Canterbury), 17. Kees Meeuws (Auckland), 18. Rodney So'oialo (Wellington), 19. Marty Holah (Waikato) 20. Byron Kelleher (Otago), 21. Daniel Carter (Canterbury), 22. Ma'a Nonu (Wellington).

[jb]

See if i can put the kiss of death on again but i reckon the yanks are going to be hard to beat with 30 start against the French B-team ???

[cheesebeast]

Good on ya JB thanks for the kiss!

I'm on the froggies at -31.5 and -47.5, looking good at this stage.

[jb]

yeah always happy to help..

[Seabiscuit]

You cannot trust those French when there's nothing to play for.

I have backed Scotland for tomorrow at -12.0 at 2.15 with SportOdds (not sure what that means - does the bookie steal my money if they win by 12 or do I get my money back????). I just reckon Fiji are a bunch of individuals with poor teamwork. Against the Japs their big strong backs were skilful enough to win the game. But their forwards were poor. I think the Scots, despite being pretty ordinary, might have enough teamwork and discipline to wear down Fiji. Zurich Ranking have Scotland about a 17 point better team.

I think Australia should be able to grind out a win over Ireland. But none of the betting markets are very interesting here. I thought Ireland look ordinary against Argentina. But Australia have looked not too flash all year so not sure how much Australia might win by. I will give this game a miss.

Samoa v SA. Well SA should be able to graft out a win here with their forwards being too strong. But the funny thing is that based on points for/against throughout the tournament it is a pretty even matchup. As a result I have taken a bit of a gamble on Samoa to win outright at the $7+ available on Betfair. Worth a gamble at the odds.

[cheesebeast]

Good call JB u got it right in the end - didn't see the game as was busy working, I managed to catch a couple of the try replays seemed like a see-saw match. Got out with small profit but in hindsight wish I'd closed my positions at half-time.:mad: :mad:

I'm keen on the Aussies tomorrow, I think they'll have too much for the Irish, probably more likely to score a few tries, I think Ireland may have lost a few lengths since the 6N and not happy with O'Driscoll who has done nothing all tournament, he was awesome with the Lions but I reckon he started to believe all the press about how good he was, got the bleached blonde hair etc, I hope he's scoring more off the field than he is on!

Samoa must be a chance to beat SA, I'll be following u in there SB.

France have moved in from about 14 to 11 in the tournament win market this week, long may it continue.

[cheesebeast]

Sheesh that's a big price on Samoa for the outright win? 8-00 at the moment. If they perform like they did against England may be worth considering a bet Samoa/SA in half time/full time market - this market not open yet.

[cheesebeast]

Samoa look real tasty in the spread market too. +15.5 points that's just about stealing money?

[jb]

CB , without doubt i must be one of the worst gamblers on the planet , thought i was in for a certain loss & cut my action to reduce the pain & the yanks playing against the wind found a leg..

Anyway better put the kiss of death on a few teams tomorrow: I`m tippin a blitz for the Aussis.
Fiji are too errtaic ,Scotland will beat them easy in the scrums,lineouts,etc , i`m giving 11.5 start.
I`m going to have some of that $7 on the Samoans .

[jb]

Sometimes its best to bet early & sometimes not , in the case of Samoa it was better to wait as the price has blown out now to over $8 - i`ve got them underdogs but $8 must be value ? anyway sorry to put the kiss of death on them....

[cheesebeast]

Just woke up............

This Fiji v Scotland game's going to the wire - I did see the first half highlights, Rupeni's a beast!!! Scored two and could have had a couple more and he's still not race fit!

Haven't got a bet in this one but hope Fiji can get up. Market dead even at 2-00 for both teams. Have got a bet now that I checked that price, I'm on the Fijians.

[cheesebeast]

Samoa out to 9+ now insane! I guess the punters weren't too impressed with Samoa the other day against England B but I reckon they've got a decent enough team to compete with SA for 60 minutes + at least. Can only think the punters are discounting this form due to it being a second string England team but SA have had their own problems all season and can be beaten.

Some OK prices in the "To Score A Try" market - Faatau might be worth a punt here at >3-00?? - he played for the Hurricanes and goes pretty good.

GO SAMOA.

Should be a huge game - no more of this minnow bullshit, bring it on!:p :p

[jb]

I think your right CB , the public are overlooking Samoas last start....dunno why?

