View Full Version : Sha Tin 29 March 2003
Looks a very ordinary meeting on paper. I don't like anything and probably won't have a bet. Could be a good day to start laying things on betfair.
I've found two to lay - Calvados and Triumphant Delight.
Vincent, i wont be laying those as the divvies are too big but good luck anyway - see u on betfair ?
Aussie trainer has the luck of the draw as he seeks to add more silverware to his trophy cabinet
Clint Hutchison
Derby winning trainer David Hayes has his yard in cracking form at present and the Australian can add more silverware to the cabinet by landing the Victoria Racing Club Trophy this afternoon with Celestial Magic.
The progressive son of Fraar was gallant in defeat on his last outing over the dirt mile when he had to work a shade too hard in order to get to the lead.
The major bonus today is that Gerald Mosse will have an easier time getting to the lead from gate one, and Celestial Magic should stay in front as there are not too many in the field who will apply much pressure. The step up to 1,800 metres on the all-weather track should also not pose any major problems.
http://racing.scmp.com/english/images/news/cent29032003.jpg
PAYDIRT: David Hayes' Celestial Magic should atone for his last-start defeat, particularly as he has drawn favourably in gate one, from where Gerald Mosse can steer him into the lead. Photo: Kenneth Chan
The form horse of the race has to be Konrad The Great, who has won three of his last four starts. One of those victories came over the dirt mile where he defied the usual trend by powering home from well back in the field to grab victory close home.
The wide gate is not a major concern as he is likely to settle in a rearward position, and given how he excels on this surface he must rate a top chance.
Millennium Spirit has a win and a minor placing from four attempts over the course and distance and warrants respect. Although his recent form has been a shade disappointing, he is well weighted in this contest and can surprise.
Comme D'Habitude had his first start for Dennis Yip on his last start when finishing fourth over the dirt mile to Arrogance. It was a solid enough effort to give him claims to make the frame over this longer journey.
A good value chance that must be kept safe is Noble Boy, who impressed in a recent dirt trial over 1,050 metres. His recent work has definitely picked up and earlier in the season he performed admirably over the dirt mile.
On that occasion, a mishap at the start cost him several lengths and with the saddle having moved back, jockey Rodney Quinn was placed in a difficult situation. Noble Boy still managed to rattle home and finish seventh and based on that effort must be kept on the safe side.
Floral King caught the eye on his latest outing when flashing home to finish fourth behind Loyal Devotion over the dirt mile. It was clearly his best performance to date and one would assume that the step up in trip would be beneficial.
Mr Basketball has been uncharacteristically well beaten on his last couple of outings on the all-weather and the handicapper may have the measure of him now.
However, Mr Basketball should enjoy the run of the race from gate three and as he is competitively weighted could sneak into the frame.
Reward only finished a length behind Celestial Magic over the dirt mile on his last start and based on that effort is capable of making the frame. He will also settle in a prominent position and will have every chance to reverse the form.
The depth of the field does fall away from there with several runners having their first start on the dirt, including One More Round, Universal Charger and Nasa Pearl.
One More Round looked a promising individual at the start of this term but on his most recent start was well beaten behind Bear Supremo. He may be looking for a break now and based on his bloodlines there is no reason to suggest he should excel on the surface.
Much the same can be said for Universal Charger, who may have reached his limit in the handicap. Nasa Pearl has not really shown enough promise to rate a chance based on his three local starts.
Danriva has failed to make the frame from two attempts on the all-weather and there is no reason to suggest he can today, while Mendoza clearly does not handle the surface having failed to come close in six attempts.
By the sounds of things Noble boy could be a live chance today on the dirt and shold be good value. He won several races on the trot last season and won with Frankie Dettori on board one night.
Likes the dirt.
Mr Basketball always seems to be in the market but Im always keen to lay him.
Fat Bastard
29-03-2003, 07:28
Noble Boy is going like a busted sneaker and can't win. In fact, I'll go down on the NZ Prime Minister if he runs a place!
the mad mafoo
29-03-2003, 07:40
The Tall Poppy special today is MORPHINE in the last. (Or as some might say, Morpheous).
No doubt Morphine had a very good run last time. However, Morphine is a (PP) Private Purchase horse. Maybe someone can explain to us why this type of horses have the nasty habit of running a mediocre or even poor 2nd race. Even Derby winner Elegant Fashion, after an impressive debut win, finished 6th in its 2nd race. Morphine may yet buck the trend but I won't touch him if he remains a shortie.
cheesebeast
29-03-2003, 10:31
Fat Bastard Noble Boy is going like a busted sneaker and can't win. In fact, I'll go down on the NZ Prime Minister if he runs a place!
