View Full Version : HKJC TURNOVER 02/03 ???
retail sales down 7.70% YoY to june. truly a mind boggling number -- i cannot remember such a horrific economic # anywhere in my life.
unless the banning of betting overseas will divert soccer action going to macau slots back to the HKJC the opening t/over figures rate to be a nightmare.
retail sales down 7.70% YoY to june. truly a mind boggling number -- i cannot remember such a horrific economic # anywhere in my life.
I've never seen so much gloom in HK. In spite of the downturn in the last few years, most of my friends didn't seem to be that much affected, or at least they had managed to up an appearance that they weren't affected. Not anymore. Business is extraordinary difficult. To stay competitive, people are getting more and more things done in China. Many people have become couriers inadvertently -- pick up orders in HK, place the orders in China and then go over the border to pick up the goods so they can deliver them in HK. And we're not talking about big ticket items but mundane things where the savings may be significant in percentage terms but really not that huge. So you can see how difficult the situation has become.
Also, a few days ago I read about a shopping mall in a factory area being put up for sale for an extraordinarily low price. The reason for the low price is that the factories are empty since they have all been moved to China already. Since no one works in the area any more, no one goes to the shopping mall and it has become a ghost mall.
It seems that gradually HK is being hollowed out and everything sucked into China. I dare not imagine what HK will be like a few years down the road.
Marc Faber predicted this yrs ago and i have always been an acolyte. however the 7.7% # is faster downhill than i would ever have imagined possible.
it would seem to me to have major implications for property prices and hence budget deficits -- assuming the gov't does not release more property in order to protect the major property owners.
It looks like a dying city to me too.
I hear many import export business now go straight to shenzen etc, just a few mils away, to reduce shipping and handling costs by half. I guess this is also true for many other businesses as china becomes more accessible and reliable.
Tourism in HK is a joke! The place is quite unenjoyable for most poeple i guess - many of the visitors i have wouldnt come back many due to the supressing combination of crowding, climate and pollution. Shopping just doesnt do it when the products are sold in dodgy shops at the same price as most other places in the region. And what else is there to do that cant be done in nicer surrounding everywhere else??
I guess that leaves the financial industries which will also go down hill if the core bussiness move too i guess and as the chinese banking system becomes more regulated etc.
In all the articles i have read about the impending gloom i dont think ive read one that had any sort of good news in the long term.
>> just another chinese city!! Maybe but i cant imagine that china will sort out its current probelms all that quickly to render HK useless. I see china booming for a while and then being totally strangled by widespread corruption that will leave in in a worse state than indonesia is now.
Re Marc Faber, I read his "Riding the Millennial Storm" a few years ago. From what I remember, he said that many once great cities along the prosperous Silk Road have long been forgotten once the trade routes changed from land to sea. Unfortunately, the modern Silk Road with Hong Kong being one of its hubs is also gradually shifting. The decline of HK may be a long drawn out process but surely it's not a pleasant one.
we seem to have digressed from my original point and it is a very depressing prospect.
>> just another chinese city!! Maybe but i cant imagine that china will sort out its current probelms all that quickly to render HK useless. I see china booming for a while and then being totally strangled by widespread corruption that will leave in in a worse state than indonesia is now.
scarper why was the last bit tucked on at the end. i would certainly not wish to do ANY business in china due to the corruption and it seems the central gov't just cannot control the provinces. i would imagine the upheavals in russia are a better analogy than indonesia to china's fate if it cannot bring the corruption under control.
in a worst case scenario any upheavals could spred to HK.
As i see it HK's decline os from mainland (and to a lesser extend regional) competion in it key business area's. SO while chinas booming HK will become less and less of a standout point of entry to china. But it will once again become a stand out point of entry if chinas corruption is not controlled....maybe!
indonesia russia....USA, wherever it doesnt matter, corruption ruins economies as far as i can workout and it seem that china is upto its neck in it.
I would say China isn't just up to its neck in it...ha ha...I would say that corruption IS the Chinese economy.
As for Hong Kong and the tourist trade...I find it unbelievable that all they want to do is to destroy anything that could be regarded as a tourist attraction. I read in the SCMP a few months ago how they were all set to tear down an 800 year old Buddhist monastry for yet another " "modern" building. Most countries would love to have something special like that to show to the world. Another report centered around attempts to build the worlsds biggest billboard alongside the worlds biggest Buddhist statue. Not to mention building plans in place ( government departments etc) to be built on about the only open space around the harbour area.
I read an article in a local magazine today which says that the values of certain residential properties have dropped from a high of over $10,000/sq. ft in 1997 to the current low of $2,000/sq. ft. That's a drop of 80% in 5 years. Maybe the 80% drop is extreme but a 50% drop is not uncommon. Buying a flat represents a very major investment to most people in HK. So one can see the suffering that has been caused by the collapse in property values. Under such circumstances, it's hard to see how the HKJC can halt the slide in turnover.
cheesebeast
09-08-2002, 00:47
Does the JC have any cunning plans or strategies to reduce the slide in turnover?
Perhaps they could increase the distribution of their betting outlets, I always find them terribly crowded and not too easy to place bets, how about getting some ticketing machines in 711 shops?