I hope they start good so i can trade out ?

[Seabiscuit]

Yes I have had a bit more on Samoa at $9 or so. Worth a go at the odds.

[cheesebeast]

Well maybe I'm insane?:o :o

Samoa playing like a pack of idiots and it looks like they ran their race the other day - they targeted the wrong match!

SA playing well.

[jb]

Geezz how bad did the Poms play the other day.....these Samoans couldnt beat anyone ?

[Seabiscuit]

Bad day today. 0 from 2. Scotland couldn't beat the start and Samoa drop the ball as soon as they get it.

SA's forwards too strong. The odds seemed nice but at least the Samoans could have given us a sight.

Have England drifted at all in the overall betting?

[jb]

Yep the odds on England just keep dropping , should be out to $3 soon ?

[jb]

Will retract my comments about not being able to beat anyone ...the`re going good now.

[jb]

Geezz the Aussis are struggling....i`ve underestimated these Irish they go real good........thought i`d just put the kiss of death on them..

[Seabiscuit]

NZ are a dud price. -51.5 at 1.85 all over the place. NZ beat Wales by 52 or so this year so the handicap mark looks about right for an evens bet. Even if it is only a Wales B team unless they roll over I cannot come into NZ at 1.85. Don't want to back Wales either. No bet game.

But I am interested to watch this game as it is probably NZ's toughest opposition yet. If NZ beat the handicap of 51.50 it shows they are going well and probably deserve to be favourites to win the whole thing.

[jb]

I`ve ben watching for 15mins & it looks to me like Wales might win.....couldnt happen could it ?

[cheesebeast]

Seems a bit scrappy but i reckon they'll get the 51 points by the end of 80. Will have a beer or ten now and watch but no bet.:eek:

[cheesebeast]

Well maybe they won't get the 51 points they're leaking tries! New midfield combination might be a bit suspect?

[jb]

They`re lucky they are playing the Wales B-team.....if it was the poms they`d be beat by 30..

[Seabiscuit]

The problem is the All Black's defence is poor. Wales are playing quite well with some great sidesteps and chips over the top.

The All Blacks are playing a bit like millionaires throwing it wide very early and not really building up through the forwards. Then not being committed in defence.

I have just put a small amount of money on South Africa to win the whole thing and make the final. I reckon Australia are playing poorly and there for the taking in the semi. But I would like to see NZ play better in the second half otherwise I might have to revise my opinion.

[jb]

SB , i`m like u , i`ve gone straight in & backed the Sth Africans........based on this game the kiwis will be going home next week ?

[Seabiscuit]

I backed NZ at 1.03 to win their pool before the tournament started. This morning I laid the bet off at 1.01. Thank god I did. The small amount of money I stood to win would not have been worth the stress.

Last week I thought England were overrated. After yesterday I thought Australia were overrated. Now NZ might be overrated???

Oh well, I have backed France and SA to win the whole thing or make the final. Pretty happy to stick with these for now.

[jb]

Certainly a strange world cup , all the big teams have had a bad day.

NZ clearly gone ordinary today , they have the ammo to blow them away so i guess its the tactics......therefore the coach is to blame ?

[Seabiscuit]

Yes all the big teams have had a bad day. Maybe I am a bad judge but I cannot see the justification for the price gap between the top 3 teams (England, NZ & Aust) and the next two teams (France and SA). (Ireland go OK but are hundreds. Wales and Scotland are thousands).

England and NZ probably still deserve favouritism but I don't know if they deserve their dominance in the betting. France still 11s SA still 25s. England and NZ about 2.80 or 2.90 and Aust 5.90 to 6.

My pesent view is that Australia are the weakest of the top 5 teams despite home town support. So their current 5.90 quote is unders. I might lay them in their semi final but no need to act now as I expect them to beat Scotland OK and price will shorten if SA beat NZ.

I am not tempted to back NZ or England at their short quotes.

[cheesebeast]

What price did u guys get on SA? Did u back them b4 tonight's match ended? I'd be interested in backing SA after that match tonight - surprisingly poor performance from NZ, defence was woeful close to the rucks, scrums etc, hard to know what to think of the game but sure throws the tournament wide open.

I doubt that SA can beat NZ though and I see they've opened a market for the 1/4 final and NZ @ -15.5 has already been matched at 1-99.