Shit I hope Noble Boy wins 'cos I'd love to see that, but not sure that the NZ Prime Minister would approve, it's a fair chance she bats for the other team so perhaps a job for Wanchai Wendy.
Yeah - she's a peach ! Everyone's entitled to be ugly, but she abuses the privilege.
Barfold Hero is my special today. any name with bar in it gets my vote. And my lay of the day is the bookies' favourite Smiley Win.
Try laying my selections:
I am tipping all horse #1 to win.
Ouch! Our dear Helen is married, you know ... :)
Tosser's tips for today
griffins - who cares
R2 - c5 1000 - who cares, altho' I reckon Smiley Win will probably run on for 2nd again
R3 - you'd think Waialae Win from the draw if he doesn't get too far back
R4 is so open I'm going to do the usual trick of laying the favs and backing the overs. Will work one day. The Greatest for an upset.
R5 - hate races with first starters paying not much. I'll lay the bloody thing.
R6 - Perpetual Pleasure deserves a bit of luck after his last run. Will be taking on Smart Chief and Exultation
R7 - Fast Track or Telecom Babe for me. Can't see Strategus getting a run from the draw, but sometimes they find a way.
R8 - Celestial Magic looks tough, so I won't be betting
R9 - another open affair, like Little Elephant and Flying Success, and I'll lay Tamar and Miracles - possibly also Corajoso and Sensible Way if they shorten. Gee - laying 4 horses - is that wise?
R10 - can see this being a dawdle which may give it to Morpheus, depending on what the track is doing.
G'luck everybody
The major bonus today is that Gerald Mosse will have an easier time getting to the lead from gate one, and Celestial Magic should stay in front as there are not too many in the field who will apply much pressure.
Sometimes I wonder if Clint watches the same horses as I do? Hell, Reward and Mendoza are noted on-the-pace runners and if Celestial Magic gets a soft lead I'll go down on the NZ PM too.
Geez theres some bad judges around - apart from Vincents roughies i`ll be laying everything mentioned...see yuh`s all on BF.
Theres been a couple of horses that have been good to me but that Smart Chiefs clearly the best.
Yup, and the good thing is he ran 4th so will probably be unders next start as well :)
cheesebeast
29-03-2003, 15:43
Tosser
Member
Sometimes I wonder if Clint watches the same horses as I do? Hell, Reward and Mendoza are noted on-the-pace runners and if Celestial Magic gets a soft lead I'll go down on the NZ PM too.
Shall I get on the blower to Helen and tell her the good news, Tosser, or does that not constitute a soft lead?
Can I watch???
Ha ha. Ive only layed one horse tonight ( Grandioso) ..went to lay Mr Basketball for qa bit but the price drifted out and I never got my bet on.
Looks like a few people will be enjoying the lovely new Zealand scenery???
http://www.primeminister.govt.nz/images/helen-clark.gif
:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
Sectionals - 13.6 22.5 24.1 24.3 24.1
Ummm, 36.1 for the first 600m and 60.2 for the first km is just under a second quicker than usual. If you think that's a soft lead then perhaps you need to go down on Helen :p
Im not really playing tonight...but there seem to be a lot of big priced winners getting up! IS there rain about or something?
cheesebeast
29-03-2003, 16:14
Rather you than me Tosser, I'm not man enough for that job.:mad: :mad:
Thats not what I heard Cheesy? :D
Laying the 1 Ambitious Tycoon. If this gets up then I start backing my lays.
5 minutes to go till Dubai ( in Aussie)
cheesebeast
29-03-2003, 16:25
I do have some standards, please delete that photo as it's making me feel ill.
No . Im going to leave it up as your punishment:D
Can anyone tell me who won the last? Tell me it wasnt the 1 horse....
Where are you listening to Dubai, Ima ? Does anyone have a better option than William Hill Radio ?
Hmmm..Im not listening to anything as Im about to get cut off from my connection ( used too much this week)
Listening to radio will just suck it dry and I would hate going to 28.8 speed till Tuesday.
I did go to log in to HKJC site for one race but it had already been shut off.
I was hoping that SKY channel would show some races on TV??? But I guess that is hoping for too much.
Thanks JB...I actually made a ( small) profit on tonights races then....:p :p :p
Thats good UFO - naturally with plenty of longshots winning i had a super night - pity the 2nd horse in the last got beat , i had it running for a million on BF - will post some of the action shortly.
Thanks JB...your reports are always very interesting!!!
Glad to hear that you had a great night. :rolleyes: :D :D :D
Its a bit long , hope i didnt make too many mistakes ?
