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RaymondSD
14-02-2002, 21:02
What a great Derby field this year. I would rate it better than last year, and prior to that I don't have an opinion.
What do others think about the quality.
Don't sell out on All Thrills Too, his run was good today. I also thought he was ridden well.
Homer J.
14-02-2002, 22:44
Even a dope like me knows the Derby is down to two horses. Either Olympic Express or Precision.
Smithers
14-02-2002, 22:45
All Thrills Too ?? Will not stay and is a 100-1.
I was disapointed with the run from Jeune Kingprawn today, he was in the right part of the track but lacked the usual kick , having not raced for 8 months then backing him up 2 weeks later in the Stewards Cup was probably a mistake ?
No standouts ,Derby looks quite open.
Smithers
15-02-2002, 10:24
How long before they switch Jeune King Prawn to Ivan in the hope he can take him to the next level as he did with Fairy KP. Ricky Yiu will never get him to the next level. That is, provided the horse is capable of rising to a higher level?
[quote]Originally posted by Homer J.:
Even a dope like me knows the Derby is down to two horses. Either Olympic Express or Precision.
Precision is a PPG. The past Derbys have mostly been won by PP's rather than PPG's. This is not difficult to understand. PPG's start their careers with a lower rating. The have to rake up a few wins to qualify for Derby. By the time Derby comes around, a PPG may have peaked already.
On the other hand, because PP's start with a higher rating, they have a less strenuous campaign to qualify for the Derby.
From what I can remember, Keen Winner which won the Derby two seasons ago is the only PPG winner in recent years. Keen Winner paid a heavy price for that victory -- it has not even placed since that day.
Smithers
15-02-2002, 13:47
Olympic Express and Precision look top fancies for sure. The problem for Precision is more the jockey than the strenuous campaign to get into the race. Simon Yim's uncle owns the bloody thing and this is why this kamikaze pilot keeps riding him.
Fancy putting Yim on to chase a Derby.
Also, we probably shouldn't write off Aucash or even Danamite if it found its true form in time.
Just dug out my old racing forms to see if I can identify anything the Derby winners have in common. After staring at the forms for hours, I have this revelation:
98 - Johan Cruyff, Saddlecloth #7
99 - Holy Grail, Saddlecloth #7
00 - Keen Winner, Saddlecloth #9
01 - Industrial Pioneer, Saddlecloth #9
After consulting my elementary textbook on arithmetic progressions, I boldly predict that this year, and the next as well, the Derby will be won by horse #11.
Seems a good enough reason to me!
After reviewing the meeting , its hard to see how Olympic Express can get beaten ,sat off the track yet was far too strong , I Allan says its only 90% & will love the step up to 2000 metres.
Aucash had a soft run but was found wanting.
Danger is Precision.
Can Olympic Express step up to 2000m?
All I know is that OE is sired by Bishop of Cashel which only won from 1400 to 1600. Any breeding expert here to shed more light on this?
It's worth recalling what happened in '99. Hayes's Resfa won an impressive 1600m race on Feb 6, winning by 3 lengths. Resfa was the overwhelming favourite to win the Derby, but couldn't handle the extra 200m -- the Derby was still a 1800m then -- and only finished 4th. The race was won by Holy Grail, triggering some of the highest dividends ever in HK. The dividends were:
Win - $1,839
Quinella - $18,872.5
Tierce - $499,350
These were some of the highest, if not the highest, dividends at the time.
So if Olympic Express is going to be made an odds-on favourite for the Derby, I am prepared to bet against it and seek my "Holy Grail".
corkey boy
16-02-2002, 13:59
I'd prefer Olympic Express to Precision at this stage for similar reasons put forward by Masun.
I wouldn't write off Aucash and Magical Warrior at this stage and Dynamite a chance but faces a race against time to get ready.
Perhaps the only horse that could emerge out of the woodwork is River Centain. It has been nominated for the Derby and given its prep, the debut performance was outstanding.
This Goggles might be one to consider after a slashing run today. He looks a bit of a head-case still, but it was a good effort.
He and Danamite did their Derby hopes no harm at all. Danamite apparently has a minor leg problem but he showed some quality today.
Both are improvers. I'm still going with Olympic Express, but it does shape as one of the stronger Derby fields.
Goggles ran well, but getting too far back will be his problem and eventual downfall. I can see him running into a place, but as for winning the Derby I think that there are three better horses. I will leave you to decide who they are...hint..one of them is Precision. :p
I also love Precision, but his problem could be the owner....who is the uncle of Simon Yim and will probably put that dopey kid back on the horse.
A decision to rival "let's change the taste of Coke" :rolleyes:
Seems people have forgotten about Jeune King Prawn ... improving in leaps and bounds as each day goes by.
But I agree with corky boy. Don't think Ivan would be losing any sleep over today's events but full credit must be given to DAHayes. Danamite has been wrapped up in a ball of cotton (for legit reasons) and his run today had BasilM chattering like WanChai Wendy sitting on a block of ice on his return to scale - swear he'd won the race.
JSize pretty unhappy with Dunn after his stupid ride on MWarrior - said 2 sentences to him and walked away ... I wouldn't have wasted my breath. Shame as the chesnut may now miss the field - nice horse. All in all, should be a tiptop Derby field.
corkey boy
03-03-2002, 23:24
Olympic Express still for me at this stage. If Dynamite comes out its run ok and it gets some work into it I might be persuaded. His two runs this prep included no fast work at all but he showed how classy he is by running great races.
i know SFA about the derby or the chances of any of the hopefuls but corkey boy, you seem to be watching the twork carefully ??
Steppin Short
04-03-2002, 05:34
Goggles has to be a big chance, Danamite, if he makes the field injury free (there are some problems I believe) and Olympic Express, throw in Precision into a 4 way box and I reckon you'd be close to the trifecta.
Jeune King Prawn may just fail at the ground.
MWarrior was given an almost imposible chance to qualify, not Dunns ride, the horse is not up to that quality. Possibly just a class 3 performer.
corkey boy
04-03-2002, 22:08
Yes hobbes, you could say I moniter the trackwork side of things quite closely but it's more than just the trackwork factor which determines a horses performance as Dynamite has proven twice already.
Horny Harry
05-03-2002, 00:46
And dont forget Aucash....what has happenned to him?
Aucash trialling today (Tuesday). See if you can take even money that he appears on Derby day with blinkers and ridden quietly.
________
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Tony Soprano
05-03-2002, 15:16
I shopped early and got 5-2.....because I know da blinkers will be on. He's already had dem on in training and gone like a bomb.
And I told the trainer he'd better have em on or I'll send Pauly round to the stables!
:) ;) :p :confused: :rolleyes: :cool: :(
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