NZ's midfield looked second rate to me - a combination of Mauger being a bit rusty and perhaps McDonald being exposed out of his true position, and his goalkicking was a bit suspect too. Wales defended pretty well though.

I checked and it seemed the biggest price NZ got out to in the win market was 1-20!

I suspect most of the problem was in their heads and they went out there expecting a walk in the park?

[jb]

CB , i jumped on Sth Africa at $34 & $32 - the odds dropped down to around $26 but i see they are back out now to around $28-30.
I thought the Boks were in disaray with team positions but they certainly produced a good side the other day.

[Seabiscuit]

I got $34 to $36 on SA about 30 minutes into last night's game. I also got $16.50 SA to make the final.

I have since found SA have lost van Niekerk who was one of their better players the other day.

NZ should be clear favs against SA. For one thing SA don't have the flair some Welsh guys played with last night. SA will be more predictable and this will suit NZ. But I still think SA have maybe a 20-25% chance based on recent form. But the real steal I think is when SA play Australia in the semis if they beat NZ. For this game I think SA should be favs or evens at worst. SA seem to have improved since the Trinations while Australia seem to be going nowhere based on their Argentina and Ireland games (I am ignoring Nambia and Romania).

[Seabiscuit]

SA are better odds away from Betfair. Bookies Sportingbet are offering $34 still to win the whole thing. Now $28 to back on Betfair. I just backed SA with Sportingbet and laid off my bet on BF last night.

Funny thing is that an allup on SA winning the whole thing might pay better especially if they play England in the final.

It is possible SA's quarter final odds might drift later in the week same as Samoa vs SA.

[jb]

I started backing Sth Africa around half time...drat missed better value by around 10mins.

I would have thought the Boks would be better than 20-25% against NZ , the rugby commentators here in NZ say they have virtually a new team compared to the tri-nations....need to confirm this....geezz they were big & ugly against the poor little Samoans - agree that if they won against NZ they`d have to be fav vs Aussi.

Thx for the info SB , i`m going to check out all the other websites looking for better value..

[Seabiscuit]

Yes the SA team is new. But they have not had the same team for 20 odd games or so. They change it all the time. Van Niekerk will be a bad loss for them though. He was going well.

I think the best overall sports betting site apart from Betfair is SportOdds www.sportodds.com They consistently offer best odds by a bookie and sometimes give better than Betfair. I actually got 6.50 from them this morning on NZ to be eliminated in the quarter final (ie SA win). But they have suspended all their markets now and I think will shorten their odds.

Sportingbet offer standard odds www.sportingbet.com.au as do Sportsbet www.sportsbet.com.au Nothing special from these guys but occasionally a good value bet comes up.

I find IAS (www.betthe.net) tend to be the worst of the Australian internet bookies in terms of value on sports.

And the TABs are the absolute worst of the lot. But once in a while will offer something worthwhile.

Some of the English bookies will offer something good once in a while I hear.

[jb]

Thx SB , your a champ.
Yeah Van Niekirk is a big loss , i guess Rousou will cover for him he`s not bad....there other forwards looked awesome & a couple of the backs look superstars as well.

A lot of the teams dont seem to play 2 games the same , after playing a poor game some of the teams bounce back & play a blinder becuase of that i`m a little forgiving towards Aussi & NZ.

[jb]

Hard to believe Sth Africa are $5.6 against NZ....for mine thats overs but i`m a bad judge.

[cheesebeast]

If you want to get on the Yaapies in the belief that they'll win against NZ I reckon you're much better off with your money in the outright win market - surely the'll come in a heck of a long way from 28 - 30 if they do get past NZ? I don't think they will.

[Seabiscuit]

SA v NZ

If you are just trying to pick the winner everything points to NZ being favs here. Issue is who do you back at the odds if anyone. I have already backed SA to make the final and win the whole thing. I will be backing SA here so I can get an all up going on the SA v France final. I don't have a lot of confidence in SA beating the NZers. But I think they have improved recently and went toe to toe with England for 60 minutes before coming up just short after a charge down try. NZ showed a bad attitude against Wales which is a bit of a worry as they played like millionaires who did not want to do any hard yards. I tend to think though that SA's lack of backline flair will play into NZ's hands. Wales caused some problems due to some light stepping. SA robots will be more up NZ's alley. NZ should be too good. But at the odds I will be backing an SA win. More in hope than anything. Deep down I think the betting is about right and it is perhaps a no bet game. (The thought of 60-1 plus on SA v France final has got me in).