R1) The World of Love payed $2.4 but on BF some punters got $2.96 (sml) - $44,294 was matched at $2.64 - clearly the main horse punters wanted to back was the winner , the paper i printed out says HK $53,481 was the grand total matched & $49,796 was on the winner - at the death there was plenty of money wanted to get set at $2.62 but no layers.
R2) Not much action on the whole race here . Gorgeous Years payed $3.35 but some punters got $6.6 - plenty of backers here & big lack of layers ,it closed at $3.7 with only $3741 on him.
R3) Princely Horse payed $33.65 - on BF someone had $2750 on him at $50 but he closed at $30 - the big money was on Waialae Win - Punters were keen to follow the plunge on Golden Maple but big lack of layers.
R4) Main Attraction payed $20.4 - only $1456 was on him - there were layers here willing to bet money around the same price however there was a lack of backers but someone got set early at $60 for $612 - Not much action on the race.
R5) Buddies Power payed $19.2 - i missed the printouts for the amounts here but there was a bit of money available early at $20 , he closed at $16 .
R6) Blue Stitch payed $5.4 - on BF there was a fair bit available at $7.2 & closed at $7.4 - again a lack of backers but $16,554 was invested on him - someone early managed to get $8.8.
In the market , 50k was looking for a layer at $3.85 for Perpetual Pleasure but he couldnt get set - punters wantd to back Explosive Power but couldnt get set - plenty of action also on Smart Chief.
R7) Strategius payed $2.45 , he was smashed in on the tote - no big action in this race - at the death the winner got bashed in from $5 to close at $ 3.6 - some early punters got $5.7 & $5.6 - total matched for the winner was $34,071.
R8) Mendoza payed $29.4 - a roughie like him had a big lack of layers , to get set you had to take less than tote odds , some punters did & $19,586 went on at $26.
The big money went on Celestial Magic ,at the death they were still trying to get on him at $3.2 for over 60k...prob a stack more available ?
R9) Little Elephant payed $3.4 , he closed at $4.2 on BF - there was a lack of layers for him & only $28,134 managed to get matched - no heavy action n this race but bits & pieces on half the feild ?
R10) Morpheous payed $3.15 - he was a drifter on the tote & BF - closed at $4.3 - some early punters were keen & only took $2.4 but at the death no one wanted to back him - big money came for Seasons Knack but not many were willing to lay .
The bet i had on Silent Partner in the last was a good one & deserved a better result - i put 5k out at $150 & got set & also backed him at $140 ($1153) - layed a few others also & would have won over 900k if he won - just shows its possible to get set for good money now on BF - listenning to Darren it sounded stiff but its not my first one.
naturally with plenty of longshots winning i had a super night - pity the 2nd horse in the last got beat
Congratulations on your super night! In fact, because quite a few favourites won, I thought you would have been taken to the cleaners laying them. Tough luck with Silent Partner. Without giving too much away, what made you back the horse since it lost the last two races by more than 30 lengths?
Well, I backed Silent Partner too - his last run over 2200 at Happy Valley can be ignored when assessing form for a Shatin 1600, and he was wide and gave up when behind Dynamic Fun over 1800. His previous two runs were competitive in class 2 company (admittedly over 2000 metres). His last Shatin 1600 (16 months ago) saw him finish a length behind the winner in a class 2 field. I rated him a $25 shot, so anyone who understands value would have backed him at $100+
Form turnarounds when changing course and distance are prevalent in HK (Even Tilden springs to mind) and I keep an open mind to them.
JB - i may be insulting your intelligence, but do you divide the matched bets by 2 when doing your figures?
Tosser , your right , those matched figures ,they should be divided in half .
Masun , my thoughts about Silent Partner were v-similair to Tossers - before the race i rated him a $30 shot based on some old form & when hearing the JC price ($91) , i was prepared to re-assess him out to $50 - anyway i usually throw about 4 or 5 bets onto the market at a lot better value than i`ve marked , surprisingly some of them get taken....this bet fits into that category - rated him $50 & he was paying $91 (jc) so was happy to throw a bet out there at $150 & hope to get some bites .
Actually i need to rephrase my call on having a super night to an ok one - a couple of thoses shortys did do some damage.
Not easy to win on BF , i`ve had a rollercoaster ride & am currently about even - winning on the laying & losing on the backing - theres some sharp punters on there & no doubt some are sharper than me .
There's little doubt that JB is lengths ahead of the rest of us.
Clearly not true Jack but i do like putting up all the info on BF so others can view , i`m sure theres some other info on BF i might be missing out on....any thoughts ?
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