Their best opportunity would be to go to the global market, embrace the internet, it's a part of our lives and won't go away, the longer they regard the internet and the international market as some dark force of evil, the longer they will experience a decrease in turnover.
Schreck said racing must lift its punter appeal. How?
"Take-outs obviously have to be carefully looked at," he said. "If we are honest we all know that a punter has a better chance in a casino because the take-out is lower. Lowering take-outs will, without a doubt, make a major difference to our sport."
Is that enough? "We have to let them [punters] walk onto our tracks thinking they have a chance of walking out in front," he said. "The worst attitude you can have is to walk onto a racetrack and say, 'I have $200 to lose'. People who say that are losers before their first bet.
"Racing must give them every tool to win. The lower the tax, the more assistance we are giving them." Schreck said racing must lift its punter appeal. How?"
from post in Australian forum!!
yeah - take outs are what its all about. look at at betfair! lower take means more punters and higher turnover - but i imagine finding the point at which revenues are maximized is quite difficult!
Hobbes - the Schreck stuff is from a Sydney Morning Herald article during the last week.
As for HK, the future looks much the same as the recent past and present. Impossible to see Hong Kong ever coming back. It built its wealth on being a conduit for business into a closed China - that conduit is no longer required. Property values were artifically ramped up for 30 years, so it is no surprise that they are not worth a handful of snot now that HK money has dried up and they are back in a more competitive environment.
HKJC is crazy not to embrace internet. All this hypocritical good neighbour shit they carry on with - they still have plenty of customers betting into their pools from overseas but don't want money bet from HK into o/s pools! Since when did any kind of good neighbour policy work in the commercial world unless it was a price-fix conspiracy?
If Betfair extends its operations to HK racing this season, could be quite interesting. Illegal or not, people will bet with Betfair. Now it has a strategic alliance with Stanley Ho in the region and, let's face it, Stanley is hardly going to shed a tear for HKJC after what they did to Macau.Even if Betfair holds off - and can't imagine it will since it is now operating on US racing every day and it's all cream - talk that Mark Read may set up a betting exchange and Mark has always had a horn Louis Armstrong couldn't blow when it comes to HK racing - esp if no wagering risk for him!
who really cares if the HKJC is suffering for a low turnover. us punters have suffered enough from the poor management decisions they make. just because they lose a couple of millions they start pushing the panic button asking the gov. for assistance in banning all online betting etc. what else do they want? looks like if football betting is legalised they'll probably get the contract for that too. everything is spoon fed to this organisation.
look at punter comfort. if you goto the track it's so ordinary, plain, dirty and crowded. its practically impossible to place bets. while the members live it up with pretty PR girls.
if you use they're telebet service you'll be lucky to get through 10 mins before the race.
if you bet on horses and the jockey messes up the stewards do nothing and make wierd decisions. i.e. shane dye on orlando flyer or the de integro and exceptional shambles. the icac does nothing about this but busts fradd for a ride which the stewards didnt even bother to look into. what is that???
the hkjc has had its day in the sun. hk racing journalist ken martinus says the same thing. punters are constantly cheated, people just get fed up.
p.s. another example is they multi-million expansion of happy valley and getting rid of the equitrack so that it would allow 14 runners, less casualties and a world class racing track. but we all know the result of that... and we still get exicting class 6 races every wed!!
[ August 12, 2002, 12:59 AM: Message edited by: shadey ]
I beg forgiveness - I see that Schreck's stuff was from a talk at Cairns this week past - much of which was communicated by him then to the SMH.
looks like if football betting is legalised they'll probably get the contract for that too.
A few days ago, an article in a local paper quoting reliable sources said that football betting will be legalised some time in May next year and that HKJC will be running it.
was there ever any doubt the HKJC would be running it if same was legalised. as the latter had been looking increasingly likely thank goodness it will not be until next may.
next question is how much deduction the gov't and JC will want for themselves ?? surely not more than 5% between them but then their overall revenue is likely to fall as betting on racing is likely to decline significantly.
oh what a dilema!!!!
yes, what a dilema. it seems if they do legalize football gambling, and like hobees implies, for it to be sucessful the combinded take will have to be less than 5%, the racing turnover could well suffer greatly due to the reletively high and unattractive tax levels (amongst other reason). Will this, and continued pressure from overseas operations, almost force them to reduce the racing tax rates??
HKJC is crazy not to embrace internet. All this hypocritical good neighbour shit they carry on with - they still have plenty of customers betting into their pools from overseas but don't want money bet from HK into o/s pools!
If the JC do offer thier product world wide and, to avoid enforcing double standards, allow HK residents to bet overseas, im sure the HK pools would drop dramtically due to betfair or bookies offering hk markets with much lower vig, as HK's current punters sensibly get better prices elsewhere. So the HKJC would first have to lower its tax rate to be very competetive and im sure that would result lower total revenues at this time. in several years time im sure that wont be the case though as the HKJC will eventually have to be taxed on profits like any other business, to keep its current punters.
[ August 12, 2002, 04:37 PM: Message edited by: Scarper ]
see my prophetic post on 7/08/02.
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