Australia v Scotland

Australia are struggling and I think they are the most overrated team in the comp. 5th best team in my view. (One reason I want SA to beat NZ as I think SA will be a good bet against Aust). But Scotland are woeful and have got nothing. Australia should beat them easily enough. If Australia cannot beat Scotland by 30 it will be a disappointment. In truth I think they need to win by 40 plus if they consider themselves contenders. After all France who are $10 won by over 40 and Fiji only just missed. At this stage I am not inclined to bet here although I think Australia will be motivated to put on a big score against the whipping boys (a la Romania and Namibia). Only issue is if they are good enough to do this. I am not sure so will stay out.

France v Ireland

I like France as a team and have backed them to win the whole thing. I think they are a better team than Ireland with a better all round game. But I don't like the odds on offer and if anything Ireland are the better value in the win market for this game. Ireland have won 3 of the last 8 games v France but were 4.50 last time I looked at Betfair. No bets here apart from an all up on SA v France final if SA are lucky enough to beat NZ.

England v Wales

England should beat Wales easily enough. Same as Australia v Scotland - if they don't win by 30 or so I would be worried (unless they ease up late). I might back England at a big start here.

[Seabiscuit]

SA currently 6.60 on BF - that is more like it. I am going to hold back and wait. Lots of heavy backing late for NZ last time. I hope it happens again and I get $7 or so SA.

[jb]

I do think the Kiwis will win but have to take some of that $6.6(already have taken less)

France & England have been the most backed teams in the last couple of days , pity they are in the same side of the draw ,from what i`ve seen they are the best 2 sides but after watching Ireland play last week i`d prob back them at odds of $5 to beat ANYONE....should be a good weekend of rugby.

[jb]

I see Giffin is out for the Aussis......he`s a key forward so its not good .

[Seabiscuit]

All Blacks won well enough on the score board 29-9. But I must say I did not think their performance was that of a champion team. South Africa were poorish dropping lots of ball in the first half and I thought they should have got further ahead earlier than they did given the glut of possession they had.

NZ should still be too good for Australia next week unless Aust show some amazing form turn around against Scotland later.

[Seabiscuit]

Possibly a dumb idea but I have backed Australia at 2.14 at 32.50 handicap. I think Australia will want to slaughter this second rate Scots team (before losing bravely to NZ next week).

[Seabiscuit]

I decided it was a dumb idea to back Australia at 2.14 as they have been relatively unimpressive. So I laid it back at 2.14 (effectively cancelled my bet). I still fancy Australia to beat this 32.50 mark but I just find Australia so unconvincing it is not worth putting money on. I am surprised that the odds on Australia are as low as 1.01.

[imaufo]

Whens the football over? Who is going to win?

[jb]

Another 2 weeks - unsure whos going to win its between England,NZ & France but if Aussi play good tonight they are back in it .

I wouldnt count these Scots out with a start , gutsy effort last week & this bloke can kick a goal.

[cheesebeast]

Aussies are being outplayed here and have drifted from 6 out to 8 to win the tournament.:o

I'm gonna lay them in the win market at 1-09 which is too short, Scotland would be a good thing if they could score some tries but they might get there through drop goals and penalties? Their lineout is just huge!

[Seabiscuit]

The Scots are doing great in gaining possession in the lineout but they are completely talentless bums with ball in hand and bumble about when they have the ball. But you might be right Cheesebeast - long range field goals might be the way to win it.

I have just laid Australia in the overall win market at 7.80 or so. Surely this has to be a good bet. Australia are worse than SA and they were 6.60 against NZ. Australia will have to beat NZ and then either England or France (sorry to the Irish and Welsh).
8 or so to lay has to be a steal. Who knows you might even get a pay out tonight.

[Seabiscuit]

Tuqiri playing well but sadly the others round him are not so good.

Thank god I cancelled my -32.50 bet on Aust.

[jb]

I just put a round of drinks on the Scots at a $1000 - one thing i learned from from Boks-Samoa game is check the height of your locks....i see NZ has the biggest in the cup.

Best bet going at the moment is laying these Aussis to win it outright , if they dont go today they`ll be off next week...almost a certainty ?

[cheesebeast]

You'd have to think so JB, very hard to see the Aussies winning the tournament the only thing they've got going for them is their defence which is pretty solid but I ithink NZ will find their way through it.

[Seabiscuit]

Funny thing is it seems Australia's price is back in so I got the timing wrong with my lay. But really, I cannot see how Australia deserve to be single figure odds. They beat Ireland by 1 pt and they are 80s. And France took Scotland apart and beat them by 42. Australia only won by 17. I think that is a fair reflection of the difference between Australia and France. But France are longer in the win market????? Oh well I suppose the French still have to beat Ireland.

The only reasons Australia can win is their defence is OK. But let's face it Argentina, Ireland and Scotland are not the big 5 countries. Their main hope is that NZ choke after failing in the last few World Cups.

If Australia win this World Cup it won't say much for the standard of the tournament.

[cheesebeast]

From the NZ Herald - pity he couldn't spell haka properly.

South Africa probably did not help their cause by not giving the harker the respect the All Blacks thinks it deserves. Instead of listening in silence while the war dance was performed, the Springboks sang the republic's national anthem.

"It was a team idea," van der Westhuizen said.

The last word went to Theinus Delport, the wing who plays for Gloucester. He was hit by a Collins tackle in the first half and didn't reappear for the second.

"It felt like," Delport said, "that I had run into a brick shit house." Indeed.

[jb]

On to todays games.....well i reckon England will win by 40 & are likely to score around 7 tries , which means 1 or 2 of there guys could be sitting close to the top on the tryscorers & Wilko could narrow the gap between him & Michalek in the pointscorers ?

I reckon France will win but agree with SB`s earlier preview & think Ireland are value (based on there game last week & earlier 6-nation form) which ever way it goes it`ll be a cracker.

I reckon it`ll be an England/NZ final but i could put the kiss on anything ?

[cheesebeast]

You're quite right about the disparity in the Aus and Ireland prices SB. They should be much closer and it's surprising the market hasn't realised how average this Aus team is.

Hope the Irish can get up today, hard match to line up but they must be in with some chance - they beat France by about 8 in the 6 Nations at home.

But I suspect France pay a lot less notice to 6N in World Cup year and they are deserved favourites, should be a cracker.

Ireland must be a tempting bet in the win market @ 70 - if they can get up today that will shorten considerably but I guess no-one would expect them to get past the Poms.

[cheesebeast]

I'm still looking good in the top try scorer market JB - the only one who can upset the applecart today is Will Greenwood, he's on 4 so needs a double to sneak to equal top. Looks like one of Howlett or Roko will win it for me, haven't decided yet whether or not to get some cover on Greenwood today.

[Seabiscuit]

I have backed England to win by 31+ at 1.90 or so. England are obviously a better team. According to their record this year they have played 5 games against this midpin teams (Wales, Scotland, Ireland, Italy etc) and won 4 from 5 by margins in the 30s. Should be ready to fire today and I think Wales will be happy to have scared the All Blacks and be happy to go home now with a good tale to tell the Joneses.

Not sure about Ireland's form. I did not think they looked good against Argentina and Australia last night made the form look bad. Conversely I thought France looked impressive against Scotland and did beat them by much further than Australia did. I just don't want to back the French at short odds. I will sit this one out. I am hoping for France to win as I will be happy to try them as underdogs versus the English.

Australia at $8 in the overall winner market is very strange. Against big 5 countries this year (Aust, NZ, SA, England, France) Aust has won 1 from 5. NZ has won 6 from 7. England has won 5 from 6. Points for and against from these games indicate Australia is about 15 to 20 points inferior to NZ and England. Aust's only win was against SA and SA's only win this year against a big 5 country was against Australia. People want only $4 for Aust v NZ. It seems everyone is factoring NZ choking. But with 1 win from 5 against good opposition it just looks like this Australian team does not have the ability to take advantage of much choking.

At this stage NZ and England look the top two teams with France the dark horse. Winner should come from these three. I rate Australia $25 or $30 shots with Ireland about their right odds at 80s or so.

[Seabiscuit]

I was going to leave the France game alone but just went to Betfair and the odds on France had drifted out from earlier in the week on the spread markets to what looked like reasonable odds on France. I am hoping the French will win easily enough on a dry surface.

So I have backed France to win by 13+ plus had a little on them to win 16+.

[cheesebeast]

Good judgement SB, France have come steaming in from about 11-00 post game to 6-60 now while Aus have eased a tad but should be more, at least they're in their rightful place of 4th on the line for the semis.

France are looking very powerful and have the team to win this tournament, they've got an awesome forward pack, their backs play a bit different to the French teams of old but they go OK, they do kick it a lot and seem to drop the ball frequently when passing goes beyond Marsh.

5.45 million quid matched in the tournament win market, awesome!

[cheesebeast]

Half time and France are up by 27 points.

You can bet the Frogs @ -29.5 @ 1-36 - what am I missing here? From what I've seen the french have pulled away strongly in the last twenty minutes so I reckon they'll win by 45+.

[Seabiscuit]

France are just toying with the poor Irish who seem broken spirited and are planning the end of campaign outing at the pub.

France perhaps getting a touch fancy. I just hope they don't get too lazy and lose their rhythm for the England game. Or even let the Irish score some consolation points and ruin my current spread bets.

[jb]

France looked brilliant early but i didnt like the way they finished off........maybe it was the fact they were up by so much i dunno ?

[Seabiscuit]

I wouldn't worry too much about the last 30 minutes jb. They did exactly the same thing about Scotland scoring most of their points in the first 50 minutes and then the game degenerated in the last 30 minutes. Good football teams often lose games which are meaningless. A leading rugby league coach in Australia sometimes says "It is hard to be grim when you don't have to be". The champion league team the Panthers played several games in the season just ended where they led by 30 and then only won by 10. Just be careful on the points spread.

The two teams I have backed so far to win the whole thing were France and SA. My SA bet was a loser but I was very happy with the French display today. They can beat England with some luck. The thing I like is they have a good all round game with no real weakness even if not the best in certain areas.

The team that really should be worrying after tonight's game as Cheesebeast alluded to is Australia. They struggled to beat both Ireland and Scotland and at the 50 minute mark of both games it was almost a tie. France on the other hand led by 30 plus at the 50 minute mark of both games and had the matches shot to bits. Tonight's game just highlighted how far below the mark Australia has been and how hard it will be to turn it round in a week. Australia have been totally underwhelming all year.

I look forward to seeing England play now. No excuses for England if they fail to impress tonight. France v England should be a good game. I hope England do win well to keep the odds on France healthy next week.

[jb]

Yep , could v-well be right...looking forward to watching England play , they need to be impressive .

[Seabiscuit]

How did Wales not score???? That will hurt them. That try would have got England thinking and got Wales into the game.

[Seabiscuit]

My bet on England by 31+ is looking sick. Only hope is for Wales to tire badly in the second half.

England have not looked impressive in any game. They beat Uruguay by a million but Uruguay celebrated after the Georgia game like they won the World Cup and did not try against England.

I hate England's penalty pulling tactics where they rely on Wilkinson to pot penalties and field goals.

England have looked all tournament like a team of old men who peaked between World Cups. They better do something soon.

[Seabiscuit]

Brilliant try to Wales!!!!

I am giving up on my bet and going for Wales. I would love to see England eliminated by 1000-1 shots in this game.

[jb]

As soon as i said they`d win by 40 everyone should`ve known they were off...

[Seabiscuit]

Second try to Wales. NZ's form looks good now.

I would be getting a touch worried if I were an English supporter. England aren't offering much in attack.

[Seabiscuit]

Well I lost my bet on England to beat Wales by 31+.

I suppose it is possible Wales played above themselves in those last two games as NZ and England both went similarly. To give the Welsh credit they have some nice light stepping backs.

But I must say I saw the Welsh also play Italy and was not overly impressed.

It is becoming clearer by the day there is no current champion team in world rugby.

I am very happy to back the French to beat England next week. Only problem the odds won't be so good but I still expect quite healthy odds against on France. England have not looked good all tournament.

I still rate Australia the 4th best team though.

[Seabiscuit]

At this stage it looks straight forward.

NZ look much too good for Aust and should win easily. Even though current price is short it still looks a good bet.

On current form I do consider France should be favs against England. You will get odds against so this looks a good bet here.

[jb]

Well nothings changed for me , my forms still lousy..

Wasn`t impressed with England & now think the French game is close to 50/50 - Wilko doesnt look superman anymore , actually i`d prefer Michalek in my dream team.

Wales were lucky to beat Tonga so the forms confusing....they`ve improved 50 points in the last fortnight.

Yes England offer more in defence than attack & they play close to being off side when defending ?

I guess after this weeks games NZ deserves to be favorite ?

[jb]

SB , after thinking about it i`d also have to rate the French favorites on recent form.

I hate betting against home side teams but on recent form you`d think NZ would win easy.

[Seabiscuit]

I wonder what influence wet weather has on some Northern hemisphere teams.

Ireland beat France 15-12 this year but I read a report on the game and the weather was atrocious. Rain bucketing down all day and no tries scored.

England just play the penalty pulling game where they don't seem to interested in scoring tries but just get it into the opposition half, pull the penalty and get the 3 and start again. A strategy more suited to wet tracks.

France seem to target World Cups. But I also suspect the dry tracks suit them better as they make a serious attempt to move the ball around and score tries.

I hope England don't win the WC with their tactics.

[Seabiscuit]

Latest Odds to Back on Betfair Overall Winner Market

2.22 NZ
3.55 England
5.70 France
10.0 Australia

NZ and France keep tightening. England and Australia keep drifting. This is line with general opinion based on weekend games.

[Seabiscuit]

www.sportspunter.com has some super computer that churns out free tips. The tips seem change during the week as they based on the tips people put in or something (and the best tipsters in the comp etc). Their early ratings for the semi final chances are:

NZ 89.79%
Aust 9.36%
Draw 0.86%

France 60.32%
England 38.74%
Draw 0.94%

Based on currently available odds they rate NZ and France as value.

Like I said these ratings might change a fair bit during the week but they look pretty reasonable to me and I agree with these assessments pretty much.

[Seabiscuit]

I saw this on Betfair chat and got a giggle out of it. Up until now some of the staunch English supporters on Betfair chat have been super confident about taking the cup. But now that their team just doesn't seem to be lifting they are starting to fear it is all about to go pear shaped for them yet again. Oh well they did bag the soccer world cup in 1966 at least. I like the way that the Australian media is blamed for England's demise. I hope that the winning captain from NZ or France thanks the Aussie media in their World Cup victory speech.

Posted by : The Muzzer 10 Nov 02:46

why do the kiwis and aussies etc constantly call england arrogant ?? IMO because we dont rise to the constant whinging and moaning criticsm from the media down under and ex players from southern hemisphere teams. what is pathetic is the vitriolic aussie media war which has been raged against england throughout the whole world cup to try and unsettle the team (worked so far) which has lead to various muppets coming onto this forum and regurgitating the rubbish that they so williingly read. i had the dis pleasure of traveling around much of aus for a whole year and found there was an incredible amount of racism/xenophobia in the country combined with proverbial chip on both shoulders when it came to the "poms". it will give me great pleasure to see them go out in the semis to NZ and then either england or france will claim the crown in the final.

[Handy Harry]

Don't play in the House

November 7, 2003

Screening the Rugby World Cup finals live at the Opera House has given Roy Slaven a brilliant idea.

"Let's face it - rugby would like to see itself as a cultural thing," says Roy, who will be calling the World Cup final there on November 22 together with colleague HG Nelson.

"Certainly there is something nice about opening up the Opera House to rugby. If they were to rebadge it from being an opera house to a house of sport, I think you'd get a lot more people there. They wouldn't have as much difficulty selling subscriptions to the opera.

"I love La Boheme, don't get me wrong, it's a marvellous bit of work - but we've seen it before. The thing about rugby matches ... is that at least you think you're looking at something new, whereas we all know what's going to happen at the end of La Boheme."

http://www.smh.com.au/ffxImage/urlpicture_id_1068013337056_2003/11/07/300royhg.jpg


HG can picture the Opera House taking off as a venue for other world sporting events.

"I'd love to see the Opera House bid for, say, the world table tennis tournament," he says. "I can see darts going gang-busters there. It wouldn't surprise me to see billiards and all that sort of stuff, which is often done inside in these very palatial circumstances.

"For too long it's been the home of people who are only interested in ballet and Madame Butterfly. We've got to crack that on the head."

Rugby on the House, a free event on the Opera House forecourt, takes place on each of the final four big nights in the World Cup campaign. Each program kicks off at 6.30pm, with a panel of personalities dissecting the latest World Cup news and gossip, before the game is broadcast on the big screen at 8pm.

Effie (Mary Coustas) hosts the first panel at the Opera House on November 15, the night of the first semi-final. James O'Loghlin hosts the second semi-final on November 16, while Tony Squires tackles the third-place play-off on November 20.

Meanwhile, Roy and HG can't wait for the big one on November 22 - even if they won't be in the thick of it at Telstra Stadium.

"I think the atmosphere at the Opera House is just going to be brilliant," says HG. "When you remember these things - the travelling back from the grand old girl out there at Homebush, the easy access to the Rocks area and, you know, keeping those people in the Toaster awake a little bit longer than normal - these are very, very different experiences.

"I mean, who thought that when Utzon threw the thing in the air all those years ago, that 30 years on, the Rugby World Cup would be the thing that celebrated the magnificence of the Opera House?"

The Opera House won't be the only place for free entertainment and big-screen action during the World Cup. Using the 2000 Olympic Games as a model, the city will create party zones in The Rocks, Darling Harbour, Sydney Olympic Park, Manly, Bellevue Hill and Eastwood.

A giant screen will be suspended over George Street at the Rocks for the final four matches, with bands such as Wicked Beat Sound System and the Whitlams playing in First Fleet Park after each match.

Tumbalong Park at Darling Harbour will also feature a big screen and entertainment from the likes of Marcia Hines, the Proclaimers and New Zealand's yodelling Topp Twins.

Anthony Bastic, the creative director of World Cup festivities and the programmer of Sydney's live sites during the 2000 Games, says: "The Olympics taught me that people really want to celebrate.

"I think people almost expect it now. They think, 'Oh great, there's a big match on. Where's the party?'"


This story was found at: http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/11/06/1068013334252.html

[Seabiscuit]

Australia v NZ

Have to have NZ here. Can still get 1.30 about NZ with NSW TAB. Looks good odds. If you go through all of Australia's 2003 form virtually none of it is good enough to win a WC semi final. They have won only 1 from 5 against the big 5 nations (against SA who also had a bad year). Australia is the only big 5 nation to lose to SA this year. Australia's WC form has looked poor and not up to winning a WC semi final. They beat Argentina, Ireland and Scotland all unimpressively. France seem to have 20 to 25 points on Australia looking at Ireland and Scotland matches.

Conversely, NZ have won almost all their games including games against big 5 nations. Only loss was to England. But even that should be good enough to win. NZ's only subpar performance was against Wales. Rest of their form looks too good for Australia.

NZ should win unless they choke (don't like the way the captain seems to pay the Aust respect and talk about the 1999 semifinal). NZ have not looked bulletproof but should be good enough. 1.30 looks good odds.

England v France

France look good. England look bad although changes might help. But France just look good all over the park and have heaps of firepower. They can hurt you from anywhere. England look tired and old and negative. The English rugby team is a good advertisement for rugby league. I like France a lot and think they can lift the trophy if they make the final. I hate England and their penalty pulling tactics. I want to see Clive Woodward lose and have to explain his failure to the English people and the rest of the world. I hope France win by 40+. In the last 15 minutes of play I hope to see happy Frenchies dancing on the graves of broken spirited Englishmen as they put on a rugby clinic.

France at 2.50ish look a good bet. I have even had a little something on them to win by 13+ on Betfair.

A NZ v France final would be a good game. A boring 3rd v 4th playoff between Australia and England in front of an empty stadium is what both teams deserve. Imagine if the English penalty pullers lost that game and ran 4th after thinking they had the World Cup parcelled up after their Southern Hemisphere triumphs earlier this year.

[Seabiscuit]

The www.sportspunter.com site super computer latest rated chances are as follows:

New Zealand 72.65%
Australia 26.88%
Draw 0.46%

France 63.53%
England 35.82%
Draw 0.65%

So the France v England game is similar to earlier in the week. The computer still tips France as a big value tip at the odds.

But the NZ v Aust game has seen a swing away from NZ so that they are no longer rated a value bet - instead Aust is. But NZ are only rated marginally bad value.